Market Compass
New Year Starts with NFP
Bitcoin, which started December at around $90,000, is trading at a similar price level in the first days of the new year. Of course, we experienced fluctuations during this period and saw both lower and higher prices. We assess this situation as being in line with the projection we previously outlined for December, in parallel with the search for equilibrium. As the crypto market begins to gradually leave behind the effects of the Christmas and New Year holidays with the new week, we will continue to closely monitor macro developments.
The most critical development next week will be the US non-farm payrolls data. Although market participants continue to have doubts about the integrity of the data due to the government shutdown, this data will be closely monitored as it could provide clues about the Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut path. Additionally, important macro indicators will be released throughout the week from the US. We will detail the employment market data and other indicators below.
For the week as a whole, we expect to see price behavior in the cryptocurrency market that reflects December’s trends. We will see periods where rapid price changes may be observed from time to time. However, we do not expect a significant rally or sharp losses in value. Of course, there are some risks that could change our roadmap, and these could be macro indicators and statements that could affect changes in market perception regarding the state of the US economy and the FED’s interest rate path.
January 9 – U.S. Employment Data
The first of the most important data points that will provide information about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut path in the new year will be this week’s US labor market statistics. Among these, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be under close scrutiny.
In its August report last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made one of the deepest downward revisions in history to its previously announced data for previous months, revealing that the employment market in the world’s largest economy may not be as tight and strong as previously thought. This data caused the FED to change its stance on interest rates, leading to a reshuffling of the cards in financial markets. On September 5, after seeing the NFP data for August, the release of the figures was disrupted due to the government shutdown. The new NFP for December, to be released on January 9, will shed light on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate cut path in 2026.
Source: Bloomberg
“nfp1 image to be added”
Our forecast for the highly market-sensitive NFP data is that the US economy may have achieved a slightly higher-than-expected increase in non-farm employment in December. At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is low, we see that the consensus (median forecast) in the Bloomberg survey is around 55,000, which is more pessimistic (This forecast figure may change later with new forecasts and new surveys. The average of the forecasts is around 65,000.
Source: Bloomberg
We believe that if the December NFP data falls below expectations, it could strengthen expectations that the Fed may be more aggressive in lowering interest rates, thereby increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact on financial instruments, including digital assets. We believe that data above expectations could have the opposite effect.
January 5 – ISM Manufacturing PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the first business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of , the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
January 7 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and government, by analyzing payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain estimates of employment growth by Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP). It usually gives a hint of employment growth 2 days before the employment data released by the government. Typically, lower-than-expected ADP data has a positive impact on digital assets.
January 7 – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Shows the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. This JOLTS data is closely monitored as job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is released monthly, approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower-than-expected release is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
January 8 – Initial Jobless Claims; This shows the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week and is published weekly, usually on the first Thursday after the week ends. Although it is a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed is considered an indicator of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Market impact can vary from week to week, and market participants tend to focus more on this data when they are more sensitive to recent developments or when macro indicators related to the labor market are at extreme levels.
January 9 – US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment; This is a survey conducted by the University of Michigan (UoM) with approximately 420 consumers, asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It has two cycles, 14 days apart, called Preliminary and Revised. The “Preliminary” is usually relatively more influential on prices and is published monthly in the middle of the current month. If the actual data comes in below expectations, it can have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
İnformation
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments, and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in outcomes that align with your expectations.
