MARKET COMPASS
Tariff Developments and Macro Agenda
- Global markets started the week having learned that credit rating agency Moody’s had downgraded the US credit rating by one notch on Friday. Moody’s cited the increasing burden of financing the Federal government’s budget deficit and debt as the reason for this upgrade, which led to a sell-off in US assets, especially fixed income instruments.
- Wall Street indices still managed to end yesterday’s difficult session on the positive side. European stock markets are up this morning, but Wall Street futures are slightly negative this time.
- Markets continue to search for direction with expectations regarding tariffs, geopolitical risks and the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut route. Trump and Putin described their phone conversation as “productive.” On the crypto assets side, we can say that the US GENIUS bill is the prominent headline.
- The economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, except for the PMI data to be released on Thursday. However, statements from the US Federal Reserve (FED) officials will be closely monitored. The FED is not expected to cut interest rates before September and it is priced in that there will be at most two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year. Indicators of the US economic health and possible announcements will be closely monitored in case these expectations change.
- Major digital assets continue to be affected by shifts in risk appetite in the shadow of global developments, while investors continue to monitor the dose of institutional crypto demand.
- Yesterday, during the week, we stated that we think that the lack of new catalysts may pose a risk of putting pressure on the price of digital assets. We also maintain our view that “In this parallel, we may see horizontal price changes with higher wavelengths”. Therefore, we will not find it surprising to see some retracement after yesterday’s rise. For the medium and long term, we think that there is no need to make a change in our view shared below.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the recent developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illuvium (ILV) Illuvium Beyond Wave 4 | |||
| Lido DAO (LDO) Node Operator Call #28 | |||
| 13:00 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | ||
| 13:00 | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | ||
| 17:00 | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | ||
| 21:00 | FOMC Member Kugler Speaks | ||
| 23:00 | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ||
| 23:00 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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