Market Compass
Are Trump’s Tariffs Illegal?
- Tensions rose again in the trade war agenda. After Trump accused China of failing to abide by the terms of a recent agreement, China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday rejected the allegation that China had violated the deal reached in Geneva last month.
- Risk appetite in the markets is seen to be low after these recent developments, which reinforced expectations that a potential meeting between Trump and the Chinese President has been blocked. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett had announced that he expected a Trump-Xi meeting this week.
- President Trump’s announcement of his plan to double the tariffs on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50% drew the EU’s reaction. The continent’s stock markets are on a downward trend. Wall Street futures also point to a lower opening.
- Ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech, FED member Waller said that an interest rate cut is possible in the coming periods, noting the effects of tariffs and the uncertainty environment.
- We foresee a downward trend for major digital assets in the short term. We maintain our upside view for the medium and long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
ISM Manufacturing PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the first business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
FED Chair Powell’s Speech
On the first trading day of the week for traditional markets, the markets will focus on the statements of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Chairman will deliver a keynote speech at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors International Finance Department’s 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington DC.
We do not expect Powell, who will speak in the shadow of the recent rumors of his resignation, to give a clear clue about the timing of the Fed’s next interest rate change. Nevertheless, Powell’s messages will be important and may determine the direction of asset prices ahead of the May labor market statistics to be released on June 6. For now, the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before September. Any assessment that may change this expectation should be closely monitored. We do not foresee any change in Powell’s stance after his meeting with Donald Trump and expect him to maintain his data-driven and patient stance.
Nevertheless, it should be underlined that if Powell gives a message that the timing of the interest rate cut could be perceived to be closer than September, this may have a positive reflection on the value of digital assets, and in the opposite case, it may have a negative reflection. We can say that we see the FED Chairman’s speech as a more neutral development this time before the critical data.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
Highlights of The Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | Event | Exp. | Prev. |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock | — | — |
| — | Hedera (HBAR) SDK Update | — | — |
| — | Saga (SAGA) Decentralized AI | — | — |
| 13:45 | US Final Mfg. PMI (May) | 52.3 | 52.3 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Mfg. PMI (May) | 49.3 | 48.7 |
| 14:15 | FOMC Logan Speaks | — | — |
| 16:45 | FOMC Goolsbee Speaks | — | — |
| 17:00 | FED Chair Powell Speaks | — | — |
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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