MARKET COMPASS
Trump and Tariff Uncertainty
- US trade policies continue to be at the center of the markets. While Trump’s recent statements on tariffs created confusion, he stated that not all of the tariffs, which are expected to be implemented on April 2, will be implemented and some countries may be granted exemptions. However, he also signaled that he plans to impose new tariffs on automobile and pharmaceutical products. The President also proposed a 25% tariff on all oil and natural gas purchases from Venezuela.
- European stock markets are positive, while Wall Street futures are flat-negative after yesterday’s strong gains and uncertainty over tariffs. Digital assets corrected slightly after rising yesterday as some of the negative sentiment in global markets dissipated.
- Russian and US officials are expected to discuss in Riyadh a compromise for the Black Sea, which could pave the way for a broad ceasefire.
- Today’s US consumer confidence data will be closely monitored ahead of the release of key macro indicators later in the week. In particular, we have seen an increase in price sensitivity to indices that measure consumer confidence in the economy, following the recent rise in concerns about the health of economic activity.
We think that the recent gains in major digital assets have the potential to be maintained. We do not expect any critical game-changing news flow during the day, and we can watch price changes that will take place within the nature of the market. However, Trump’s possible statements and/or a surprise in consumer confidence data may create a new catalyst for prices. For the short term, we think that the bullish mood can be maintained with intermediate pullbacks and we maintain our medium- and long-term views as stated below.
CB Consumer Confidence: It is the result of a survey of approximately 3,000 individual consumers asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. It measures financial confidence as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is published monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets have already priced in the “best case scenario”, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, has been putting pressure on digital assets for some time. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the market and if concerns about slowing economic activity in global markets increase further. We emphasize that there is no problem with a gradual spot asset accumulation strategy, but caution should be exercised in leveraged “long” trades. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News / Event | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Pundi X: OffChainTokyo Conference (Tokyo, Japan) | — | |
| 12:40 | FOMC Member Kugler Speaks | — | |
| 13:05 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | — | |
| 14:00 | US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 94.2 | 98.3 |
| 14:00 | US New Home Sales (Feb) | 682K | 657K |
| 14:00 | US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Mar) | — | — |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
,,The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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