MARKET COMPASS
New Record from BTC
- In global markets, the decline in tensions over trade wars and growing optimism that regulations for digital assets will soon be approved in the US helped Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, to set a new record. Altcoins also followed a parallel rise.
- Democrats in the US Congress have stopped opposing a bill aimed at regulating stablecoins, paving the way for the bill to be passed by the end of the week. This is perceived as a factor that could accelerate further adoption of digital assets.
- In addition, institutional investor interest, which remained buoyant during the recent market turbulence caused by tariffs, has been instrumental in accelerating cash flows into the sector.
- In traditional markets, on the other hand, concerns over the “fiscal deficit”, which started with the credit rating agency Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, continue to weigh on asset prices. Concerns over the ability of the world’s largest economy to service its debt led to a continued rise in long-term bond yields.
- Developments regarding President Trump’s tax cut bill, which is expected to lead to further deterioration in the US fiscal situation, are closely monitored in this context. It is rumored that the bill could be voted on as soon as today.
- Although Wall Street index futures pointed to a slightly positive opening today after yesterday’s negative closures, concerns about the “US fiscal situation” are weighing on European stock markets.
- Major digital assets, which managed to stay away from the “risk off” mode in traditional markets with regulatory expectations and institutional concerns, will follow the US macro data flow, which may be important for global markets later in the day. Although we are concerned about short-term rallies, we see that the recent momentum has created a basis for pricing in line with our expectations for the medium and long term.
- We believe that there is a risk that the gains recorded will be quickly given back if the news flows related to regulations are delayed and the global climate continues the last negative picture. Therefore, we believe that spot positioning for the long term is correct, but leveraged long term positioning is now risky.
Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released on a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the latest developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Bitcoin Pizza Day Celebration | — | — |
| — | Metars Genesis (MRS) 10MM Token Unlock | — | — |
| — | Official Trump (TRUMP) Announcement | — | — |
| — | Chainlink (LINK) Lab | — | — |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 229K |
| 13:45 | US Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) | 49.9 | 50.2 |
| 13:45 | US Flash Services PMI (May) | 51.0 | 50.8 |
| 14:00 | US Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 4.15M | 4.02M |
| 18:00 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | — | — |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
