MARKET COMPASS
Trump and Tariff Uncertainty
- US President Trump maintains his stance on tariffs that will take effect on April 2nd. The US policy on tariffs, which increases uncertainty and risks, continues to be the main dynamic affecting financial markets. Finally, the news that the tariffs would not be as far-reaching as expected provided some relief to the markets. We can say that a little more clarity is expected on the issue.
- Ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index on Friday, indicators on the health of the world’s largest economy are being monitored. Yesterday’s CB Consumer Confidence Index was the lowest in four years, keeping recession-stagflation concerns about the US economy alive.
- EU officials met with top US trade officials in an effort to avert new tariffs on European Union (EU) goods, but the outcome of their talks remains unclear.
- In Riyadh, US and Russian officials agreed to ban attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine and to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. It remains to be seen whether this progress will lead to a broader ceasefire or peace in the future.
Global markets, which managed to disperse the dark clouds to some extent with the news that Trump will be more selective on tariffs, do not ignore the uncertainty about what will happen after April 2. On the digital assets front, we see that several positive news flows have contributed to the rise of major cryptocurrencies with the relief in global perception.
Later in the day, we think that the recent upward movement may be limited. Breaching critical resistances may provide short-term euphoria, but we would not find it surprising if the strength of the upside starts to fade, except for our medium and long term forecasts mentioned below. Before Friday’s critical PCE data, the US macro indicators and the speeches of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will be closely monitored today.
shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. This data is usually revised with the Factory Orders report released about a week later and “Durable Goods” are defined as products that last longer than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances and airplanes. It is a leading indicator of production and gives a preliminary indication of the vitality of the economy. Core Durable Goods Orders shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. This dataset has been shown to have complex effects on the value of digital assets.
US DC Blockchain Summit; Policymakers and industry leaders will talk about the regulation and future of the crypto industry in Washington DC.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets have already priced in the “best case scenario”, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, has been putting pressure on digital assets for some time. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the market and if concerns about slowing economic activity in global markets increase further. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News / Event | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Conflux (CFX): Quarterly Call | — | |
| — | DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington, USA) | — | |
| — | Celo (CELO): L2 Activation | — | |
| All Day | US DC Blockchain Summit | — | |
| 12:30 | US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 12:30 | US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) | -1.1% | 3.2% |
| 13:50 | US CFTC Commissioner Mersinger Speaks | — | |
| 14:00 | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | — | |
| 17:10 | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | — | |
| 19:10 | US Senator Lummis Speaks | — | |
| 20:10 | US SEC Commissioner Peirce Speaks | — | |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
