Geopolitical Developments, Macroeconomic Agenda, and Digital Assets
Global markets are preparing to close out another challenging week. We are currently experiencing a period where the intensity of the war in Iran has occasionally escalated, and the impact of the conflict is being deeply felt, particularly on energy prices. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) announced its highly anticipated monetary policy decisions last week. Amid this chaotic environment, Bitcoin managed to achieve significant gains by continuing to serve as an isolated and alternative investment instrument—a “hedge”—for a considerable period. However, as the week drew to a close, we observed that losses began to dominate following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the FED’s hawkish stance. BTC, which had risen to the $76,000 level on March 17, was trading around $70,000 at the time this report was prepared.
Next week, markets will continue to monitor how the conflict in Iran unfolds. Concerns about the potential economic burden resulting from continued attacks on critical energy facilities in the region will remain a key factor influencing asset prices. Additionally, following the Fed’s latest statements, we will continue to see a series of macroeconomic data releases. However, the calendar is relatively light. Nevertheless, pricing related to the interest rate cut path will continue to be closely monitored as it could remain influential on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
In the short term, we expect Bitcoin to follow a path where it faces some pressure. However, upward rallies would not be surprising. We maintain our expectation of a sideways trend in the medium term and an upward trend in the long term. Below, we will detail some U.S. data and developments that could impact digital assets and the BTC price next week.
Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators and Developments
March 24 – The U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the economy’s outlook. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released on a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately three weeks into the current month. A reading below the forecast is expected to have a positive impact on crypto assets.
March 26 – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims; This figure reflects the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week and is released weekly, typically on the first Thursday following the end of the week. Although it is a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed is considered an indicator of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Market impact can vary from week to week, and market participants tend to focus more on this data when they are more sensitive to recent developments or when macroeconomic indicators related to the labor market are at extreme levels.
March 27 – U.S. Bitcoin Futures Expiration; Options are written on futures contracts with the same expiration date and typically expire on the last Friday of the current month on the CME. Trading volume and price volatility may increase in the days leading up to the expiration of these contracts.
Important Economic Calendar Data
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Information
*The calendar is based on the UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is sourced from reliable data providers. The news items in the calendar, the date and time of the news announcements, any changes to previous figures, as well as forecasts and actual figures, are provided by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for any changes resulting from similar circumstances. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for any changes to the content and timing of data releases.
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