UBS: Trump Tariffs the Biggest Risk to Global Economic Outlook
UBS Group Chief Economist Arend Kapteyn stated that Trump’s proposed tariff policies could greatly affect global economic growth. UBS forecasts that global growth will slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% this year. If Trump imposes tariffs, US trade restrictions could reach levels not seen since the 1930s, adding additional downside risks to the forecast.
Donald Trump Nominates 6 Candidates for CFTC Chairmanship
Donald Trump, the new leader of the US who will take the presidency on January 20, has accelerated his appointment efforts for regulatory agencies. Trump, who made his decision for the SEC chairmanship, has now identified 6 candidates for the CFTC. Among these candidates are two names known from the crypto world. The decision on who will be the new chairman is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.
Microsoft to Invest $3 Billion in India
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced that they will invest $3 billion over the next two years to expand India’s potential in the cloud computing and artificial intelligence sectors. Nadella stated that India has a large AI talent pool and that they plan to provide AI training to 10 million people by 2030.
Solana ETF Developments
Solana could outperform Bitcoin and Ether if a potential US-based SOL ETF is approved in 2025. Retail profit expectations are expected to increase with this possible ETF launch.
Circle Donates $1 Million to Trump Inaugural Committee
Circle donated $1 million USDC to President Trump’s Inaugural Committee, according to Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire. This development indicates that Circle aims to increase its influence in the political arena.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
Time
News
Previous
All Day
Holiday United States – National Day
–
17:45
US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
–
18:30
US FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
–
18:35
US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
–
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations
MARKET COMPASS
Concerns over the inflation outlook on a global scale, Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) favoring slower interest rate cuts have been the factors that reduced risk appetite in recent days. In this context, rising bond yields shaped pricing behavior.
Wall Street indices will be closed today, but a recovery effort is noteworthy in European stock markets. While the halt in US bond yields after the last five-day rise has given the markets some breathing space, digital assets continue to feel the pressure. Later in the day, FOMC officials’ speeches at various organizations may be effective. However, markets seem to have accepted that the FED will cut interest rates at a slower pace. Therefore, unless there is an extraordinary statement, the evaluations to be made may have a limited impact on prices. The dynamic that will determine the direction for the short term seems to be tomorrow’s US employment data. Click here to review the evaluations we made in our weekly strategy report on the subject.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US and the emergence of BTC as a reserve continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Although it is expected to continue at a slower pace, the preservation of expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle and the volume in crypto asset-based ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest support our upward forecast for the big picture for now. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that we think the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Large whales with more than 10,000 BTC in assets have been selling since September, while investors with 1,000-10,000 BTC have accelerated their selling in recent weeks, Glassnode reported. According to CryptoQuant data, US-based organizations hold 65% of global Bitcoin reserves. While the whales’ selling is depressing the price, the US’s growing reserves are shifting the balance of power in the market.
When we look at the technical outlook with the latest data, we can see that the selling pressure in the market continues. BTC, which pushed the 92,800 level during the day, is currently trading at the level of 92,200, falling below this level. When we look at the technical oscillators, weakness is deepening in the momentum indicator while continuing to maintain the weakening sales signal. If the decline deepens, 91,700 and then 90,000 levels can be tested. If the price reacts from these levels, closures above 92,800 will be followed and then the major resistance level of 95,000 can be targeted. Supports: 91,700 – 90,000 – 88,500 Resistances: 92,800 – 95,000 – 97,200
ETH/USDT
ETH is showing a market structure where trading volume remains low during the day. The price is trying to hold on to the support at 3,293, but the closes below this level indicate that the support is weakening. If the selling pressure continues, the risk of a downside break increases.
The RSI indicator has turned down again in the oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure persists across the market and the prospects for a recovery in the short term are limited. Moreover, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains flat in the negative territory, indicating that capital flows are on the sell side. The weakness of buyers supports the continuation of selling pressure.
If the critical support level of 3,293 is broken downwards, the price is likely to retreat to 3,131. 3,131 draws attention as a region where heavy trading volume has been realized in the past and buyer demand is strong. In upward movements, the 3,293 level should be monitored as the main resistance point. In case of multiple daily closes above this level, the price may start a move towards 3,382 levels
XRP, which was heavily affected by the decline in bitcoin, broke the positive outlook in the morning hours and fell deeply after losing the 2.32 level. If we look at the technical indicators for XRP, which is trying to hold on to 2.25 support momentarily,
The positive divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator attracts attention. Although the RSI indicator has turned down with the recent decline, the divergence between it and the price can be considered as a positive signal. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), on the other hand, continues to present a positive picture by maintaining its level relatively despite the price decline despite being in the negative zone. In the Ichimoku indicator, the breakout of the kumo cloud looks quite negative and the inability to regain this level strengthens the negative outlook.
With all these data, provided that the kumo cloud is regained, some reaction buying and rises up to 2.32 levels can be expected. However, closures below the 2.25 level may bring declines to lower support zones.
As the countdown to the highly anticipated launch of Firedancer approaches, Solana network participants are laying critical groundwork to support the upcoming client. Anza, a leading research and development firm spun out of Solana Labs, is encouraging testnet validators to move to a prototype client, Frankendancer, in late January after completing routine testing on Agave v2.1.7
Solana price has fallen below the support levels and is unable to recover the lost levels. Increasing selling pressure may drag the asset down in the coming days. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) broke the 200 EMA (Black Line) to the downside. This may increase the pullback. The Nov 23 downtrend support is now acting as resistance. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator is in negative territory and inflows have started to decline. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator reached the oversold level. However, there is a positive mismatch. The 222.61 level appears to be a very strong resistance place in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 181.75 support level can be triggered. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Senator Joni Ernst emphasized the importance of D.O.G.E., the newly created Department of Government Efficiency spearheaded by billionaire entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, saying taxes should not be wasted. “Doge is inevitable,” he said, urging other senators and politicians to join the initiative.
Looking at the chart, since our analysis yesterday, the asset has moved horizontally since yesterday’s analysis, breaking down the bullish support that has been in place since December 20. At the same time, the asset broke the base level of the symmetrical triangle pattern. Thus, important support levels were breached and the retreat deepened. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) coincided with the 200 EMA. This may be the stage to decide where the asset will go. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in the negative zone and money outflows are increasing. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in oversold territory. The price continues to be below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA. This may increase the selling pressure. The 0.42456 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the innovations in the DOGE coin. If DOGE catches a new momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible pullbacks due to macroeconomic reasons or negativity in the ecosystem, the 0.28164 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.28164 – 0.25025 – 0.21154
Resistances 0.33668 – 0.36600 – 0.42456
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
