Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 76,670.0 | -0.44% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,228.40 | -1.75% |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,177.1 | -1.35% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,939.02 | -0.43% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,578.0 | -1.37% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 96.851 | -0.01% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 17.44 | +3.32% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.25444 | +0.48% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 66.521 | -2.18% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,531.68 | -6.76% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 74.106 | -12.23% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.34 am”
Today’s Key Events
- PMI to be monitored in US data set
- FOMC member Bostic to speak
- Strategy BTC and Bitmine ETH purchase details
- Ethena token unlock
Markets priced in Warsh
Markets partially priced in a more hawkish policy stance following Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair. Trump stated he was not concerned about Warsh’s Senate confirmation process. Warsh did not make any explicit commitments regarding interest rate cuts during the interview process. Trump publicly praised Warsh’s qualifications and stance. Weekend trading indicated that an aggressive policy shift is not expected in the short term.
- Warsh Policy Stance: Kevin Warsh leans toward a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. He appears to favor a mix of “interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction.” He is critical of long-term loose monetary policies and the excessive growth of the Fed’s balance sheet. He advocates for faster and more decisive action in the event of a resurgence in inflation risks. This approach implies a more cautious Fed profile regarding market liquidity.
- Warsh’s Views on Cryptocurrency: Warsh takes a measured and balanced stance on Bitcoin. He states that Bitcoin does not threaten the Fed’s ability to manage the economy. He notes that crypto assets could serve as a “policy calibrator” for policymakers. However, he specifically emphasizes that Bitcoin cannot replace the dollar. He also mentions that he supports CBDC frameworks in certain scenarios.
- Quantitative Tightening Outlook: US money markets are not ready for a rapid QT process. A temporary balance sheet expansion was announced in advance at the December 2025 FOMC meeting to limit bank liquidity risks. It is considered difficult to reverse this step. The Fed prioritizes maintaining financial stability. The QT process is expected to progress gradually.
- Warsh’s Trend-Dependent Policy: Warsh embraces a “trend-dependent” policy approach rather than being “data-dependent.” He responds only to a limited extent to monthly fluctuations. He prefers to act only when long-term trends become clear. This approach may create a less flexible Fed profile compared to the Powell era. The risk of increased market volatility stands out in this context.
Divergence of Views Within the Fed
Divergence of views among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts continues. St. Louis Fed President Musalem opposes additional rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic is not enthusiastic about cuts without seeing a clear decline in inflation. In contrast, names such as Milan, Bowman, and Waller are taking a more dovish stance in favor of monetary easing. This situation increases uncertainty in the 2026 monetary policy path.
Nick Timiraos Commentary
Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed Spokesman,” highlighted Powell’s post-tenure position. Powell has not stated whether he will remain on the board after his Fed chairmanship ends. Timiraos notes that this situation affects his bargaining power with Trump. The timing of the decision is sensitive due to the ongoing investigation. Powell’s next move could directly impact the Fed’s governance balance.
Interest Rate Policy Expectations
Current labor market and inflation conditions do not allow for aggressive easing. Fed officials are maintaining their cautious stance. With Warsh taking office in May and midterm elections approaching, limited interest rate cuts may be on the agenda in the second half of the year. The market is pricing in expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts. Significant macroeconomic deterioration signals are needed for greater easing.
Market Sentiment Weakened
Market sentiment became fragile following last week’s volatile trading on Wall Street. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair and the sharp decline in precious metals supported the dollar. The dollar recorded its biggest daily gain since May 2023 on Friday. Investors took cautious positions ahead of heavy data and central bank decisions.
Sharp Sell-Off in Commodity Markets
Gold, silver, and oil stocks generally lost value on Monday. Asian stock futures fell as the dollar strengthened against the yen. US stock futures fell about 1%. Spot gold fell as much as 3.5%, while silver lost nearly 9% of its value. WTI crude oil prices fell 4%.
US-Iran Tensions
Talks between the US and Iran have resumed. Trump said a deal could be close. The US is considering a one-time, limited strike scenario in the event of a possible conflict. Air defense capabilities in the Middle East are being strengthened. The risk of escalation has not been completely eliminated.
Russia-Ukraine Talks
The US announced that US-Russia talks were constructive. A new round of trilateral talks will begin on February 4. Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for substantive dialogue. It is said that the talks could bring the conflict to an honorable end. Diplomatic traffic is gaining momentum.
US BLS Appointment
Trump plans to nominate Brett Matsumoto to head the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Matsumoto is known as an experienced economist who has worked at the BLS for a long time. He is prominent for his work on inflation measurements. His lack of political background may alleviate concerns about data independence. The market views this appointment as a technical and impartial choice.
US Spending Bill
The US Senate approved the federal spending bill and sent it to the House of Representatives. Current funding expires at midnight on Friday. The agreement funds most federal agencies through September 30. A temporary funding solution for DHS immigration policies is provided. The risk of a short-term shutdown remains.
Chinese Economic Data
- China PMI Data: China’s official manufacturing PMI for January was announced at 49.3. Non-manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4. Both figures remained in contraction territory. The data points to continued weakness in domestic demand. The market is keeping expectations for additional stimulus alive.
- China Financial Data: China’s public budget revenues contracted by 1.7% year-on-year. Tax revenues saw a sharp decline in December. Public spending showed limited growth. Weakness in land sale revenues continues. Fiscal pressures continue to weigh on the growth outlook.
Panama Port Decision
The Panama Supreme Court ruled that CK Hutchison’s port operating contract was unconstitutional. Panama will temporarily appoint a US company. A new tender process will be launched. The participation of Chinese companies remains uncertain. The decision is noteworthy in terms of geopolitical balances.
Musk Epstein Allegations
Elon Musk once again denied allegations linking him to the Epstein case. He stated that he never attended Epstein’s parties or visited his island. He shared his email correspondence with the public in response to Reid Hoffman’s accusations. Musk stated that he supports the full disclosure of the Epstein files. He reiterated his statements in a pinned post.
FTX Distribution Schedule
FTX creditor representative Sunil announced that the next fund distribution is expected to take place on March 31. The total agreed claim amount was stated as approximately $9.6 billion. Of this, $780 million consists of claims under $50,000. $7.8 billion covers claims over $50,000. Non-customer claims are at approximately $1.0 billion.
Saylor STRC Dividend Increase
Michael Saylor announced that the February dividend rate for Strategy Perpetual Preferred Stock STRC has been increased by 25 basis points to 11.25%. STRC is positioned as a short-term, high-yield credit product that distributes monthly cash dividends. The dividend rate is reset each month. Strategy stated that it could issue shares through an at-the-market (ATM) offering or raise funds for additional Bitcoin purchases.
EU Crypto Tax Warning
The European Commission has launched infringement proceedings against 12 member states for failing to implement crypto taxation rules. Countries receiving warnings include Belgium, Spain, Cyprus, and the Netherlands. The Commission aims to ensure the full implementation of crypto asset regulations. The process aims to increase regulatory compliance across the EU.
Gate TradFi Web Launch
Gate TradFi has officially launched its web version and completed its public beta process. Account, fund, and position data have been synchronized between the app and web terminals. The platform supports forex, commodity, index, and stock CFD trading. Trades are executed via the MT5 infrastructure. Total trading volume since launch has exceeded $20 billion.
Gate TradFi Launch Event
Gate launched a launch event with a $150,000 prize pool between February 2 and 22. The distribution of 1,152 grams of gold under the “Gate TradFi Gold Gift Bag” has been completed. It was announced that the second phase of the event will begin soon. The company aims to bring crypto and traditional finance together under one roof.
Manta Network RWA Partnership
Manta Network has partnered with Pruv Finance for tokenized sports infrastructure. The first product, Garuda Sports Fund ($GSP), invests in sports facilities in Indonesia. The product is said to offer approximately 30% annual percentage yield (APY). The asset will be integrated into Manta Pacific via a cross-chain bridge. Token subscriptions open to the community are planned for the future.
Jupiter Polymarket Integration
Jupiter announced that it will integrate Polymarket into its platform. Users will be able to directly access Polymarket through the “Prediction” feature in the Jupiter app. The integration aims to facilitate access to on-chain prediction markets. The feature is expected to be rolled out gradually.
Grok Imagine Released
Elon Musk announced that Grok Imagine version 1 has been fully released. The system offers 10-second videos at 720p resolution and advanced audio production. During the trial period, users produced over 1.245 billion videos within 30 days. The product was introduced as xAI’s latest step in the field of generative AI.
Warren Calls for WLFI Hearing
U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for a congressional hearing regarding WLFI shares. It was reported that the UAE National Security Advisor purchased $500 million worth of shares. It was disclosed that the deal was signed by Eric Trump. It was stated that part of the funds were transferred to organizations linked to the Trump family.
Token Unlocks
According to Token Unlocks data, major token unlocks will occur this week for HYPE, XDC, and BERA tokens. The total value to be released is expected to exceed $300 million. The unlocks represent a one-time large supply increase. The market is closely monitoring this development.
Base Network Update
Base announced that network stability has been restored. It was stated that a verified fix has been implemented. The team will publish a public report after conducting a root cause analysis (RCA). It was stated that delays in transactions may occur during periods of network congestion. Work on a long-term solution is ongoing.
