Market Compass
US Data and FED Expectations
We left behind a period in which digital assets were under pressure for most of the week. As data from the US pointed to a slowdown in the US economy, expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) are rising. So far, especially on the last business day of the week, we have seen that this has had a boosting effect on risk appetite. Therefore, the first effect was the positive impact of bad US data on digital assets. For now, we can say that the markets do not see the negative data as an economic problem to be worried about.
Next week, global markets will continue to monitor US data. The most critical data of the week will be the inflation data ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may reshape expectations regarding the interest rate cut cycle reinforced by employment data and play a decisive role in the pricing behavior of the coming weeks. Therefore, we will devote a separate section to CPI indicators in this week’s bulletin.
September 11 – US Consumer Price Index: CPI
One of the important macro indicators that may provide information on the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut will be the August inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) change. In the current difficult conjuncture, CPI data, which may give a sign of the course, will be closely monitored as it may have an impact on pricing behavior.
Source: Bloomberg
The annual inflation rate in the US was 2.7% in July 2025, the same level as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations and just below the 0.3% increase in June, the strongest since January. Core inflation excluding food and energy rose to a five-month high of 3.1% from 2.9% in June, above forecasts of 3%. Monthly core CPI rose by 0.3% as expected, following 0.2% in June, the sharpest rise in six months.
A lower-than-expected CPI reading could mean that the Fed will be more likely to cut interest rates, which could have a positive impact on digital assets. A figure that exceeds forecasts has the potential to exert pressure by reinforcing expectations that the FED will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates after September.
Other Key Macro Indicators and Developments
September 10 – Producer Price Index (PPI), PPI, which shows changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, is published monthly about 13 days after the end of each month. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. When producers charge higher prices for goods and services, higher costs are usually passed on to consumers. Core PPI measures changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. PPI data below forecasts is generally expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
September 12 – US Leading UoM Consumer Confidence Index; is a survey conducted by the University of Michigan (UoM) of approximately 420 consumers, asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It has two cycles 14 days apart: Leading and Revised. The “Leading” is usually relatively more influential on prices and is published in the middle of each month. With the FED rate cut on the agenda, if the data comes in below expectations, it could have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies. When the focus is on the health of the economy, better-than-expected data can have a positive impact on digital assets.
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
Information
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
