Market Compass
Consolidation After Favourable Weather
- The positive climate created by the concrete steps taken on trade wars has given way to consolidation in recent days. There is a horizontal mixed outlook in European stock markets and Wall Street is expected to start the new day with slight sellers.
US President Donald Trump hinted that he may attend the peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul and hinted that his country’s relations with Iran and India may soften. In addition to the trade wars and geopolitical agenda, markets seem to be worried about the economic impact of the tariffs that were introduced in April but later postponed.
- The key US macro indicators to be released today and the speeches of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be closely monitored. In addition, possible statements from Trump on whether the US is making new progress on trade agreements may be important.
- In line with global pricing behavior, major digital assets are relatively quieter after their recent gains. We continue to maintain our short-term bullish outlook, with the possibility of intermediate corrections and a respite period.
FED Chair Powell’s Speech
Speaking after the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) on May 7, Chairman Powell signaled that the Bank would maintain its “wait-and-see” strategy. We do not expect Powell, who will speak at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference today, to take a different stance compared to his recent statements. However, the Fed Chairman’s speech is always important and any message about the interest rate cut course may have an impact on the markets. In this context, we can consider Powell’s speech among the important developments of the week.
US Retail Sales Data; It is an important measure of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. It shows the change in the total value of retail-level sales and is published monthly, about 16 days after the end of the month. A separate measure of the change in the total value of retail-level sales excluding automobiles is called core retail sales. The retail sales data set is generally expected to have a positive impact on digital assets if it is below expectations.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Considering the recent developments, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
Highlights of The Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Starknet (STRK) 127MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| – | Sei (SEI) 55.56MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| 12:30 | US PPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 12:30 | US Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 12:30 | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 12:30 | US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 228K |
| 12:30 | US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) | -8.2 | -8.1 |
| 12:30 | US PhillyFED Manufacturing Index (May) | -11.3 | -26.4 |
| 12:40 | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks | – | – |
| 18:05 | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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