US Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Two Cuts Expected by 2025
The Fed kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25-4.50% and didn’t change rates for the fourth meeting in a row. The Fed officials’ dot plot kept the expectation of two rate cuts by the end of 2025, while only 25 basis points of cuts are expected for 2026 and 2027.
Powell’s Statements
1- Monetary Policy Stance and Emphasis on Inflation
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated in his remarks following the interest rate decision that they are satisfied with the current stance of monetary policy. He emphasized that inflation is still above the 2% target despite the downward trend. Therefore, he said that the Fed wants to see more data before taking any new steps.
2- Uncertainty and Tariffs
Powell highlighted “unusually high uncertainty” in economic projections. He said that recent increases in tariffs have put upward pressure on prices and that this effect could become more pronounced in the coming months.
3- Weakening Confidence and Expectations
Powell also noted that recent household and business surveys have shown a decline in confidence and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. He said this was largely due to concerns about trade policies.
4- Wait-and-See Strategy
Finally, Powell stated that the Fed does not plan to change its current policy stance until it has more information about the future course of the economy, adding that current conditions provide “a good position to wait.”
Trump Criticizes Powell
Powell said that the effects of tariffs would be felt over time through the import chain and that price increases had begun in some electronic categories. Following these statements, President Trump once again criticized Powell, calling him “Mr. Too Late” and suggesting that he should resign if he does not cut interest rates.
Probability of a Fed Rate Cut in September Rises to 71%
According to US interest rate futures, the probability of an interest rate cut in September has reached 71%. A total reduction of 46 basis points is priced in for the year.
Crypto Market Structure Act: Senate and House of Representatives Take Action
The Senate Banking Committee has begun to establish the principles of the Crypto Market Structure Act. Following subcommittee hearings chaired by Cynthia Lummis, a full committee hearing is scheduled for July. The House of Representatives aims to pass this regulation, along with the stablecoin bill, by the end of August.
Trump Administration Evaluates Attack on Iran, Decision to Be Made at the Last Minute
According to Bloomberg, the US is considering launching a military attack on Iran this weekend. Trump said he would make the decision at the last minute. The foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany will hold nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday.
Iran: Israeli Command Centers Targeted, Retaliation Will Continue
According to Iran’s official news agency, missile strikes carried out in the morning targeted the command and intelligence units of the Israeli Defense Forces. Iran’s foreign minister said Israel would pay the price for the attack. The Israeli army has gone on alert against new missile strikes from Iran.
Iran Issues Warning to US: Map of Military Bases Within Missile Range Published
According to CCTV News, Iran’s official news agency Tasnim published a map on June 19 showing that 10 US military bases in the Middle East are within range of Iranian missiles. This statement came as a direct response to growing threats of possible US air strikes against Iran. According to a Bloomberg report on June 18, citing senior US officials, Washington is preparing for a military operation against Iran in the coming days, with the attack possibly taking place over the weekend.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: “We will defend ourselves if the US intervenes”
In a statement, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Tehran would be forced to defend itself if the US took action to directly support Israel. “Our advice to the US is this: If you cannot stop Israel’s aggression, at least do not intervene.” The official emphasized that Iran does not want war and has no intention of escalating the conflict.
Nobitex Hacked, Pro-Israel Hacker Group Claims Responsibility for Attack
An attack on the Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex resulted in a loss of $81.7 million. The Israel-backed hacker group Predatory Sparrow claimed responsibility for the attack and announced that it would publish the source code and internal data within 24 hours.
Fitch: US Fiscal Outlook Challenging, Deficits to Persist
Fitch Ratings forecasts that the budget deficit, which stands at 8% of GDP in 2024, will fall to 7.1% in 2025 but rise again to 7.6% in 2026. The agency emphasized that mandatory welfare reforms are critical for medium-term fiscal sustainability.
US Treasury Secretary: Cryptocurrencies Strengthen the Dollar’s Hegemony
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said that cryptocurrencies do not threaten the status of the US dollar, but that stablecoins will help reinforce the dollar’s global supremacy. Bessant noted that digital assets need to be more integrated with government policies.
Goldman Sachs: Tariffs May Not Take Effect on July 9
Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius said that the US may prefer to continue negotiations rather than implement the planned reciprocal tariffs on July 9. However, targeted 25% tariffs on the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors are still expected to be implemented.
UK Plans to Introduce Strict Crypto Regulations for Banks
David Bailey of the Bank of England announced plans to introduce new regulations limiting banks’ exposure to crypto assets to less than 1% by 2026. These regulations will be shaped in line with the Basel Committee’s recommendations.
US Department of Justice Seizes $225 Million in Crypto Fraud
The US Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit to seize $225 million in digital assets linked to crypto investment fraud. The operation is the largest crypto asset seizure in US history. Over 400 victims are believed to have been defrauded.
by Darkex Research – 1 min read
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