Crypto Markets Stabilize Slightly as Fed Signals Renew Rate-Cut Hopes

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.55 am”

Today’s Key Events

• President Trump to Sign Artificial Intelligence Executive Order
• ECB President Lagarde to Speak
• Strategy BTC Purchase Details
• Dogecoin (DOGE) – Grayscale ETF Launch Expected

Fed’s Number 3 Revives Expectations for December Interest Rate Cut

• Fed Vice Chair and New York Fed President Williams (2025 voter, moderate): Williams said that risks of a weakening labor market are increasing and that he therefore sees room for a rate cut in the near term. He implied that policy is still moderately restrictive, so a 25 bp cut in December could be possible without jeopardizing the inflation target.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (2025 and 2026 voter, somewhat hawkish): Jefferson argued that the AI boom should not be read as “Internet bubble 2.0.” He said AI companies have strong real earnings and cash flows, and valuations remain significantly lower than dot-com peaks. He noted that the ecosystem is driven by a core of about 50 firms rather than thousands of companies, and that contagion risk is low due to limited leverage.
• Fed Governor Milan (2025 voter, moderate): Milan clearly stated his support for a rate cut at the December meeting. He said that if his vote becomes decisive, he could say “yes” to a 25 bp cut for the sake of internal consensus, despite his preference for 50 bp.
• Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 voter, hawkish): Logan argued that keeping rates steady in December would be more appropriate, pointing to the unnecessary financial and economic volatility that a new cut could create. He said he would not support easing without strong evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected or that the labor market is cooling more significantly. Therefore, he is cautious about further easing and prefers to slow down.
• Boston Fed President Collins (2025 voter, neutral): Collins is taking a cautious line on cuts and still leans against a cut in December. She views the current interest rate level as “moderately restrictive and appropriate for the conditions.” She said she would closely monitor the labor market due to the resilience of September employment data.
• Nick Timiraos – “Williams sees room for near-term cuts” commentary: Timiraos wrote that such dovish signals are particularly significant because Williams is one of Powell’s key allies. He emphasized that the December meeting could be one of the most unusual in recent years, as divisions within the institution have deepened. He recalled that there have been only five instances of three dissenting votes since 2011, and no meeting has ended with four dissenting votes since 1992. He noted that if the Fed does not cut rates, Powell is likely to face at least three dissenting votes, and even with a 25-basis-point cut, some regional presidents may still oppose it.
• Nick Timiraos – “The biggest obstacle is not Powell” commentary: According to Timiraos, internal opposition to a December cut comes from a much broader hawkish bloc than Powell and is growing. He argued that while Trump may nominate a new Fed chair in May 2026 and sharp rate cuts may be discussed afterward, this is not an automatic guarantee for the December decision.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) – CPI Calendar and Data Gap

The BLS canceled its standalone CPI report for October and announced that the November report has been postponed to December 18. The November CPI report will not include monthly percentage changes due to items for which data could not be collected in October. They stated that the government shutdown created an irreversible gap in household and price surveys, which cannot be filled later. Therefore, the Fed will not have a complete set of November CPI data and an up-to-date non-farm employment report before its December meeting.

U.S.–Ukraine / Russia–Ukraine Peace Plan Talks

The US is increasing pressure for a peace framework that, if successful, would effectively share influence over Ukraine between the US and Russia. The drafts include heavy conditions such as Ukraine making some territorial concessions, limiting its military capacity, and abandoning its NATO goal, while promising the lifting of sanctions and security guarantees in return. The Trump administration’s 28-point plan includes a non-aggression pact, buffer zones, case-by-case easing of sanctions, and a reconstruction fund. The process has accelerated as pressure on Kiev to sign has increased, but reactions on the ground and in Europe suggest the plan may change. As talks continue, it is clear that the parties are still far from a final agreement.

Trump Administration – “Plan B” Tariffs Against Supreme Court Risk

The Trump administration is working on alternative tariff authorities in case the Supreme Court overturns the current tariffs. The Department of Commerce and USTR have put tools such as Sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act, which give the president the ability to impose unilateral tariffs, on the table. Officials say that regardless of the court’s decision, tariffs will remain central to Trump’s economic agenda. The intention to reintroduce tariffs through different legal channels if necessary is clear.

Trump: Stockpiling Ends, Customs Duty Revenues to Increase

Trump stated that the excessive stockpiling by companies to avoid tax increases is coming to an end. He said that with the depletion of stocks, it will become more difficult to avoid customs duties and US tax revenues will increase rapidly. According to Trump, this process will further strengthen the US’s economic security.

China-Japan Tensions Escalate

China’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Fu Cong, sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General strongly condemning Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. China clearly emphasizes that it will consider Japan’s military intervention in the Taiwan Strait an “act of aggression” and will exercise its right to legitimate self-defense. The China Maritime Safety Administration has closed some areas in the Bohai Strait and the North Yellow Sea to military operations for 14 days. Japan, meanwhile, is deploying medium-range air defense missiles to Yonaguni Island, 110 km from Taiwan. In parallel, the cancellation of concerts by Japanese artists in China shows that the tension has spread to the social sphere.

Solana – SIMD-0411 Inflation Reduction Proposal

The Solana community has launched the SIMD-0411 proposal, which aims to accelerate the network’s deflation calendar. The proposal aims to make the SOL token economy more sustainable in the long term. If accepted, it could create a significant change in Solana’s supply dynamics.

Animoca Brands Receives Regulatory Approval from Abu Dhabi

Animoca Brands has taken a major step toward operating as a fund manager in the region by receiving in-principle approval from the Abu Dhabi Global Market regulator. Once the conditions are met, the company will be able to manage investment funds within the ADGM. This move is seen as an important part of Animoca’s expansion strategy in the Middle East.

Bitwise CEO: Digital Asset Finance Companies Will Transform

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said digital asset finance companies (DAT) will eventually transform into operational structures. According to Horsley, as the process progresses, many small crypto companies will be acquired or merge. He emphasized that the DAT sector is still in its very early stages.

VanEck CEO Warns About Bitcoin Security

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that Bitcoin poses long-term risks due to quantum threats and privacy vulnerabilities. Speaking to CNBC, the CEO said that if technological weaknesses are not resolved, the company may withdraw from crypto assets. He noted that Bitcoin’s problems go beyond price volatility.

NYSE Approves Franklin Templeton XRP Spot ETF

The New York Stock Exchange approved the listing of Franklin Templeton’s XRP spot ETF. The fund, which will trade under the ticker “XRPZ,” has a fee rate of 0.19%. It was also announced that no fees will be charged for the first $5 billion until May 31, 2026.

Tether CEO Ardoino: “Bitcoin Will Stand the Test of Time”

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said that Bitcoin will survive in the long term despite all attacks and criticism. Ardoino emphasized that Bitcoin represents the right to choose freedom, stating that those trying to undermine it will fail.

Ethena Earned Over $150 Million in Fee Revenue in Q3

According to Tokenterminal data, Ethena broke its own record by earning $151 million in revenue in the third quarter. The protocol’s total revenue reached $599 million. Ethena continues to be one of the fastest-growing revenue models throughout the year.

Perp DEX’s Official Account Locations Spread Across Various Regions

Perp DEX’s official social media accounts report locations from many different regions, including the US, Singapore, East Asia, the Pacific, the UK, and Hong Kong. This distribution shows that the platform operates across multiple regions, targeting a global user base.