MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 98,621.44 | -0.81% | 60.25% | 1,95 T |
| ETH | 2,817.49 | 0.16% | 10.47% | 339,73 B |
| XRP | 2.545 | -2.86% | 4.53% | 146,87 B |
| SOLANA | 206.05 | -2.42% | 3.09% | 100,36 B |
| DOGE | 0.2682 | -1.06% | 1.22% | 39,68 B |
| CARDANO | 0.7711 | 1.50% | 0.84% | 27,14 B |
| TRX | 0.2262 | 1.04% | 0.60% | 19,48 B |
| LINK | 20.01 | -1.86% | 0.39% | 12,77 B |
| AVAX | 27.07 | 1.14% | 0.34% | 11,15 B |
| SHIB | 0.00001642 | 4.36% | 0.30% | 9,68 B |
| DOT | 4.845 | 0.64% | 0.23% | 7,48 B |
*Prepared on 2.5.2025 at 14:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Data Released
Explained: 183K
Expectation 148k
Previous 176K
US Plans to Bring the Stablecoin Market Domestically
David Sacks, crypto advisor to US President Donald Trump, announced that the Trump administration plans to regulate the stablecoin market and attract these assets into the country. This initiative aims to increase control over the financial system, with a particular focus on digital assets backed by the US dollar.
New York Times: SEC Eases Cryptocurrency Regulations
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to downsize its cryptocurrency enforcement team. This move is seen as the first concrete step taken by the Trump administration to reduce cryptocurrency regulations. One of Trump’s executive orders aims to eliminate the over-regulation of digital assets.
Ohio Senator Introduces Bill to Reserve Bitcoin and Accept Payments
Ohio Senator Sandra O’Brien has introduced a bill that would require the state to create a Bitcoin reserve and allow government agencies to accept Bitcoin as a payment method.
Republican Leaders Form Working Group for Crypto Regulations
Republican leaders from the US House of Representatives and Senate have formed a new legislative development working group for digital assets and stablecoin regulations. This group includes members from the financial services and agriculture committees.
FTX Digital Markets to Repay “Convenience Class” Creditors
FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary FTX Digital Markets has announced that it will begin repaying creditors following the collapse in November 2022. Initially, “convenience class” users with claims of up to $50,000 will receive a refund of principal plus 9% annual interest.
Kaspersky: Malware Targets Crypto Wallets
Kaspersky Labs detected malware in some apps in the Google Play Store and Apple App Store. This software can steal cryptocurrency wallet recovery phrases by scanning users’ photos. Users are warned to be wary of unknown apps.
Berachain (BERA) Launches on Binance HODLer Airdrop Program
Berachain (BERA) was announced as the seventh project in Binance’s HODLer Airdrop program. Users who subscribe to BNB Simple Earn products between January 22-26, 2025 will be able to receive BERA airdrop rewards.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:45 | US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) | 52.9 | 52.8 |
| 15:00 | US ISM Services PMI (Jan) | 54.2 | 54.1 |
| 19:30 | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | – | – |
| 20:00 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations
MARKET COMPASS
The main item on the agenda continues to be Trump and his recipes. The President’s remarks on Gaza were also noteworthy. On the other hand, macro indicators and big company balance sheets are under the scrutiny of investors. Alphabet, which announced its fourth quarter results yesterday, fell by up to 7% in pre-market trading after its balance sheet failed to meet market expectations. The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, which shows the change in US private sector employment, came in above expectations and came to the fore ahead of the critical labor report to be released on Friday.
Later in the day, there will be indicators on the calendar that will provide insights into the health of the US economy and of course Trump will be closely monitored. We think that volatility and wavelengths may increase, but price changes may be observed in a horizontal band, albeit relatively wider. The direction in which the trade war issue will evolve and the US macro agenda will continue to be decisive in pricing behavior. As for the longer-term outlook, we see no reason to change our bullish expectation mentioned below, underlining once again that volatility may be high in the short term.
From the short term to the big picture.
Trump’s victory on November 5, one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. In the process that followed, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing expectations of regulation for the crypto ecosystem in the US, as well as the emergence of BTC as a reserve, continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Then, 4 days after the new President took over the White House, he signed the “Cryptocurrency Working Unit” decree, which was among his election promises, and we think that the positive reflection of the outputs it will produce in the coming days on digital assets may continue.
On the other hand, the expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle, albeit on hiatus for now, and the fact that the volume in crypto-asset ETFs indicates an increase in institutional investor interest, support our upside forecast for the big picture. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pause or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth underlining again that we think the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USD
Crypto regulations are changing rapidly in the US. While the Trump administration aims to attract the stablecoin market into the country, the SEC is easing regulations. While a bill for Bitcoin reserve was introduced in Ohio, Republicans established a new crypto working group. On the other hand, US non-farm payrolls, the data of the day, exceeded expectations with 183K.
Looking at the technical outlook, BTC, which moved in a flag formation during the day, made a weak upward breakout after the non-farm payrolls data. In BTC, which is currently trading at 98,600, technical oscillators on hourly charts are starting to give a buy signal, while the momentum indicator is gaining strength. Also on the hourly chart, the MA5 MA10 and MA20 of the simple and exponential moving averages confirm the oscillators by signaling buy. While six-digit levels are targeted in the continuation of the rise, if it reaches, the pattern will gain validity. Otherwise, in a possible pullback, the 95,000 level remains valid as a major support zone.
Supports 97,200 – 95,000 – 92,800
Resistances 99,100 – 98,000 – 101,400
ETH/USDT
ETH managed to break through the 2,781-resistance level by recording slight increases during the day and continues to be priced above the 2,800 level. After breaking the 2,781 level, ETH, which performed a re-test towards this level, regained its bullish momentum with the support it received from here.
When technical indicators are analyzed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves upwards, indicating that the market has increasing momentum. However, the failure of the price to break the 2.875 level may pose the risk of hidden negative divergence. Therefore, the 2.875 level should be followed as a critical threshold. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, on the other hand, continued its upward movement, indicating that liquidity entering the market is strong, suggesting that buyers are still dominating. Looking at the Ichimoku indicator, the price is above the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen levels, indicating a continuation of the uptrend in the short term, while the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen provides additional confirmation that the trend is up.
In terms of technical levels, the 2,781 level stands out as a strong support point in the short term and maintaining this level suggests that the price may continue its upward movement. However, if the 2,781 level is broken downwards, the price may retreat to the 2,501 level with the increase in selling pressure. In order for the upward movement to continue, the 2.875 level stands out as a critical threshold. If the price cannot exceed this level, selling pressure may increase and a retracement to the 2,781 level may occur again. In general, while ETH continues to give positive signals in the short term, maintaining the 2,781 level is critical for the continuation of the rise. Unless the 2,875 level is exceeded, rises may remain limited and selling pressure may increase. A possible rejection from this level may trigger a return to the 2,781 level. However, a sustained pricing above the 2.875 level could support a stronger rise towards the 3.100 level.
Supports 2,781 – 2,501 – 2,368
Resistances 2,781 – 2,992 – 3,131
XRP/USDT
XRP, which fell to 2.47 levels in the morning hours, has recovered slightly with purchases from this region and regained the 2.50 level. Technical indicators for XRP, which moved relatively slightly positive and horizontal during the day, show that the structure for a positive trend has not yet formed.
First of all, the horizontal movements of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator in the positive area after the recent decline show that the liquidity in the market remains stable. Relative Strength Index (RSI) also continues to move sideways. The downward declines of the Kijun and tenkan levels and the fact that the XRP price remains between these levels indicate that the necessary conditions for predicting a direction have not yet been met.
In summary, it may be healthier to act according to the breakouts for XRP, which has a neutral outlook. In this context, 2.64 resistance and 2.47 support should be followed soon. Gaining the 2.64 level could start a new uptrend. The break of the 2.47 level may bring declines down to 2.25 levels.
Supports 2.4719 – 2.2502 – 2.0201
Resistances 2.6489 – 2.7815 – 2.9379
SOL/USDT
SOL maintains $200 support amid the bullishness of ETFs and meme tokens in the ecosystem. On the other hand, there has been a decline in the number of new addresses on Solana in the last few days.
Since our analysis in the morning, SOL has fluctuated within a narrow range and has followed a sideways trend. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could deepen the decline in the medium term. At the same time, the asset continues to be priced below the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in positive territory and at the same time, money inflows have started to increase. However, the increase in (CMF) and the decrease in volume at the same time may increase the decline. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator is at the mid-level of the negative zone and the price continues to be at the mid-level of the downtrend that started on RSI on January 19. The 237.53 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 189.54 support level can be triggered again. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 200.00 – 189.54 – 181.75
Resistances 209.93 – 222.61 – 237.53
DOGE/USDT
Since our analysis in the morning, the price has been trending sideways, breaking the uptrend. This may cause the price to fall. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean that the decline could deepen further in the medium term. At the same time, the price is below the 50 EMA (Blue Line) and the 200 EMA (Black Line). However, the large gap between the moving averages and the asset may increase the probability of DOGE rising. When we analyze the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, although it is in positive territory, money inflows are balanced. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is at the middle level of the negative zone. The 0.33668 level appears as a very strong resistance point in the rises due to political reasons, macroeconomic data and innovations in the DOGE coin. In case of possible pullbacks due to political, macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.22632 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.25025 – 0.22632 – 0.21154
Resistances 0.28164 – 0.30545 – 0.33668
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
