MARKET COMPASS
Trump and Tariff Threats…
- Trump signs a decree imposing a 25% tariff on cars not made in the US.
- The implementation will start next week and will cover every country.
- Japanese and European automakers are calling for exemptions and negotiations.
- Trump also said on social media that higher taxes are on the way if the European Union works with Canada.
- The effects of the trade war on economic growth and inflation caused a negative perception in the markets again.
- Losses in value stand out in European stock markets. Wall Street futures show a mixed and horizontal picture after yesterday’s sales. There is a similar outlook in digital assets.
- Although the geopolitical agenda took a back seat due to the accelerating news flow on tariffs, the outcome of the meeting between European leaders and Ukrainian leader Zelensky will be closely monitored.
In global markets, Donald Trump’s steps and statements on tariffs continue to be decisive in pricing behavior. Investors are worried about the damage that trade wars may cause to the global economy and fear that the issue will remain on the agenda for a long time. In the context of this dynamic, which deteriorates risk appetite, there is a lack of demand for instruments that are considered relatively risky, including digital assets.
For the rest of the day, there is no reason for the pessimistic mood to dissipate for now. We do not think that the data from the US will contribute to charting a new course, but figures that are far from expectations may cause an increase in instant volatility. The US economic growth data (GDP) will be the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ last estimate for the last quarter of 2024 and is an indicator that generally does not cause major pricing in the markets. Still, it is worth keeping an eye out for a possible surprise update.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets have already priced in the “best case scenario”, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, has been putting pressure on digital assets for some time. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the market and if concerns about slowing economic activity in global markets increase further. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News / Event | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | JACK (JACK): StableJack IDO on Seedify | — | |
| — | Alchemy Pay (ACH): Community AMA | — | |
| 12:30 | US Final GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 13:00 | US SEC Commissioner Uyeda Speaks | — | |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | 223K |
| 14:00 | US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.9% | -4.6% |
| 20:30 | FOMC Member Barkin | — | |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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