Market Compass
As the Middle East War Marks One Month, Macroeconomic Developments and Digital Assets
Global markets are preparing to close out a turbulent week. As the war between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran enters its second month, uncertainty and confusion persist regarding exactly when the conflict will end. President Trump’s unpredictable stance is not making things any easier for investors. In this challenging environment, Bitcoin and digital assets are once again being priced like riskier instruments. With risk appetite waning and the market’s tendency to avoid new risks, BTC felt the pressure even more intensely after midweek.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin began to retreat from the 72,000 level—where it had risen on hopes of a potential ceasefire, albeit temporary—and was trading around 65,800 as this report was being prepared on Friday, marking a roughly 9% drop from that recent peak. Reports that the U.S. is considering deploying troops to the region for a potential ground operation are causing investors to avoid taking on weekend risk, which is understandable from one perspective.
Developments in the Middle East over the weekend and next week will continue to be decisive for asset prices. Additionally, we will begin to see macroeconomic indicators providing insights into the war’s impact on the U.S. economy. We will assess these data points and developments below.
We maintain our bullish outlook for Bitcoin and major digital assets in the long term. That said, developments related to the Iran conflict will continue to shape the short-term outlook, and risks will remain elevated. The geopolitical agenda will retain its role as the primary factor for markets, which will continue to swing between the scale of mutual attacks and the possibility of a ceasefire.
March 30 – Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts on the first business day of the week. Questions from the audience are also expected during the event. Markets will be particularly eager to hear what the Chair has to say about the economic implications of recent developments in the Middle East. His assessments of inflation and the labor market will be particularly important, as they could shape market expectations regarding interest rate changes. Given the implications of dollar fluctuations and the impact on market risk appetite, the Chairman’s remarks will also be significant for digital assets.
April 3 – Critical U.S. Employment Data and Potential Impacts on Bitcoin
The first critical macroeconomic indicators of April will be the U.S. labor market statistics. On April 3, we will receive employment data for the month of March, and among the data points that will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next interest rate move, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will be the focal point. The FED’s policy rate trajectory, which will also determine liquidity conditions for the remainder of the year, will be important for Bitcoin investors as well.
Over the past year, the NFP—which has signaled negative trends regarding the health of the U.S. economy—surprised markets in February by indicating a job loss of 92,000. Expectations had been for an increase of 50,000 jobs. In January, however, the NFP had indicated an increase of 126,000. Thus, the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( ) painted a mixed picture of the labor market. The fact that the education and healthcare sectors—which had contributed the most to employment growth in previous months—showed a decline in March was the primary factor behind the figure being reported as -92,000.
The new NFP data for March, to be released on April 3, will shed light on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) future interest rate path.
U.S. NFP Data
Source: Bloomberg
For the NFP data, which is highly market-sensitive, our forecast suggests that the U.S. economy may have achieved an employment increase in the non-farm sector in March that exceeds market expectations (based on the Bloomberg survey at the time this report was prepared).
At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is low, we see that the consensus (median forecast) in the Bloomberg survey is around 50,000, which is more pessimistic than our forecast model (This forecast figure may change—and most likely will change—as new forecasts are entered and new surveys are conducted. Nevertheless, it is still important to see the 
We believe that if the March NFP data comes in below expectations, this could strengthen expectations that the Fed might be more aggressive in cutting interest rates, thereby boosting risk appetite and having a positive impact on financial instruments, including digital assets. We also believe that data exceeding expectations could have the opposite effect.
Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators and Developments
March 7 – Eurozone Daylight Saving Time (DST) Shift; Most European countries will switch to daylight saving time, and the clocks will be set forward by one hour.
March 31 – U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Shows the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. This JOLTS data is closely monitored because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a significant portion of overall economic activity. It is released monthly, approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower-than-expected reading is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
March 31 – U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; This index is based on a survey of approximately 3,000 individual consumers, in which respondents are asked to assess the relative strength of current and future economic conditions. It measures consumer confidence as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a significant portion of overall economic activity. It is released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month.
April 1 – U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; this report shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and government, by analyzing payroll data from more than 25 million workers to estimate employment growth, as calculated by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP). It typically provides an indication of employment growth two days before the government releases its official employment data. Generally, ADP data that comes in lower than expected has a positive impact on digital assets.
April 1 – U.S. Retail Sales Data; This is an important measure of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of overall economic activity. It tracks the change in the total value of retail sales and is released monthly, approximately 16 days after the end of the month. A separate measure of the change in the total value of retail sales, excluding automobiles, is known as core retail sales. The retail sales data is generally expected to have a positive impact on digital assets if it comes in below expectations (Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the release date for the data in question was postponed by 16 days).
April 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is typically released monthly on the first business day following the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating sector expansion and below 50.0 indicating contraction. Generally, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) monetary policy trajectory. However, in some cases, it may also lead to price movements driven by the strength of the economy. In such cases, figures exceeding expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
April 2 – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims; This figure reflects the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week and is released weekly, typically on the first Thursday following the end of the week. Although it is a lagging indicator— —the number of unemployed is considered an indicator of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Market impact can vary from week to week, and market participants tend to focus more on this data when they are more sensitive to recent developments or when macroeconomic indicators related to the labor market are at extreme levels.
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
Information
*The calendar is based on the UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is sourced from reliable data providers. The news items in the calendar, the date and time of the news announcements, any changes to previous figures, expectations, and the actual figures are provided by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for any changes resulting from similar circumstances. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for any changes to the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments, and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on an individual basis, taking into account each person’s risk and return preferences. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in outcomes that align with your expectations.
