MARKET COMPASS
Global Markets Ahead of FOMC
- Global markets have turned their attention to the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED), which will be completed tomorrow. The Bank is not expected to change interest rates, but Chairman Powell’s remarks will be closely monitored.
- Wall Street indices ended their longest upward streak in two decades yesterday, despite signs that the worst is behind them on trade wars, ahead of lingering uncertainty over the issue and critical FOMC decisions. Futures also point to a negative open for today.
- European stock markets are also on a downward trend. Investors on the continent are focusing on corporate balance sheets while keeping a close eye on trade tensions, especially the negotiations between the US and some Asian countries. On the other hand, the unexpected failure of Friedrich Merz to be elected as Chancellor in the first round of voting in the German parliament also played a role in the declines in European indices.
- The US Services PMI data released yesterday was above the forecasts. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, this seems to have caused markets to recalibrate their expectations regarding the timing of a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, for now, markets do not expect a rate cut before July.
- Digital assets continue to trade in a relatively flat and subdued tone after the recent momentum. In addition to the news flow specific to the crypto ecosystem, the focus of global markets continues to be decisive. In this parallel, beyond the developments related to tariffs, we can say that tomorrow’s FED statements will be important. In this parallel, it would not be surprising to see horizontal price changes in the rest of the day.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, there will not be a development that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market, and concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually decrease. Accordingly, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish outlook. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
Highlights of The Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Casper Network (CSPR) Casper 2.0 Launch | – | – |
| – | Aave (AAVE) X Spaces with MetaMask | – | – |
| – | Spectral (SPEC) 10MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| – | FinTech LIVE Dubai | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Trade Balance (Mar) | -137.20B | -122.70B |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
Darkex Research Department Current Studies
Current Situation and Market Analysis in Bitcoin Futures
Trump Pressures Fed: A New Era in the Spiral of Interest and Confidence
US Bitcoin Strategy: Tariff Revenues on the Table
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