Fed Turns Hawkish as Markets Brace for XRP ETF Decisions and Options Expiry

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.45 am”

Today’s Key Events

• Fed Members Bostic, Schmid, Logan to Speak
• XRP Spot ETF Decisions Expected
• $4.7M in BTC and ETH Options Expire on Deribit
• On This Day in History: Bitcoin Taproot Upgrade Officially Activated

Fed Officials Turn Hawkish

Recent statements from Fed officials have weakened the likelihood of a rate cut in December, creating a hawkish sentiment in the markets.

• Cleveland Fed President Mester (2026 voter, hawkish): Opposes a rate cut in December, emphasizing that inflation remains high and that service inflation and tariffs are creating pressure.
• San Francisco Fed President Daly (no vote until 2025, neutral): States that more data is needed for a rate cut; although the labor market is calming down, the picture is still fragile.
• Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (no vote in 2025, hawkish): Opposed the latest cut; says the economy is resilient but sees signs of weakening in employment.
• St. Louis Fed President Musalem (2025 voter, moderately hawkish): States that policy is close to neutral and that room for easing remains limited, with caution warranted due to inflationary pressures.

CME FedWatch: December Cut Probability 51.6%

According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December is 51.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 48.4%. The cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut by January 2025 is 50.3%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point cut is 20.6%. Market pricing has fluctuated significantly in recent days due to hawkish comments from Fed members. This reflects investors waiting for data flow to make decisions.

Macro Data on the Agenda After the Shutdown

With the government reopening, nonfarm payroll reports are expected next week, but the October report is unlikely to include unemployment data. While the November report is scheduled for release on December 5, it is estimated that the shutdown may have caused a weakening in the labor market at the end of October. Trump said the shutdown cost the country $1.5 trillion and called for the filibuster rule to be abolished. During this process, it was announced that TSA employees would be paid $10,000 in compensation.

NEC Director Hassett’s Comments on Employment and CPI

Hassett stated that the October employment report will be released but will not include the unemployment rate as the household survey was not conducted. He said that the delayed September data could also be released next week. He stated that the shutdown may have caused the loss of approximately 60,000 jobs in the private sector. The fact that CPI data is consistent with previous levels keeps the possibility of further Fed interest rate cuts on the agenda.

Trump’s Latest Agenda: High Cost of Living

Trump addressed inflation, housing costs, markets, and immigration in his meeting with Wall Street executives. He promised to reduce mortgage costs by lowering long-term bond yields. He also announced that food tariff exemptions would be expanded to cover products from countries without trade agreements. These steps show that the administration is focused on easing price pressures.

China’s October Financial Data Falls Short of Expectations

Total social financing came in well below expectations at RMB 815 billion; new loans showed a weak performance at RMB 220 billion. While M2 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, a decline of RMB 770 billion in deposits was notable. Weakening corporate and household credit demand, coupled with funds shifting to non-bank institutions, points to sluggish financial activity. Low stock investment activity indicates that risk appetite remains limited.

FDIC Preparing Tokenized Deposit Insurance Guidance

According to Bloomberg, the FDIC is preparing new guidelines on tokenized deposits to enable financial institutions to safely expand their digital asset activities. FDIC Vice Chairman Travis Hill said that moving deposits to a blockchain or distributed ledger environment should not change their legal nature. The guide aims to ensure that banks operate more clearly and in a regulatory-compliant manner in the area of tokenization.

Strong Inflows into Canary HBAR and LTC ETFs

According to SoSoValue data, the Canary HBAR spot ETF, HBR, saw net inflows of $5.37 million in a single day on November 13, bringing its total asset value to $68.8 million. HBAR’s market value ratio within the ETF reached 0.91%. On the same day, the Canary Litecoin ETF (LTCC) saw inflows of $69,800, bringing its total assets to $6.05 million. The data indicates continued institutional interest in altcoin ETFs.

French Court Lifts Travel Ban on Telegram Founder Durov

According to POLITICO, a French court has lifted the judicial control and travel ban imposed on Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Durov was arrested in August 2024 in Paris on charges of failing to cooperate in an investigation into child abuse content and organized crime. Durov, who has been questioned three times to date, has lawyers arguing that the process was conducted improperly. The decision could significantly alter the course of the investigation.

Google Trends: ‘Stablecoin’ Interest Index Plummets

According to Google Trends data, search interest in “stablecoin” fell from a peak of 100 points between September 28 and October 4 to just 13. This decline indicates a sharp drop in global user interest within a month. Regionally, Singapore ranks first, followed by Hong Kong.

The cooling trend may indicate that individual interest is weakening while institutional entries are increasing.

BTX Capital Accused of Hyperliquid Token Manipulation

According to Specter’s analysis, BTX Capital and its founder Vanessa Cao are in the spotlight for allegedly manipulating tokens such as POPCAT and TST. It is alleged that on November 12, they created a $25 million buy wall and then pulled back, causing massive liquidations, with attackers losing approximately $4 million in collateral. On-chain tracking shows that wallets associated with the manipulation may be linked to BTX Capital’s official addresses. It is also alleged that similar tactics were used with other tokens such as ZEREBRO, HIFI, and ZEC.

Bitfarms to Exit BTC Mining Within 2 Years and Shift to AI/HPC

Bitfarms announced that it will phase out Bitcoin mining over the next two years and convert its facilities into artificial intelligence & high-performance computing centers. The first conversion will take place at the 18 MW facility in Washington, USA, and will be completed in December 2026. CEO Ben Gagnon stated that the AI/HPC revenue potential could exceed that of BTC mining. Following the announcement, the company’s stock lost 18% of its value.

ApeX Protocol Integrates Chainlink Data Streams

ApeX Protocol announced the integration of Chainlink Data Streams to support new RWA perpetual contracts. Users will be able to receive price data in under a second on networks such as Arbitrum, Base, BNB Chain, Ethereum, and Mantle. This integration aims to strengthen ApeX’s entry into corporate RWA use cases. The process enhances the platform’s data accuracy and security.

21Shares Launches Two New FTSE-Based Crypto ETFs

21Shares has launched two crypto index ETFs, TTOP and TXBC, which track FTSE Russell indices. The products offer broad access to high-market-cap crypto assets and are regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Although the company was recently acquired by FalconX, it continues to operate independently. These ETFs aim to diversify institutional access.

VanEck Files 8-A Form for Solana Spot ETF

VanEck has officially submitted the 8-A form, typically used prior to listing, to the SEC for its Solana spot ETF. There are currently 10 new Solana ETFs awaiting approval in the market. The 8-A filing suggests the product’s launch may be imminent. The approval process could accelerate toward the end of the year.

Aftermath Finance’s X Account Hacked

According to Sui’s statement, the X account of the liquid staking platform Aftermath Finance was compromised. Users were urged to be cautious against fraud risks. No fund losses were reported on the platform, but social engineering risks have increased. Security teams are working to regain access.

DerivaDEX Obtains License from Bermuda Monetary Authority

DerivaDEX, a DAO-managed derivatives platform, has obtained a license from the Bermuda Monetary Authority, marking the first official approval granted to a DAO structure in this field. The protocol is planned to launch before the end of the year. Backed by major funds such as Dragonfly, CMS, Electric Capital, and Polychain, the project targets institutional-focused derivatives trading. Key figures from DRW and Consensys were involved in its design.

Canary SEI Staking ETF Listed on DTCC with SEIZ Code

DTCC added Canary’s staked SEI ETF to the system with the SEIZ trading code. This product provides access to SEI staking yields in ETF format. The listing could strengthen the institutional access channel for the SEI ecosystem. The market’s reaction will soon become clear.

Musk: “xAI Raised $15 Billion” News Is Not True

Elon Musk directly refuted CNBC’s report that “xAI raised $15 billion.” Musk stated that the claim was untrue but did not provide further details on the current financing situation. The statement implies that xAI has not completed such a large investment round as was reported. This situation shows that AI investment news in the media can be quickly exaggerated.