Bitcoin Dips as Fed Liquidity Move Misses Market Boost

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.40 am”

Today’s Key Events

• US October ISM Manufacturing PMI
• US October Manufacturing PMI Final
• FOMC Member Daly to Speak
• FOMC Member Cook to Speak

Trump: Fentanyl Tariff Reduction Possible, China Visit Planned for April

President Donald Trump said he could remove all tariffs on fentanyl-related Chinese goods if China effectively curbs its fentanyl exports. This move signals a new era of flexibility in trade diplomacy in US-China relations. Trump is expected to formalize this during his visit to China in April 2026.

New Details Revealed in US-China Talks

The White House shared new details following the talks:

1. China will allow Nexperia’s facilities in China to resume production. This will enable the global market to once again receive older-generation chips.
2. China will end antitrust and anti-dumping investigations targeting US semiconductor supply chain companies.

These steps are seen as significant progress toward reducing trade tensions in the technology sector.

Fed Injects $29.4 Billion in Liquidity — What Impact Could This Have on Bitcoin?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) provided temporary liquidity to the banking system by conducting an overnight repo (SRF) transaction worth $29.4 billion on October 31. This was the highest liquidity injection since the 2020 pandemic period. The aim was to limit the rise in repo interest rates, ease short-term funding pressures, and provide banks with temporary reserve relief. According to analysts, this is not a signal of permanent quantitative easing (QE); however, it could have short-term positive effects on risky assets such as bitcoin.

Fed Officials Disagree on Policy Outlook

Statements from Fed members revealed a clear split on the direction of monetary policy. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an interest rate cut in December stands at 63%. However, the statements indicate that this probability is far from a strong consensus.

• Schmid (Kansas City Fed): Stated that inflation remains around 3% and that an interest rate cut could lead to persistent inflationary pressures.
• Hammack (Cleveland Fed): Argued that inflation risks persist and therefore policy restraint should be maintained.
• Logan (Dallas Fed): Stated that inflation has not fallen enough and therefore it is too early for a rate cut in December.
• Bostic (Atlanta Fed): Taking a neutral stance, said, “A December cut is not certain.”
• Waller (Fed Governor): Supported the cut, citing the slowdown in employment.
• Milan (Fed Chair): Adopted a dovish tone, stating that “overly tight policy could trigger a recession.”

Nexperia China: Production and Supply Resuming

Nexperia China announced that it has increased its finished product and production inventories through the end of the year and can meet customer orders “steadily.” The company stated that it has initiated multiple contingency plans to overcome supply chain issues and is accelerating the qualification process for new wafer capacity.

Markets to Focus on ADP and Government Shutdown Developments This Week

In the US this week, ADP private employment data and the potential federal government shutdown are the focus of attention. Disagreements among Fed members make the impact of this data on monetary policy direction even more critical. Market participants anticipate that weak employment could increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December.

SEC Reaches Decision Stage on Grayscale’s Spot HBAR ETF Application

According to

CryptoNews, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must approve or reject Grayscale’s spot HBAR ETF application by November 12. No further extensions are possible. Grayscale submitted its application on February 28 under Nasdaq Rule 5711(d), and the process was reviewed on June 12. Prior to the decision, which has been postponed several times, it is believed that the decision on Canary Capital’s spot HBAR ETF, to be made on November 8, could affect Grayscale’s outcome.

CZ Denies Reports of Establishing a Crypto Bank in Kyrgyzstan

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) denied reports that he plans to establish a private crypto bank called “Bereket Bank” in Kyrgyzstan in a statement on the X platform. CZ emphasized that he supports cooperation between banks and the crypto ecosystem, but has no intention of establishing or operating his own bank.

$312 Million Worth of Tokens to Unlock This Week

According to Tokenomist data, over the next seven days, a total of more than $312 million worth of tokens will be unlocked.

• One-time large unlocks (over $5 million): $ENA, $MEME, $MOVE, $BB, $RED, $SXT, $MAVIA
• Linear unlockings (over $1 million daily): $SOL, $TRUMP, $WLD, $DOGE, $AVAX, $ASTER, $TAO, $IP, $ETHFI
• This development could increase the risk of short-term selling pressure in the market.

21 Mergers and Acquisitions in the Crypto Sector in October — A Historic Record

According to RootData, 21 mergers and acquisitions were completed in the crypto sector in October 2025 — the highest monthly figure recorded to date.

• The most notable deals: Coinbase’s acquisition of Echo for $375 million, Kraken’s acquisition of Small Exchange for $100 million, and Modern Treasury’s acquisition of Beam for $40 million.

Additionally, companies such as Aave, Blockstream, CoinShares, Fireblocks, Figment, Plume, Ondo Finance, and Farcaster are also actively engaged in M&A activities. The total number of mergers and acquisitions since the beginning of the year has reached 144, representing an increase of over 100% compared to last year.