Introduction
The year 2025 stood out as a challenging period for the Avalanche (AVAX) ecosystem, with both growth-oriented technical developments and global economic uncertainties at the forefront. The global trade wars initiated by US President Donald Trump caused significant liquidity outflows, especially from emerging markets and risky assets, deeply affecting cryptocurrency markets. This caused AVAX, which was trading around $43 at the beginning of the year, to fall sharply to below $15 as of April 7. However, AVAX managed to rise above the $ 25 level in May with the support of the rapid recovery of market conditions and ecosystem developments after this sharp decline. Throughout 2025, the Avalanche network continued to attract attention with its subnet technology, cross-chain integration capabilities and corporate collaborations. These elements have allowed AVAX to strengthen its position not only as a crypto asset, but also as an important infrastructure provider in the industry.
Avalanche (AVAX) 2025 Developments
With the slogan “this is adoption, this is avalanche”, Avalanche continues to grow by making extensive improvements in its network to be present in every aspect of life.
Source: x.com/avax
In 2025, there were remarkable developments in the Avalanche ecosystem:
- Avalanche Bridge V2 and Cross-Chain Transactions:
With the announcement of Avalanche Bridge V2 in January, the speed and reliability of cross-chain transactions increased significantly. This innovation has significantly increased the popularity of the Avalanche network in DeFi and enterprise applications.
- Subnet Developer Incentive Program:
In February, the Avalanche Foundation launched a $50 million incentive program to support subnet developers. This step has accelerated the development of new subnet-based projects, expanding the diversity of AVAX’s ecosystem.
- Avalanche Games and RPG Game:
In March, the RPG game built on subnet infrastructure was introduced by Avalanche Games. This development brought the gaming industry and the Avalanche ecosystem together, expanding the user base.
Source: x.com/avax
- AVAUSD Stabilcoin Launch:
In April, the AVAUSD stablecoin was launched to provide stability within the AVAX ecosystem. With this move, the sustainability of the Avalanche platform in the DeFi space was strengthened.
- Avalanche Events Blockchain Ticketing:
In March, Avalanche Events introduced a decentralized event ticketing platform based on blockchain. This innovation created an important use case by integrating blockchain technology into the events industry.
- Blockchain Collaboration with FIFA:
FIFA has announced that it will build its own blockchain network in partnership with Avalanche (AVAX) to expand its efforts in the Web3 space. This strategic partnership marks an important milestone for Avalanche’s ecosystem by increasing its global recognition.
Source: avax.network
- Avalanche Card – Stable coin-backed card for real-world use:
The Avalanche Foundation has partnered with Rain to introduce the Avalanche Card. This Visa-backed card enables payments worldwide with cryptocurrencies such as USDC, USDT, AVAX and wAVAX. The card is available in both physical and digital versions.
Source: avax.network
AVAX Price and ROI Performance
Avalanche (AVAX) has followed a journey of strong rallies and deep corrections since 2021 that have been notable in the cryptocurrency markets. In 2021, with intense interest in the DeFi and NFT sectors, the AVAX price rose from just $3.1 to $109.37, giving investors a phenomenal return of over 3,428%. During this period, AVAX experienced one of the most aggressive rallies in the crypto market. The year 2022, following the rally, was a period of general collapse in the global crypto market. The collapse of the Terra ecosystem, macroeconomic uncertainties, and risk-averse behavior drove the AVAX price down to $10.85 by the end of the year, resulting in a year-over-year loss of nearly 90%. 2023 stood out as a period of recovery and consolidation for AVAX. Although prices remained flat, there were important developments in the infrastructure of the network; especially the first concrete steps were taken regarding subnet technology. This year offered a positive, albeit limited, return to its investors. 2024 was a year in which AVAX regained momentum. With the expansion of the subnet infrastructure, corporate partnerships and increased DeFi activities, the AVAX price reached $43.12 at the end of the year. Thanks to these developments, the annual ROI was approximately 260%.
| Year | Open ($) | Close ($) | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.1 | 109.37 | 3428.06% |
| 2022 | 109.37 | 10.85 | -90.08% |
| 2023 | 10.85 | 11.96 | 10.23% |
| 2024 | 11.96 | 43.12 | 260.54% |
In the first five months of 2025, when we analyze the price movements of Avalanche (AVAX) on a monthly basis, high volatility was effective starting from January and it experienced a significant depreciation in the first quarter of the year. Especially the sharp decline exceeding 35% in February attracted attention. During this period, AVAX fell as low as below $20. However, the recovery process that started in April gained momentum in May, resulting in positive returns and AVAX gained more than 20%.
| Month (2025) | Open ($) | Close ($) | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 35.7 | 34.42 | -3.59% |
| February | 34.42 | 22.37 | -35.01% |
| March | 22.37 | 18.78 | -16.05% |
| April | 18.78 | 20.90 | 11.40% |
| May | 20.90 | 25.26 | 20.75% |
Technical Outlook
In the first quarter of 2025, Avalanche (AVAX) fell below the $15 level in parallel with the downtrend observed in the crypto market in general under the pressure of global macroeconomic developments. In this process, AVAX traded below the long-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) levels, causing increased selling pressure in technical terms. However, with the recovery process observed in market conditions in April and May, AVAX started to move within the bullish channel structure. In this process, it exhibited a strong technical momentum by breaking the EMA50 and EMA100 levels upwards, respectively. AVAX, which is currently testing the EMA200 level, has not yet realized a daily close above this level.
The bullish channel structure that has been in place since mid-April is maintained in terms of technical outlook. As long as this pattern remains valid, the upward price movement will continue to maintain its potential. If AVAX maintains above the EMA200 level, the resistance zones of $32.79 and $41.82 can be targeted in the first place. If these levels are exceeded, technically, the $55.41 level may come up as critical resistance. This scenario would constitute an important threshold for the bull market to gain strength. On the contrary, if AVAX fails to exceed the EMA200 level and the bullish channel structure is disrupted, selling pressure can be expected to increase again. In this case, the EMA50 level will be monitored as support first. If this support is broken, there may be a risk that the price may decline to $16.00 and then to $11.88, respectively.
Expected Developments for AVAX
In the second half of 2025, several important developments are planned for the Avalanche network. These developments aim to both increase the technical capacity of the ecosystem and expand its user base:
- Avalanche Bridge V3: The third version of Avalanche Bridge aims to make cross-chain asset transfers more secure, faster and cost-effective. This integration is considered a serious step in interoperability with networks other than Ethereum.
- AvalancheVerse: Focusing on the Metaverse, this project will enable users to purchase digital landscapes, create NFT-based assets, and participate in decentralized events. AvalancheVerse targets both individual users and corporate brands.
- Avalanche DAO Structure: With DAO models planned for the development of community-oriented governance, token holders will have more say in decision-making processes on the network. This development is important in terms of increasing the functionality and community engagement of the AVAX token.
- Corporate and Governmental Partnerships: The partnership with FIFA has strengthened Avalanche’s corporate identity. In the remainder of 2025, Avalanche is expected to sign new collaborations to offer blockchain solutions, especially in public services and international organizations.
- Real World Assets (RWA) Integration: Thanks to the Subnet infrastructure, real world assets such as tokenized securities, bonds, real estate products are planned to be integrated into the Avalanche network.
End of 2025 Price Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Bullish):
If global macroeconomic conditions improve, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is favorable for the sector, AVAX is included in the crypto reserves of countries, digital funds (ETF) are created specifically for AVAX, and the Avalanche ecosystem successfully implements the planned updates, AVAX may catch a strong uptrend towards the end of the year.
Staying above the $30 level may technically signal that the rise will continue. In this scenario, the first resistance target will be the $ 35-38 range. If the upward momentum gains strength, the $ 42 level can be tested. This level will be an indicator that investor confidence has been restored. If the $ 42 level is broken, the $ 55 resistance, which was tested in 2024 and could not be exceeded, may enter the target. If this zone is exceeded and sustained, the bull market rally may deepen and the long-term target scenario of $90 by the end of the year may be on the agenda.
Bearish Scenario
Downward pressure on the AVAX price may increase in scenarios such as trade wars, inflationary pressures, investors staying away from risky assets, and failure to make planned updates and problems in the AVAX ecosystem.
A fall below $20, the first support level, will increase selling pressure. If this level is lost, the price may fall to $17.5 and $15, respectively. If below $15 is sustained, market confidence may be seriously damaged. In this case, while the $12 level stands out as critical psychological support, if it cannot be sustained, scenarios below $10 may come to the agenda at the end of the year. This, combined with the exits of large investors and the decline in activity on the chain, could trigger a new bear cycle.
Analyst Opinion
AVAX has entered a technical recovery process after the sharp declines it experienced at the beginning of 2025. In the January-March period, the weakening of the global risk appetite, the new trade wars initiated by the US and the capital flowing out of emerging markets pulled AVAX below $ 15. However, the positive atmosphere in the crypto markets in April had a healing effect on AVAX, especially with the effect of US-based developments. Technically, AVAX’s break above the EMA50 and EMA100 levels has increased the appetite for buying in the short and medium term. However, stable closes above the EMA200 level are needed to confirm the major trend reversal. This level is not only a technical indicator but also a critical threshold where long-term investors can start repositioning.
Although AVAX has entered a technical recovery, certain thresholds must be crossed both on a technical and macro level for the uptrend to continue. Accelerating institutional adoption, spot ETF approvals, growth in the Avalanche network and crypto-friendly regulations in the US may be factors supporting the rise. However, negative scenarios such as geopolitical tensions, regulatory risks and global liquidity constraints should not be ignored.
Disclaimer
This content has been prepared by the Darkex Research Team for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All risks and responsibilities arising from your investment decisions are solely your own.
