MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 101,724.11 | -0.80% | 58.50% | 2.02 T |
| ETH | 3,097.17 | -2.41% | 10.83% | 373.51 B |
| XRP | 3.052 | -3.01% | 5.10% | 176.00 B |
| SOLANA | 227.03 | -3.97% | 3.20% | 110.57 B |
| DOGE | 0.3232 | -2.48% | 1.39% | 47.78 B |
| CARDANO | 0.9192 | -3.93% | 0.94% | 32.28 B |
| TRX | 0.2380 | -3.10% | 0.59% | 20.50 B |
| LINK | 22.77 | -4.18% | 0.42% | 14,50 B |
| AVAX | 32.37 | -4.17% | 0.39% | 13,29 B |
| SHIB | 0.00001810 | -3.98% | 0.31% | 13,29 B |
| DOT | 5.647 | -3.80% | 0.25% | 8,69 B |
*Prepared on 1.29.2025 at 14:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Expectations Ahead of the First FED Rate Decision of 2025
Standard Chartered Bank: The Fed is expected to adopt a wait-and-see policy on rate cuts this month. It is thought that Powell will not want the FOMC to take a more hawkish stance.
Goldman Sachs: The January meeting is unlikely to bring any big surprises in terms of policy. It is unlikely that there will be guidance pointing to June and September for a possible rate cut in March.
Bank of America: The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged is supported by strong economic data and positive expectations for the labor market. It is anticipated that Powell will want to provide flexibility for the March decision.
JPMorgan Chase: While rates are expected to be held steady, it remains to be seen how the Fed will evaluate the Trump administration’s policies at the March meeting. Possible policy changes are carefully monitored.
Fed to Maintain Rate Cut Bias, Even if Rate Cuts Suspended
Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets analysts stated that the Fed’s January meeting will not lead to a major change in the market and the expectation of a rate cut will continue.
Czechia Considers Adding Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset
The Governor of the Central Bank of the Czech Republic, Ales Michl, will formally propose adding Bitcoin to the institution’s reserves. If the proposal is accepted, the bank could buy around €7 billion worth of Bitcoin with 5% of its total reserves of €140 billion.
Nvidia’s Decline Could Lead to a Rise for Bitcoin
10x Research said the DeepSeek-induced depreciation in tech stocks could be a bullish sign for Bitcoin. Nvidia’s depreciation may cause investors to turn to crypto assets.
Bernstein: Investors Think Crypto Markets Are Reviving
Bernstein analysts noted that in their interviews with major investors in the US, investors’ interest in crypto markets has increased and they are confident in the sector’s growth potential.
South Dakota and Kentucky Prepare to Introduce Bitcoin Reserve Bill
Legislators in Kentucky and South Dakota are planning to introduce bills to create Bitcoin reserves. South Dakota Representative Logan Manhart stated that this is an important opportunity for the government.
It’s Not Clear Whether Tether Has Applied for a MiCA License
While the EU has given stablecoin companies until March 31 to comply with the new MiCA regulations, it remains unclear whether Tether (USDT) will apply for this license. Under MiCA, USDT could face higher capital requirements.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | US FOMC Statement | ||
| 19:00 | US FED Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 19:30 | US FOMC Press Conference |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations
MARKET COMPASS
Global markets are eagerly awaiting the results of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, which will be completed today, while potential new statements from President Trump and his team continue to be in focus. Also today, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla are expected to announce their balance sheets after the Wall Street close.
After the turmoil caused by the Chinese DeepSeek app earlier this week, markets seem to be in a holding pattern. Digital assets are not far from their price levels after the recent stabilization. Futures contracts linked to US indices also point to a flat opening. The FOMC decisions and FED Chair Powell’s speech may be the guiding factor for prices.
FED Expected to Pause Interest Rate Cuts
The first FOMC meeting of the year will be held on January 28-29. The Bank is expected to take a break from the rate cut cycle, which started strongly in September, after the latest employment and inflation data. There are even some who think that this break could be a long period of silence.
The statements and guidance following the 25-basis point rate cut in December indicated that Powell and his team wanted to watch the economic data for a while before deciding on a new rate cut. President-elect Trump’s policies, rising bond yields and the appreciating dollar may have had at least as much impact on FOMC members’ thinking as macro indicators. As a result, according to CME Fedwatch, the likelihood of another Fed rate cut in the first two meetings of the year seems very slim. For now, the prediction is that officials will cut the policy rate to 4.25% from 4.50% at one of the FOMC meetings in May or June.
Markets do not expect a change in interest rates today, but clues on how many times the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points each this year and when the first rate cut will take place after the break will be important. At this FOMC meeting, officials’ expectations regarding interest rates and macro indicators will not be published. Therefore, we will have the monetary policy text and the statements of FED Chairman Powell, who will speak at the press conference afterwards. With these inputs, we will try to get information about the Bank’s interest rate cut course. Messages indicating a rate cut of more than 50 basis points during the year or a rate cut at the next meeting may create a supportive backdrop for rises in digital assets. In the opposite scenario, there would be no further rate cuts in the first half of the year, or a total of less than 50 basis points during the year. In this case, we may see pressure on the value of cryptocurrencies.
From the short term to the big picture.
Trump’s victory on November 5, one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. In the process that followed, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US and the emergence of BTC as a reserve continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Then, 4 days after the new President took over the White House, he signed the “Cryptocurrency Working Unit” decree, which was among his election promises, and we think that the outputs it will produce in the coming days will continue to reflect positively on digital assets.
On the other hand, although it is expected to continue at a slower pace, the expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle (for now) and the fact that the volume in ETFs based on crypto assets indicates an increase in institutional investor interest support our upward forecast for the big picture for now. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pause or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that we think the fundamental dynamics continue to support the rise.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USD
The US Federal Reserve (FED) will announce its first-interest rate decision of the year this evening. While it is certain that the FED will leave interest rates unchanged and follow a wait-and-see policy, it is curious how Jerome Powell will respond to Donald Trump’s interest rate cut expectation.
When we look at the technical outlook, the interest rate decision in BTC, which moves at the bottom line of the rising trend channel, is expected to be slightly sold. Trading at 102,000 below the 50 and 100-day SMA lines, BTC is observed to be in a downward trend despite the technical oscillators’ buy signal and the momentum indicator moving into the positive zone. If the decline gains depth, the 104,400 support level is the level we accept as a reference to stay in the positive zone, while the red zone, which is the long trading cluster below six-digit levels, may be retested in case of a breakout. In a possible new bullish move, we will watch the 103,000 resistance point.
Supports: 101,400 – 99,100 – 98,000
Resistances 103,000 – 105,000 – 107,000
ETH/USDT
Although ETH managed to regain the 3,131 level in the morning hours, it has violated this zone again and exhibited a downward movement. In the market, it is generally observed that risks are reduced and a cautious expectation prevails before the FED interest rate decision to be announced in the evening and the speech of FED Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to the technical indicators, the Ichimoku indicator, the price lost its tenkan level, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening and selling pressure is increasing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), on the other hand, has declined in line with the price action and has reached the support level. If the RSI holds in this region, it may be a critical threshold for short-term reaction buying. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, on the other hand, remained relatively flat, indicating that the balance of buyers and sellers was maintained, which means that market participants did not create a significant change in capital inflows and outflows.
Despite the volatility seen in ETH price, technical indicators have yet to produce a clear directional signal. However, movements at critical levels could determine the future direction of the price. The 3,131 level stands out as an important resistance zone to follow in the short term. Closes below this level may cause the negative trend to continue and increase selling pressure. On the other hand, if the price regains the 3,131 level and provides permanence above this region, it may support upward movements and increase the buying appetite. Since the FED interest rate decision to be announced in the evening and Powell’s statements may lead to sharp movements in the markets, it is critical to carefully follow the support and resistance zones.
Supports 2,992 – 2,890 – 2,781
Resistances 3,131 – 3,292 – 3,350
XRP/USDT
In the morning hours, XRP managed to rise as high as 3.10, but with the selling pressure it faced in the kumo cloud, it retreated to 3.05.
Technical indicators show that Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicators are moving downwards. The downward momentum in RSI indicates that buyers are weakening, while CMF’s move into negative territory indicates that capital inflows to the market are decreasing. According to Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data, selling pressure is particularly intense in the futures market. This indicates that the futures market is dominated by sell orders and the spot market is struggling to build upward momentum.
At this point, the FED interest rate decision to be announced in the evening and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech stand out as important catalysts that could create high volatility on the markets. If these developments are perceived positively by the market, it may be possible for XRP to react quickly and realize a strong rise. However, technical downside risks should not be ignored. The 2.98 level should be monitored as a critical support point. If this level is broken, a deeper bearish scenario in XRP may be on the agenda.
Supports 2.9851 – 2.7267 – 2.4727
Resistances 3.1053 – 3.2000- 3.2927
SOL/USDT
Solana ETF applications resubmitted. The Cboe BZX Exchange is moving again for a spot Solana ETF in the US after resubmitting 19b-4 applications on behalf of Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares and Canary Capital
SOL continues to maintain the downtrend that started on January 19, continuing to price at the mid-level of the downtrend. The asset is set to test the 200 EMA as support for the third time. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) remains above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean a bullish continuation in the medium term. At the same time, the asset is between the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA and is trying to set a direction. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in the negative zone, but at the same time, money outflows have increased. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator is in the middle of the selling zone and the RSI is at the resistance of the downtrend. This can be seen as an opportunity for a sell trade. The 259.13 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 209.93 support level can be triggered. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 222.61 – 209.93 – 200.00
Resistances 237.53 – 247.43 – 259.13
DOGE/USDT
After Bitwise also filed an ETF application for Dogecoin, the odds of the spot Dogecoin exchange-traded fund being approved this year rose to 56% on popular betting site Polymarket. Elon Musk, on the other hand, is taking new steps to make his X platform far-reaching. The social media giant is now a digital payment partner with Visa. There is speculation that future updates will include crypto and DOGE.
DOGE has remained flat since our morning analysis. Breaking the uptrend it started on December 20 with a strong downward candle, the asset has formed an inverted pennant pattern by testing the base level of the uptrend as resistance and retreating from here. If it breaks this downwards, the decline may deepen. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean that the decline could deepen in the medium term. At the same time, the price is below the 50 EMA (Blue Line) and the 200 EMA (Black Line). When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in the negative zone, close to the neutral zone, but money inflows and outflows are in balance. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is near the middle of the negative zone. At the same time, the RSI indicator tested the resistance of the downtrend but failed to break it. This shows us that the price is weakening here. The 0.39406 level appears to be a very strong resistance point in the rises due to political reasons, macroeconomic data and innovations in the DOGE coin. In case of possible pullbacks due to political, macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.28164 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.30545 – 0.28164 – 0.25025
Resistances 0.33668 – 0.36600 – 0.39406
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
