Market Compass
Trade Talks Agenda
- As the global markets started the second half of the year, the agenda continues to be shaped by trade talks and the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
- Ahead of the July 9th deadline for reciprocal tariffs, the European Union is reportedly warming up to the 10% tariffs, while Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Japan.
- Today, the attention will be on the important names that manage the monetary policy of major economies, and the speech of one of them, FED chairman Powell, will be closely monitored.
- European stock markets, which started the session with a rise, then gave back their gains, reflecting the cautious attitude of the markets. We are also watching a pressured course on the major digital assets front. We think that losses may be limited in the rest of the day, but Powell’s speech and US macro indicators will be the determining dynamics.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
FED Chair Powell’s Speech
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently gave speeches both after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and before the relevant committees of the Senate and the House of Representatives. We cannot state that there was a significant change in the Chairman’s stance. Powell, who wants to see more data in order to monitor the effects of the trade wars that started in the Trump era, continues to take refuge in the confidence of staying in a wait-and-see mode. He will also want to take into account the impact of rising tensions in the Middle East on commodity prices.
Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel titled “Policy Panel” at the European Central Bank’s ECB Central Banking Forum in Sintra. We do not think that the Chairman will take a different stance from his recent statements. However, volatility in the markets may increase if he comments on both tariffs and the timing of the next interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect three rate cuts of 25 bps each (actually 60 bps in total) from the Fed until the end of the year (at the time of writing). Statements that may reshape this outlook may have a directional impact on asset prices. Statements that may strengthen expectations for further rate cuts may have a positive impact on digital assets, while assessments that may signal fewer rate cuts may put pressure.
Other Macro Indicators to be released today
ISM Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the first business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Shows the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. This JOLTS data is closely monitored as job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is released monthly and approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower-than-expected release is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
Highlight of the Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Day | Sui (SUI) 44MM Token Unlock | ||
| All Day | Sonic (S) Airdrop Phase | ||
| 13:30 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | ||
| 14:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 14:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings (May) | 7.32M | 7.39M |
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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