MARKET COMPASS
Trade Wars
- As the trade war continues, it has evolved more into tensions between the US and China. China was excluded from Trump’s decision to postpone other high tariffs.
- Retaliation from China, the world’s second largest economy, continues. After the US tariff was raised to 145%, China raised the tariff on the US to 125%.
- Stock markets, which had a short-lived spring mood after Trump’s postponement decision, continue to look more like sellers. However, after yesterday’s losses, Wall Street futures are slightly positive.
- Interest rates on US bonds, which started to be traded like a risky asset, rose, while the dollar depreciated. The dollar index hit a 3-year low of 99.2. Safe havens such as gold, Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen gained value with the risk-averse mood.
The downgrading of tariff tensions between the US and China seems to have created a breakout opportunity for digital assets. Although we will continue to monitor the effects of trade war news flows in a way that will create both positive and negative pricing behavior as in the past days, if this situation continues, major cryptocurrencies may create a short-term uptrend with intermediate corrections. However, it is important to keep in mind that the markets are sensitive to news flow and uncertainty remains high.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term with the lack of new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and further concerns in global markets that global economic activity may slow down, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and developments regarding tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | 0x (ZRX) – API v1.0 Deprecation | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Core PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 12:30 | US PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14:00 | US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) | 5.0% | – |
| 14:00 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 54.0 | 57.0 |
| 14:00 | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | – | – |
| 15:00 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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