Market Compass
US-China Trade Negotiations
- Ahead of today’s critical inflation data from the US, global markets monitored developments in the trade talks. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not expected to make a significant change in the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course, but these figures will be closely monitored in case of a possible surprise data set.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before September.
- There are reports of positive progress in the talks between the US and Chinese delegations in London. On the other hand, both Trump’s tax bill and the ongoing legal process in the US on tariffs are preventing a euphoric mood for the markets. There is a horizontal, mixed picture in traditional markets.
- The US Treasury’s 30-year bond auction tomorrow stands out as an important topic to be closely monitored ahead of today’s CPI data.
- We foresee a climate where major digital assets may be pushed for further upside during the day. We maintain our bullish view for the medium to long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
US Consumer Price Index: CPI
One of the important macro indicators that may provide information on the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut will be May inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) change. In the current difficult conjuncture, CPI data, which may give a sign of the course, will be closely monitored as it may have an impact on pricing behavior.
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.3% in April 2025 from 2.4% in March, the lowest level since February 2021 and below forecasts of 2.4%. Compared to the previous month, CPI rose by 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% decline in March but below forecasts of 0.3%. Housing costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase across all items.
Source: Bloomberg
As can be seen in the chart above, core services continue to have the largest share in the overall price level. Our expectation is for a monthly increase of 0.14%. Nevertheless, the market will react according to the consensus expectation.
A lower-than-expected CPI reading could mean that the FED will be in a better position to cut interest rates, which could have a positive impact on digital assets. A figure that exceeds forecasts, on the other hand, has the potential to exert pressure by reinforcing expectations that the FED will not rush into another rate cut.
Highlights of the Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time (UTC) | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Fintech Week 2025 – Istanbul, Turkey | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | US Core CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 12:30 | US CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | US CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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