Darkex Evening Analysis – January 20, 202

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

*Prepared on 1.20.2025 at 14:00 (UTC)

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

Elon Musk and the DOGE Corporation
DOGE, the agency set up to control public spending and which will begin operations today with Donald Trump’s presidential transition, is facing a lawsuit. The reason for the lawsuit is cited as “violations of federal transparency laws”.

Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation
While the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH sales have led to criticism, Vitalik Buterin announced that they are exploring staking options. Stating that they did not staking in the past due to regulatory fears and the risk of taking sides in possible hard forks, Buterin stated that this issue is being re-evaluated.

Thailand’s Crypto Regulatory Space
According to the Thailand Post, under the project announced by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a crypto regulatory sandbox will be launched in Phuket in October. This initiative aims to give a new impetus to the cryptocurrency ecosystem in Thailand.

Italy and Bitcoin Investments
According to Decrypt, an Italian parliamentarian has called on the country’s banking foundations to invest in Bitcoin. Arguing that such investments will provide support to the cryptocurrency sector, the parliamentarian stated that Italy is not expected to create a national Bitcoin reserve in the near term.

Helium and SEC Litigation
The SEC has charged Nova Labs, which developed the Helium network, with selling unregistered securities and misleading investors, The Block reported. The case reveals that the company has been in the spotlight for regulatory violations.

Oshi’s Financing Success
Oshi raised $12.5 million in a funding round led by Polychain Capital and Superscrypt. Investors included leading firms such as Folius Ventures, Sfermion, The Spartan Group, Nomad Capital and CMT Digital. Oshi aims to integrate blockchain technology into the animation industry.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Important Economic Calender Data

INFORMATION

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.

The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations

MARKET COMPASS

All eyes in global markets turned to President Trump’s swearing-in ceremony today. The latest moves of the President, who is preparing to take over the White House, continue to leave a mark in the crypto world. On the other hand, Trump’s messages regarding the policies he will implement, especially on tariffs, will be under scrutiny. Ahead of this critical development, the dollar index eased, while European stock markets oscillated between losses and gains. US stock markets will be closed. While Trump enthusiasm continues in digital assets, as we mentioned in our morning analysis, there are intermediate respites. For the rest of the day, Trump’s words will be decisive in asset prices. For the long term, we do not change our view below for now.

From the short term to the big picture.

The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US and the emergence of BTC as a reserve continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Although it is expected to continue at a slower pace, the expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle (for now) and the volume in ETFs based on crypto assets indicating an increase in institutional investor interest support our upward forecast for the big picture for now. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that we think that the fundamental dynamics continue to support the rise.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

According to Coin Shares’ latest weekly report, digital asset investment products saw inflows of $2.2 billion last week, the highest weekly record for this year. These inflows, supported by Trump’s inauguration euphoria, pushed total assets under management (AuM) to an all-time high of $171 billion.

When we look at the technical outlook with the fund data, BTC, which carried the ATH level above 109,000 during the day, faced selling pressure and retreated to 105,700. The increase in risk appetite, which increased with Trump enthusiasm, enabled the price to recover again. As of now, BTC, which is currently trading at 107,600, continues to maintain the signal given by technical oscillators in the direction of buying, while the momentum indicator is gaining strength again. With the rising wedge pattern and hammer candle seen in its price, the previous ATH level 108,300 level, which was the previous ATH level in the continuation of the rise, will bring an attack towards the ATH level again, while a possible retracement will follow the 106,800 minor support level.

Supports 108,000 -106,800 – 105,000                                                                                                   

Resistances 109,000 – 110,000 – 115,000

ETH/USDT

As Donald Trump’s inauguration draws closer, volatility in the crypto market has increased. Although Ethereum (ETH) displayed a strong technical outlook in the morning hours, it experienced a short-lived retreat by breaking below the 3,292 level. However, it quickly recovered after this move and continued to price above the 3,330 level. As the ceremony time approaches, market volatility can be expected to increase further.

Technical indicators continue to give positive signals regardless of price action. In particular, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator showed no weakness during the decline, suggesting that the market is supported by buyers. In addition, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) analysis shows that the selling pressure is mainly coming from the futures markets, supporting that buyers in the spot market remain strong and therefore the overall market outlook is positive. Moreover, the reaction from the kumo cloud during the decline and the maintenance of tenkan and kijun support levels are among the key technical elements that contribute to Ethereum’s potential to continue its uptrend.

In the following process, the price regaining the 3,382 level is seen as a critical threshold for the upward movement to continue. In case of a sustainability above this level, the market will be more likely to test higher resistance levels. However, a loss of the 3,292 level and the kumo cloud is likely to weaken the market outlook and deepen the downtrend. It is crucial for traders to monitor these key levels and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

Supports 3,292 – 3,131 – 2,992

Resistances 3,382 – 3,452 – 3,565

XRP/USDT

XRP, which quickly rose above the 3.30 level after exceeding the 3.19 resistance during the day, has turned upwards again after retreating to 3.19 support. In the crypto market, where volatility is expected to increase as Trump’s inauguration hours approach, tracking important support and resistance for XRP plays a critical role.

When technical indicators are analyzed, it is observed that there is some weakening in momentum with the recent decline. However, the upward movement of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows that the market is supported by buyers and bullish expectations continue.

As a result, the price is likely to rise up to 3.38. The break of this level may bring rises up to 3.50.  Break of 3.19 support may cause slight pullbacks.

Supports 3.1991 – 2.9851 – 2.7268

Resistances 3.3854 – 3.5039- 3.7057

SOL/USDT

The Solana blockchain experienced a surge in interest in the Melania Trump-themed memecoin, but this unexpected surge overwhelmed the network, causing delays and failed transactions on various platforms, as well as increased transaction fees. As for Onchain, as of the time of writing on January 20, the platform’s DEX trading volume stood at $27.6 billion. This rate had risen to almost $30 billion on Sunday. Thus, the network has become the most active chains in the crypto industry.

The price, which has been fluctuating in the 270.00 – 240.00 band since our analysis in the morning, has started to move sideways and look for direction. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean a bullish continuation in the medium term. At the same time, the asset is above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in positive territory and inflows have reached saturation and started to decrease. This may cause a further pullback. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator has moved from overbought to neutral territory. The removal of this bulge in the RSI may be a bullish harbinger. The 291.00 level stands out as a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 222.61 support level can be triggered. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 247.53 – 237.53 – 222.61

Resistances 259.13 – 275.00 – 291.00

DOGE/USDT

Large investors continue to accumulate DOGE. The circulating supply has decreased, which could potentially have a positive impact on the price. Trump’s pro-crypto stance and Musk’s role in the D.O.G.E. department could further increase the popularity and value of the meme coin in the near future. On the other hand, Elon Musk-led ‘DOGE’ is facing a lawsuit after Trump’s inauguration. The 30-page legal complaint alleges that Musk’s DOGE violated the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) of 1972.

Doge continued its uptrend, testing the 0.42456 level and retreated from there. Doge, which has been moving sideways since our morning analysis, continues to be located between the 50 EMA (Blue Line) and the 200 EMA (Black Line) on the 4-hour timeframe. At the same time, the price is testing the 50 EMA as support at the time of writing. The 50 EMA has also started to hover above the 200 EMA. This could be the beginning of a medium-term uptrend. The rising wedge pattern worked and the price retreated. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in the neutral zone but money inflows and outflows are balanced. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in negative territory again. The 0.42456 level appears to be a very strong resistance point in the rises due to political reasons, macroeconomic data and innovations in the DOGE coin. In case of possible pullbacks due to political, macroeconomic reasons or negativity in the ecosystem, the 0.33668 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.30545

Resistances 0.39406 – 0.42456 – 0.45173

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.