Market Compass
August 26 – US Durable Goods Orders
This indicator shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. This data is usually revised with the Factory Orders report released about a week later and “Durable Goods” are defined as products that last longer than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances and airplanes. It is a leading indicator of production and gives a preliminary indication of the vitality of the economy. Core Durable Goods Orders shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. This dataset has been shown to have complex effects on the value of digital assets.
August 28- US GDP Change
Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices continue to be a challenging factor for the entire world. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plan for the future. This situation has some implications. The most important of these is a slowdown or fluctuation in economic activity… In this respect, it will be important to see how much the US economy grew in the second quarter of the year. According to the first estimate, the US economy grew by 3% in the second quarter, after contracting in the previous quarter. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which prepares this statistic, the US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 (the previous estimate for the period was -0.2%), reflecting the consequences of Trump’s unpredictable policies. This was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022. In the following quarter, we can say that we saw a relatively enthusiastic growth data.
As can be seen in the chart below, the main driver of the fluctuation in GDP (0.% contraction in the first quarter and 3% growth in the second quarter) is the change in net exports. In January, when President Trump took office, trade wars were on the agenda, which affected the direction of economic activity, especially foreign trade. Then, in the April-May-June period, we saw that this item recorded a significant increase with the easing of concerns over the issue and became the biggest catalyst in the GDP rise.
Source: Bloomberg
The new data will be the second estimate for the second quarter of the year. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump’s policies on consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections on the direction of economic growth.
In terms of immediate market reaction, we think that a data above the consensus expectation may increase risk appetite and have a positive impact on digital assets. A lower-than-expected GDP data may have a negative impact from this point of view.
August 29 – FED’s Favourite Inflation Indicator PCE
Markets will be closely watching July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for July for clues on whether a rate cut will be decided at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. This indicator is known as the preferred indicator for FOMC officials to monitor changes in inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
According to the latest data, core PCE increased by 0.3% mom in June. On an annual basis, core PCE increased by 2.8%. We can say that we continue to feel the Trump effect in this data. Our expectation is that the core PCE data will increase by around 0.26% in July.
Source: Darkex Research
A higher-than-expected data may support expectations that the FED will maintain its cautious stance on interest rate cuts, reducing risk appetite and putting pressure on digital assets. A lower-than-expected data may have the opposite effect and pave the way for value gains.
August 29 – US Bitcoin Futures Expiration; Options expirations are written on futures contacts with the same expiration date and usually expires on the last Friday of the current month. Trading volume and price volatility may increase in the days leading up to the expiry of these contracts.
*General Information About Forecasts
In addition to the general market expectations, the forecasts shared in this report are based on econometric modelling tools developed by our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed in line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.
The basic approach in all models is to interpret historical relationships based on data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform in an up-to-date and automated manner, so that every forecast is based on the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working on artificial intelligence-based modelling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) in order to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account in the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept in mind that there may be deviations in forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this monthly updated working set, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
