MARKET COMPASS
Liberation Day
- Global markets focused on US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs to be announced today, which he described as “Liberation Day”. Trump is expected to deliver a speech at 20:00 UTC time.
- There is uncertainty about both the size and scope of the new tariffs that will be announced. However, reports indicate that the President is considering a universal 20% tariff. The White House also stated that the tariffs would take effect immediately, but underlined that Trump is open to further negotiations.
- Assets considered to be relatively risky came under renewed pressure ahead of critical announcements, while the classic risk-off behavior of traditional markets was evident. Ounce of gold moved towards record highs, Japan’s currency Yen appreciated during European trading and Brent oil declined.
- After a mixed session yesterday, Wall Street futures contracts point to a cautious and negative opening today. European stock markets are also negative. Bonds appreciated and yields declined as investors increased their positions in safe assets. The yield on the US 10-year treasury bond has seen below 4.18% again after March 30.
- Today’s March ADP private sector employment change is important ahead of the US labor market statistics to be released on Friday, but markets are more focused on the tariffs to be announced. Markets are pricing that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will skip its May meeting and may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June rate cut was around 64% at the time of writing.
- In major digital assets, which started to recover on the last day of March, we observe a picture parallel to global markets.
Eyes on Tariffs
Possible scenarios regarding the new US tariffs continue to be covered in the press with an intense flow of news. Trump’s new foreign policy, which could threaten world trade volume and economic growth, has been the most important factor under the scrutiny of financial markets. There are different approaches, opinions and expectations regarding the tariffs to be announced today.
A universal 20% tariff is said to be on the President’s agenda. However, there are those who argue that a tiered system with different rates or a product-specific approach could be announced. For example, some sensitive sectors could be excluded from the new tariffs. The high level of uncertainty also seems to stem from Trump’s administration strategy, making it even more difficult to make a prediction.
After the President’s choice of words in his speech and the tariff uncertainty that will become clearer, we think that the important dynamic will be how far the door to negotiations on new tariffs will be left open. According to reports, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems to have said that tariffs will be at the highest level and then negotiations can be held to reduce these tariffs. Of course, the geographical distribution of tariffs will also be important. In addition to the far eastern countries with large economies, including China and Japan, rates on the European Union will be under scrutiny.
We believe that the “worst is still to come” in terms of tariffs, but that the issue will gradually reach Trump’s desired dose and that there will be a gradual softening after today. Therefore, we believe that as the tariff agenda becomes less on the agenda in the second quarter of the year, the pressure on digital assets due to this issue will decrease. Nevertheless, we remain open to assessing the latest announcements and developments and updating this view when necessary.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and government, by analysing payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain estimates of employment growth by Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP). It usually gives a hint of employment growth 2 days before the employment data released by the government. Usually, lower-than-expected ADP data has a positive impact on digital assets.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets have already priced in the “best case scenario”, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, has been putting pressure on digital assets for some time. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and if concerns that economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, increase further. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Portal (PORTAL) – Upcoming Announcement | – | – |
| – | Stellar (XLM) – Hackathon Contest Launch | – | – |
| 12:15 | US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) | 118K | 77K |
| 20:00 | President Trump Speaks | – | – |
| 20:30 | FOMC Member Kugler Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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