Market Compass
Will Losses in Digital Assets Continue?
Digital assets, which began the week with an uptick in reaction to previous losses, struggled to maintain this momentum throughout the week. Bitcoin, which started Friday, February 13, at around $66,000, pushed above $70,000 on Saturday. However, with risk appetite in global markets remaining subdued, most of these gains were subsequently reversed.
Following volatile price action on February 5 and 6, volatility and volumes remained generally low. Tensions between Iran and the US remained fragile despite negotiations between delegations from both countries. Concerns that artificial intelligence companies may be overvalued also kept investors cautious. Another factor was the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, published on Wednesday. The revelation that some FOMC officials believed interest rate hikes could be considered if inflation remained persistent played a significant role in discouraging market participants from taking on new risks.
A development that could be considered positive for the digital ecosystem was the announcement by CME Group that it would begin 24/7 trading sessions for crypto contracts starting May 29. However, the global equation continued to pose an obstacle to Bitcoin and other major assets gaining meaningful upward momentum, as mentioned above.
Next week, the tone of tensions between Iran and the US is likely to be closely watched in global markets. President Trump’s 10-day deadline and his refusal to rule out military intervention on the Iranian front have also become an important area of influence for investors. We will continue to monitor this agenda as an important topic that could determine the nature of risk appetite and, consequently, steer asset prices. Although Donald Trump’s stance is difficult to predict, his statements will be closely monitored.
On the macro side, we can say that next week will be quite calm in terms of data flow. Finally, the US weekly jobless claims, which delivered a positive surprise, could be influential amid this slow calendar pace. In addition, following the economic growth rate (GDP) and the PCE, an important inflation indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be announced on Friday with a delay, will be under our lens.
As we have mentioned in our previous reports, the lack of catalysts continues to prevent digital assets from gaining momentum in the short term. CME Group’s decision to offer continuous trading and the increased likelihood of the Clarity Act being approved are not yet playing the role of creating this “strong catalyst” effect. Therefore, in this investment horizon, we can say that we expect the period of stabilization to continue, with a more subdued atmosphere. That said, we maintain our bullish outlook for the medium and long term. Compared to a year ago, we anticipate that the fundamental benefits of digital assets’ position within the traditional financial system will be reflected in prices, but we also foresee a challenging path for cryptocurrencies until the second half of the year.
Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators and Developments
February 24 – U.S. CB Consumer Confidence; It is the result of a survey of approximately 3,000 individual consumers asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions . It measures financial confidence as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is published monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month.
February 26 – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims; This shows the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week and is published weekly, usually on the first Thursday after the week ends. Although it is a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed is considered an indicator of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Market impact can vary from week to week, and market participants tend to focus more on this data when they are more sensitive to recent developments or when macro indicators related to the labor market are at extreme levels.
February 27 – U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI),The PPI, which shows changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, is published monthly, approximately 13 days after the end of the month. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. When producers demand higher prices for goods and services, higher costs are generally passed on to consumers. The Core PPI measures changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. PPI data below forecasts are generally expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
February 27 – U.S. Bitcoin Futures Expiration; Options expiring on futures contracts with the same expiration date typically expire on the last Friday of the current month on the CME. Trading volume and price volatility may increase in the days leading up to the expiration of these contracts.
Important Economic Calender Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are provided by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for any changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
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