MARKET COMPASS – April 28, 2025
Macro Indicators, Tariffs and Balance Sheets
- While the weekend ended without any new information on tariffs, President Trump’s hints that there would be no new delay for China caused the positive sentiment of the last few days to be somewhat dampened.
- Global markets do not seem to believe that the trade war between the US and China will be resolved within weeks, as US officials have signaled, and it may take months to resolve the issue. Nevertheless, when we evaluate the pricing in the bond and Forex markets, we see that the risk-off behavior is not widespread.
- This week, the balance sheets of major US companies, especially technology companies, and macroeconomic indicators will be under the scrutiny of investors.
- As we start the week, in the Far East, there are rumors that China will not be quick to announce new measures to further support its economy, while in Europe, there is a balance sheet-centered hope, while we observe a cautious stance according to Wall Street futures.
- Digital assets tend to hold on to their recent gains amid expectations that strong institutional demand may return and rumors of new news on the US strategic crypto reserve. The continued acceptance of new ETF applications on major cryptocurrencies also has a positive impact on the overall perception of the ecosystem.
- No significant news flow is expected for the rest of the day, but we think that investors may tend to act cautiously ahead of the US critical macro indicators to be announced later in the week. In this parallel, it would not be a surprise to see a band movement, preserving the recent gains, especially BTC. In particular, we think that US GDP (economic growth) data on Thursday and employment data on Friday will be critical.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda, which started with Trump’s nomination process. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long term. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, create enthusiasm in the crypto market, and that concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually begin to dissipate, and in this parallel, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish expectation. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golem (GLM): Partnership Announcement | |||
| Golem (GLM): Technical Documentation | |||
| Livepeer (LPT): Community Discussion Event |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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