Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
Both Democratic and Republican temporary funding bills were rejected in the Senate, and the government shutdown continues. The Department of Labor announced that weekly unemployment claims would not be released due to the shutdown. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that fundamentals are strong but that rate cuts must be made carefully, and that the Fed would turn to alternative indicators if the data flow stopped. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump’s request to remove Fed Chair Cook from office and postponed the hearing until January. The White House announced that it had withdrawn E.J. Antoni’s nomination for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Looking at the technical picture, BTC continues to carry its upward momentum with a cup formation. The “W” formation in the broader time frame is completing at the 123,400 level. In the previous analysis, the price, which exceeded the 116,000 level, tested the 119,400 level. At the time of writing, it continues to trade at the 118,500 level.
Technical indicators signaled a trend reversal parallel to the short-term sell signal given by the Wave Trend oscillator (WT) in the overbought zone. Subsequently, the oscillator, which gave a buy signal again, turned upward once more and was observed to weaken as it moved above the overbought zone. The histogram in the Squeeze Momentum (SM) indicator continues its momentum within the positive zone. The Kaufman moving average is currently trading below the price at the 116,700 level.
Upon examining the liquidation data, the 118,800 level, which has long been highlighted as a liquidity zone, was breached along with the recent upward movement, resulting in the liquidation of positions in this zone. This development led to a strengthening of the buying tiers despite the thinning of the selling tiers. In the short term, the 116,600 level stands out as the first buying level, while in a broader time frame, the 112,200 level is noteworthy as an accumulation zone. Looking at the last 24 hours, $236 million worth of BTC short positions were liquidated, while $24.84 million worth of long positions were liquidated. Thus, the total liquidation amount in the market reached approximately $600 million.
In summary, while the US government shutdown has had no significant impact on the markets, the differing views of Fed members on interest rate cuts and the return of tariffs to the agenda are among the key developments. The negative outlook for short-term interest rate cuts regained momentum with expectations of a rate cut rising to 97%. On the BTC side, we are entering the month of October, which has seen double-digit averages in terms of cyclical movements. The cup formation in the technical outlook supports the price’s recovery trend, while liquidity data continues to point to the target zone.In this context, 115,000 now emerges as a critical support area for the sustainability of the rise, and closes above this level could bring the ATH zone back into focus. On the other hand, in the event of potential selling pressure, the 115,000 level will be monitored as the first support point, and we will follow the liquidity zones if it falls below this level.
Supports 116,000 – 117,400 – 115,000
Resistances 119,000 – 117,400 – 115,000
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ETH/USDT
After surpassing the $4,308 level highlighted in yesterday evening’s analysis, the ETH price continued its upward momentum and managed to break above $4,400. This movement shows that buyers remain strong in the market and that the trend is still continuing strongly.
The price closing above the Ichimoku cloud confirms the uptrend and shows that the market has clearly turned positive. This outlook indicates that the trend is based on solid foundations in the short term.
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator shows that long positions have been heavily opened, particularly on the futures side. In addition, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator moving upward in positive territory confirms that the rise is not only driven by futures but also supported by spot purchases. This picture reveals that both leveraged and real buyer demand are entering the market.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has entered the overbought zone. This raises the possibility of a short-term consolidation or limited correction at the current price levels. However, it should not be overlooked that the RSI can remain in this zone for a long time in strong trends.
Overall, the price is expected to rise towards the $4,441 resistance level during the day. If this level is broken, the upward movement is likely to gain momentum. On the other hand, the $4,308 level remains a critical support level. If the price falls below this support, selling pressure may increase and short-term pullbacks may occur.
Supports: 4,308 – 4,196 – 4,071
Resistances: 4,441 – 4,646 – 4,857
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XRP/USDT
The XRP price broke above the $2.8570 level yesterday, strengthening its upward momentum, and reached $2.97 today. This rise clearly shows that buyers remain strong in the market and are keeping the trend positive in the short term. In particular, holding above $2.90 makes it easier for the price to gradually target higher levels.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remaining in positive territory signals fresh capital entering the market and strong liquidity inflows. This indicates that the uptrend is not merely short-term speculative activity, but rather that buyers are demonstrating stable demand supporting the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also continuing its upward trend confirms that momentum remains strong and reinforces buyers’ dominance in the market.
Closings above the Kumo cloud in the Ichimoku indicator clearly show that the trend has turned positive. Furthermore, remaining above the Tenkan and Kijun levels indicates that technical superiority is entirely on the buyers’ side. This structure stands out as one of the strongest technical signals supporting the short-term bullish scenario for the market.
In the coming period, the $2.99 level should be monitored as a critical resistance. If this level is broken, the price is expected to rise rapidly towards $3.09, and buyers’ momentum is likely to increase. However, if this resistance is not broken, the price is likely to experience a short-term consolidation process in the $2.93–$2.90 range. On the other hand, the $2.8576 level is a strong support. Losing this support could lead to increased selling pressure and cause the price to retreat back towards the $2.73 levels.
Supports: 2.8576 – 2.7306 – 2.6513
Resistances: 2.9967 – 3.0927 – 3.1879
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SOL/USDT
SOL price continues its upward trend. The asset remains in the upper region of the downward trend that began on August 29. The price, which broke above the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average and the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average with a strong candle, has maintained its momentum and broken above the strong resistance level of $222.61. If the upward trend continues, it could test the $237.53 level. In case of pullbacks, the $209.93 level can be monitored.
On the 4-hour chart, it remained below the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) and 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates a possible downward trend in the medium term. At the same time, the price being above both moving averages shows us that the asset is trending upward in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) remained in positive territory. However, an increase in cash inflows could push the CMF to the upper levels of the positive zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) also remained in positive territory. It also remained in the upper region of the upward trend that began on September 25. This signaled that the upward pressure was continuing. If there is an increase due to macroeconomic data or positive news related to the Solana ecosystem, the $237.53 level stands out as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken upwards, the increase is expected to continue. In the event of pullbacks due to developments in the opposite direction or profit-taking, the $200.00 level could be tested. A decline to these support levels could increase buying momentum, presenting a potential opportunity for an uptrend.
Supports: 222.61 – 209.93 – 200.00
Resistances: 237.53 – 247.53 – 259.13
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DOGE/USDT
Buenos Aires now accepts municipal taxes in Dogecoin through the BA Cripto program.
The DOGE price continued its upward trend. The asset remained above the downward trend that began on August 14. Breaking above the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Black Line), a strong resistance level, the price maintained its momentum and also broke above the strong resistance level of $0.25025. If the upward trend continues, it may test the $0.28164 level as resistance. In case of a pullback, it may test the $0.22632 level as support on candle closes below the moving average.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) remained below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates a downward trend in the medium term. The price being above both moving averages indicates a bullish trend in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) managed to stay in positive territory. Additionally, an increase in money inflows could push the CMF to the upper levels of the positive zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) gained upward momentum from the rising direct support that began on September 25 and rose to the overbought level. This could bring profit-taking. In the event of potential increases driven by political developments, macroeconomic data, or positive news flow within the DOGE ecosystem, the $0.28164 level stands out as a strong resistance zone. Conversely, in the event of negative news flow, the $0.22632 level could be triggered. A decline to these levels could increase momentum and potentially initiate a new upward wave.
Supports: $0.25025 – $0.22632 – $0.21154
Resistances: 0.28164 – 0.30545 – 0.33668
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TRX/USDT
As of October 1, 2025, the total amount of TRX staked is 44,569,373,022, which is 47.08% of the circulating supply. There has been no change in the amount staked compared to the previous day. However, the market value of TRX has reached $32.4 billion.
Additionally, a total of 4,808,472 TRX was burned yesterday, permanently removing 892,760 TRX from the circulating supply. This situation is leading to increased deflationary pressure on Tron.
Technically speaking, TRX closed yesterday at 0.3415 following the previous day’s rise. It continued its sideways movement in the morning hours and is currently trading at 0.3417. Currently located in the middle band of the bearish channel, TRX is priced just above the 0.3395 support level on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is very close to the overbought zone at 65. In addition, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is above zero at 0.10, indicating an increase in money inflows. This situation signals that buyers’ pressure in the market is increasing and that buying movements may gain strength in the short term.
In light of all these indicators, TRX may rise slightly in the first half of the day, moving towards the upper band of the bearish channel, given its current zone and CMF value. It could then test the 0.3465 resistance level. A candle close above the 0.3465 resistance could signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially breaking the channel upward to test the 0.3550 resistance level. If it fails to close above the 0.3465 resistance level and the CMF indicator moves into negative territory, it may fall slightly due to potential selling pressure and test the 0.3395 and 0.3340 support levels in turn.
On the 4-hour chart, 0.3295 is an important support level, and as long as it remains above this level, the upward momentum is expected to continue. If this support is broken, selling pressure may increase.
Supports: 0.3395 – 0.3340 – 0.3295
Resistances: 0.3465 – 0.3550 – 0.3615
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SHIB/USDT
Trading dynamics in the Shiba Inu ecosystem accelerated significantly today, and signs of tightening on the supply side strengthened. The hourly volume on the SHIBUSDT spot pair on Kraken jumped over 26.691%, indicating a sudden intensification of trader positioning and the emergence of one-sided pressure coinciding with a marubozu formation. On the leveraged side, the liquidation of 12,733,930,024 SHIB short positions in the last 24 hours created a cleansing effect accompanying the sudden change in risk appetite and reshaped the direction of short-term flows. SHIB reserves on exchanges fell from 84.49 trillion to 84.34 trillion, reaching a two-year low, signaling a structural contraction that could facilitate the absorption of potential shocks by indicating a decline in supply ready for sale.
While positive expectations regarding October’s historical performance are prominent in community discourse, the main topics of focus are the need for exchange volume to strengthen permanently not only on individual exchanges but across multiple platforms for a sustainable recovery, the dampening of liquidation waves, and the maintenance of on-chain flows tightening supply.
While the short-term strengthening pattern is maintained in the technical outlook, the decline in volatility despite the increase in momentum and trading volume is shifting price behavior into a more controlled upward channel. The condition of staying above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200, which we mentioned in our last assessment, was confirmed today with a four-hour close, and the price broke out of the squeeze between EMA 50 and EMA 200 and settled above EMA 200.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in positive territory, indicating continued money inflows, but the negative divergence (Black Line) between the price and the CMF points to short-term momentum fatigue and increased volatility in upward attempts. As long as the price holds above $0.00001240, the intermediate resistance levels of $0.00001270 and $0.00001350 remain on the agenda. If four-hour closes are seen above these levels, it will open up room for the uptrend to deepen. The first support level is tracked at $0.00001224. Below this level, the band from $0.00001190 to $0.00001170 becomes the new defense line. In summary, the settlement above the EMA 200 is positive, but due to negative divergences, sustainability requires both repeated closes above the moving averages ( ) and continued volume confirmation. (EMA50: Blue line, EMA200: Red line)
Supports: 0.00001170 – 0.00001135 – 0.00001060
Resistances: 0.00001350 – 0.00001400 – 0.00001470
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