MARKET COMPASS
Trade War Tensions Fall
- Ahead of the talks between China and the US delegations in Switzerland over the weekend, the trade deal reached between the US and the UK continues to provide a basis for increased risk appetite in global markets.
- Trump’s latest message that tariffs could be softened also supported the positive climate. It is rumored that Trump’s administration is considering a serious tariff reduction in negotiations with China.
- China aside, the US is unlikely to reach a solution with other countries as quickly as it did with the UK. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated that trade deals with South Korea and Japan could take much longer.
- If progress is made in the two-day talks in Switzerland, it is stated that the US could start implementing reductions that could bring tariffs below 60% next week. Nevertheless, it is stated that these talks will be of a preliminary nature and may be a meeting where problems will be put forward rather than finding solutions.
- In global markets, we see the effects of the belief that the worst is over in terms of trade tensions. With the negotiations, the issue is now considered to be in the solution phase. Increased risk appetite has led global stock markets to rise.
- Digital assets are among the instruments feeling the effects of the ecosystem returning to positive sentiment. Furthermore, two US states have passed legislation authorizing the creation of strategic Bitcoin reserves
- Meanwhile, the federal government has confirmed that US banks can “responsibly” trade cryptocurrencies on behalf of their customers and outsource crypto trading and custody services to trusted third parties. These developments reinforce the view that Bitcoin is a maturing asset class.
In the rest of the day, we think we may see relatively horizontal price changes after the recent rises. The US-China talks over the weekend will be of critical importance. The speeches of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at various events may have an impact on prices by giving clues about the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Considering the recent developments, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
Highlights of the Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Movement (MOVE) 50MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| – | Kadena (KDA) Community Dev Vote | – | – |
| – | Blockchain Week Rome 2025 | – | – |
| 10:45 | FOMC Member Kugler Speaks | – | – |
| 12:30 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | – | – |
| 12:30 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | – | – |
| 14:00 | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | – | – |
| 15:30 | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | – | – |
| 15:30 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | – | – |
| 23:45 | FOMC Member Cook Speaks | – | – |
| 23:45 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | – | – |
| 23:45 | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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