MARKET COMPASS
Tariffs, trade wars and recession fears
Global markets started the new week with an anxious tone and this process continues. While the group of instruments considered to be relatively risky, including digital assets, remains under pressure, concerns about global economic growth are added to the uncertainties brought by Trump’s stance on tariffs. The view that the US economy is slowing down caused Wall Street to have a bad session yesterday. On the Asian side, sales have stabilized, while US futures have also reacted and are on the positive side. European indices have a similar outlook. However, the belief that Germany will approve a big spending package seems to have diminished a bit and the level of fragility in global markets remains high.
The global ecosystem and the missing catalyst
On the digital assets front, the failure of Donald Trump’s move on the “Strategic Reserve” continues to create a significant lack of catalyst. The President’s strategy of building reserves only with assets from criminal activity seems to have closed the door to new cryptocurrency purchases. In addition to this development, the possibility of a recession in traditional markets has been an important component in the selling pressure with risk aversion behavior.
Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best-case scenario”, combined with the less than perfect news, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep this in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the market and if the concern about slowing economic activity in global markets increases. We emphasize that there is no problem with spot asset accumulation, but caution should be exercised in leveraged long transactions. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs, which may keep volatility high.
Calender
The most important macro data of the week will be the CPI for the US tomorrow. However, before that, today’s labor market data should also be taken into consideration. In an environment where the markets are influenced by concerns about global economic growth and the slowdown in the world’s largest economies, the course and clues to be drawn by macro indicators should be closely monitored.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Shows the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. This JOLTS data is closely monitored as job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is released monthly and approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower-than-expected release is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seedify.fund (SFUND) IAgent IDO Launch | |||
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) Community Discussion Event | |||
| 14:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings | 7.65M | 7.60M |
| 15:10 | US CFTC Commissioner Pham Speaks | ||
| 20:35 | US CFTC Commissioner Mersinger Speaks | ||
| 20:35 | US SEC Commissioner Peirce Speaks |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorised institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based only on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
