MARKET COMPASS
Tariff Agenda
- Nvidia announced that the US government has blocked the unlicensed sale of some of its artificial intelligence chips to China. The company also noted that it expects to lose 5.5 billion dollars in revenue this quarter as a result.
- The agenda on trade wars, which was reignited with Trump’s latest move, had a negative impact on investor perception and risk appetite decreased, leading to sales in global markets.
- Digital assets lost value as a result of risk-averse behavior, while European stock markets also sold off this morning. Wall Street futures are on the negative side.
- Later in the day, we will see the US retail sales data for March, one of the most important macro indicators of the week. Then US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell is expected to deliver a speech.
- The agenda and news flow on tariffs continue to be the main dynamic driving asset prices. In addition, US data and policymakers’ statements will be closely monitored as they may have an impact on prices.
The short-term rises in digital assets ended with the new moves of the Trump administration. We think that this environment of uncertainty will continue to put pressure on cryptocurrencies in the medium term, and we think that we can wait a while longer for a new short-term rise after the recent declines.
FED Chair Powell’s Speech
Today, FED Chair Powell is expected to deliver a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago. We will be watching closely what he has to say, especially on the potential economic damage from tariffs and inflation. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, at the time of writing, the Fed is largely unlikely to make a rate change at its May 7 meeting. However, a 25 basis point rate cut at the June 17-18 meeting is priced at around 63%.
The chairman’s comments that may cause these expectations to change may lead to harsh pricing. If we look at the recent speeches of FOMC members, Powell may be expected to emphasize that the effects of changes in tariffs may be harsher than expected. However, it needs to be filtered whether he sees this as a bigger problem for economic growth or inflation. If the President emphasizes the need for a rate cut, this could provide some breathing space for the markets and have a positive impact on digital assets. If he emphasizes the continuation of the wait-and-see strategy, the markets’ expectations for a rate cut may be postponed, which may bring sales to risky instruments, including digital assets.
US Retail Sales Data; It is an important measure of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. It shows the change in the total value of retail-level sales and is published monthly, about 16 days after the end of the month. A separate measure of the change in the total value of retail-level sales excluding automobiles is called core retail sales. The retail sales data set is generally expected to have a positive impact on digital assets if it is below expectations.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term with the lack of new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and further concerns in global markets that global economic activity may slow down, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and developments regarding tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Arbitrum (ARB) 92.65MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| – | FastBull Finance Summit Dubai | – | – |
| – | TEAMZ Summit 2025 Japan, Tokyo | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| 16:00 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | – | – |
| 17:30 | FED Chair Powell Speaks | – | – |
| 23:00 | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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