Crypto Market Update

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 08.30 am”

Fed to Announce Interest Rate Decision Today

The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision today at 18:00 (UTC) following its monetary policy meeting. Market expectations are largely aligned around the Fed keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range. Alongside the decision, updated economic projections and the “dot plot” will be released, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference is expected to provide key signals regarding the central bank’s future policy path and strategy.

Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of Fed Decision

Investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy announcement, with expectations that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting. However, uncertainty persists regarding the outlook for borrowing costs, as markets await signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials on how they view rising inflation risks driven by the ongoing war in Iran.

Oil Holds Near Multi-Year Highs Despite Slight Pullback

Oil prices edged lower in Asian markets on Wednesday but remained supported near multi-year highs, with Brent crude still trading above $100 per barrel. Iran confirmed that security chief Ali Larijani was killed in an Israeli strike, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. According to Reuters, Iran rejected calls for de-escalation and pledged to continue the conflict, reinforcing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

Gold Reverses After Briefly Surpassing $5,000 Amid War Concerns

Gold initially surged above $5,000 per ounce but later reversed direction as markets reacted to ongoing tensions in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Investors remain uneasy about the inflationary effects of the war, leading to increased volatility in safe-haven assets despite strong initial demand.

Microsoft Considers Legal Action Over $50B Cloud Deal Dispute

Microsoft is reportedly considering legal action against Amazon and OpenAI over a $50 billion cloud agreement that could potentially violate its exclusive partnership with the AI company. According to the Financial Times, the dispute centers on whether Amazon Web Services can host OpenAI’s new commercial product, Frontier, without breaching Microsoft’s exclusivity rights.

Robinhood Fund Makes First Investments in Stripe and Eleven Labs

Robinhood’s closed-end fund, Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI), announced its first investments, including approximately $14.6 million in Stripe shares and $20 million in preferred stock of AI startup ElevenLabs. The fund, which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on March 6, allows retail investors to gain exposure to private companies typically accessible only to institutional or high-net-worth investors, adding to a portfolio that already includes Databricks, Revolut, Ramp, and Oura.

Bitrefill Hack Exposes Data and Drains Hot Wallets

Bitrefill disclosed that a cyberattack linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group affected parts of its infrastructure on March 1, 2026, resulting in drained assets from certain hot wallets and the exposure of approximately 18,500 purchase records. The breach originated from a compromised employee laptop that revealed legacy credentials, allowing attackers to access production keys and exploit gift card supply chains before systems were taken offline. The company stated it will cover losses from its operational capital.

Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Primary Against Crypto-Backed Opponent

Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton won the state’s Senate primary after defeating Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, who had received strong backing from the crypto-focused PAC Fairshake. The victory positions Stratton as the likely next U.S. Senator from Illinois.

Senator Tim Scott Says Market Structure Talks Are Progressing

Senator Tim Scott stated that negotiations around crypto market structure legislation are advancing, noting that a draft addressing stablecoin yield provisions could be released as early as this week. He added that discussions on other aspects of the bill are still ongoing as lawmakers work toward a broader agreement.

SEC Issues New Guidance on Classifying Crypto Assets

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released new guidance outlining how it intends to classify cryptocurrencies, creating several categories for digital assets. Only one category falls under digital securities, aligning with the agency’s core mission of overseeing securities markets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicated that a formal rule proposal detailing innovation exemptions and additional regulatory aspects could be introduced within one to two weeks.

Mastercard’s $1.8B BVNK Deal Signals Shift Toward Stablecoin Infrastructure

Mastercard’s agreement to acquire London-based BVNK for $1.8 billion highlights the growing role of stablecoins as a foundational layer in global payment systems rather than a niche crypto tool. Analysts say the deal will allow Mastercard to integrate blockchain-based, always-on stablecoin infrastructure into its network, enhancing cross-border payments while positioning stablecoins as complementary to traditional card systems. Despite BVNK’s relatively modest $40 million revenue, Wall Street views the acquisition as a strategic move to capture future stablecoin adoption and defend Mastercard’s core business.

Arizona Attorney General Charges Kalshi Over Alleged Illegal Betting

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing it of operating unlicensed gambling services and offering illegal election betting in the state. The case comes as the CFTC moves toward a more supportive federal framework for prediction markets, asserting jurisdiction over event contracts and treating platforms like Kalshi as derivatives markets rather than gambling operators, intensifying the company’s broader legal battles with state regulators.

CFTC Signals No Enforcement Against Phantom Under Certain Conditions

The CFTC indicated that it will not take enforcement action against Phantom when it operates as a non-custodial interface connecting users to registered derivatives platforms, effectively removing broker registration requirements under specific conditions. Phantom described the relief as “unique,” suggesting it could serve as a regulatory template for other crypto wallet providers seeking to offer access to regulated derivatives and event contracts.

World Launches AgentKit to Verify AI Agents Through Blockchain Identity

World, a digital identity project co-founded by Sam Altman, introduced AgentKit, a toolkit designed to enable AI agents to prove they are backed by unique human identities using the World ID system. The solution integrates with Coinbase and Cloudflare’s x402 protocol to facilitate stablecoin micropayments, aiming to transform AI agents into verifiable economic participants. By leveraging zero-knowledge proofs and biometric technologies such as Orb, AgentKit links multiple agents to a single verified individual, allowing platforms to enforce per-user limits and positioning World as a foundational identity layer for an AI-driven internet.