MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 90,754.90 | 1.51% | 59.83% | 1,79 T |
| ETH | 3,168.34 | -1.41% | 12.75% | 381,42 B |
| SOLANA | 214.35 | 0.85% | 3.38% | 101,15 B |
| DOGE | 0.4042 | 2.22% | 1.98% | 59,35 B |
| XRP | 0.7257 | 3.49% | 1.38% | 41,30 B |
| CARDANO | 0.5635 | -0.01% | 0.66% | 19,73 B |
| TRX | 0.1823 | 1.92% | 0.53% | 15,74 B |
| SHIB | 0.00002577 | 0.88% | 0.51% | 15,17 B |
| AVAX | 32.37 | -2.57% | 0.44% | 13,16 B |
| LINK | 13.37 | -3.27% | 0.28% | 8,36 B |
| DOT | 4.966 | -4.00% | 0.25% | 7,52 B |
*Prepared on 11.14.2024 at 13:30 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Producer Inflation Announced in the US!
US Annual Producer Price Index (PPI): Previous: 1.8%, Expected: 2.3%, Announced: 2.4
US Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI): Previous: 0.0%, Expected: 0.2%, Announced: 0.2%
US Applications for Unemployment Benefits: Previous: 221K, Expectation: 224K, Expected: 217K
Republicans, who also dominate the committee overseeing the SEC, will elect a pro-crypto chairman
While the US elections produced near-perfect results for the cryptocurrency markets, it seems that the Trump-led Republicans have gained the upper hand in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This will enable a Republican candidate to head the Financial Services Committee, which is affiliated with the parliament. These names include French Hill, Andy Barr, Bill Huizenga and Frank Lucas, who are also well known in the crypto world.
Cumulative trading volume of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States exceeds $500 billion
The Block reports that the cumulative trading volume of the US Bitcoin spot ETF has surpassed $500 billion since its launch in January 2024, according to The Block. This milestone coincided with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF reaching a new high of $5 billion in single-day trading volume. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of $2.4 billion since the start of the week.
PEPE meme coin continues to rise sharply
The year 2024 was like a dream for PEPE, which was released in April 2023 and entered a long accumulation period after a sharp rise at that time. PEPE, which broke record after record like Bitcoin, rose more than 70% in the last 24 hours.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | US FED Chair Powell Speaks | ||
| 21:10 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
MARKET COMPASS
After yesterday’s consumer inflation, markets focused on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data today and the figures were in line with expectations. Weekly jobless claims remained below expectations. After these data, there was no significant change in the expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in December, while there was only a slight decrease in the expectation of a 25 basis point cut. Later in the day, FED Chairman Powell’s evaluations will be under the spotlight of the markets.
Powell on Stage Again
Throughout the week, we have heard and will continue to hear from many Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials at various events. Among them, Fed Chair Powell’s speech stands out and he will deliver remarks today at 8:00 P.M. (UTC Time). He is speaking on a panel titled “Global Perspectives”. Although we don’t expect him to take a different stance than he did on November 7th, a Fed chairman’s remarks are always important and can have an impact on the markets.
On that day, after the FOMC’s 25 basis point rate cut, Powell, who stood behind the lectern, did not want to address the agenda regarding Trump’s election as the President of the US and what the FED thinks about the fiscal policies of the new era. Underlining that the FED will continue to make data-driven decisions, Powell left the impression that they should be cautious about the course of rate cuts (by slightly increasing the dose).
The President will take the microphone at today’s event and his assessments on inflation and the labor market will be important, following yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. We will be watching carefully how he will interpret the latest data. We think that if the President gives messages that will point to the continuation of interest rate cuts, the rise in digital assets may be supported. However, Powell’s more cautious stance (about interest rate cuts) compared to his previous speeches may reduce the risk appetite, which may be an excuse to see a correction in cryptocurrencies.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump, one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our forecasts. The continuation of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and the inflows into BTC ETFs, indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, Microsoft starting to consider a purchase…), support our upside forecast for the big picture for now.
In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see some respite or pullbacks in digital assets from time to time. At this point, it is worth reiterating that fundamental dynamics remain bullish. While the continued extension of record highs by Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, may encourage buyers to take new, upside positions, we will watch this group struggle with the masses who may want to take profit realizations. Volatility is likely to increase during this struggle.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Following the release of US inflation data, attention turned to another macroeconomic data, the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.3%, which may put pressure on headline inflation. However, claims for unemployment benefits came in below expectations, indicating that the labor market is strong and employment is sustained. In global markets, the focus is shifted to Powell’s remarks, who will be in front of the cameras today.
When we look at the BTC technical outlook in line with the data released, we see that the price is consolidating above the 90,000 level. With the 90,000 level, which previously worked as a support level, working as resistance, persistence above this level could support the upward momentum and take the price to an all-time high of 93,434. In line with Powell’s statements, his reluctance to cut interest rates next month may create selling pressure on BTC price. In case of a possible correction, closures below the 90,000 level will be monitored. While our technical oscillators continue to give trading signals in the overbought zone, it causes it to lose its importance in the rising market.
Supports 85,000 – 83,000 – 80,000
Resistances 90,000 – 93,000 – 95,000
ETH/USDT
It is seen that there is not enough demand in the market for ETH, which has drawn a horizontal outlook after the recent rises. This is especially evident when Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and open interest data are considered. On the technical side, it is seen that the oscillators have turned negative. Negative structures have formed on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and momentum. At the same time, as a result of the Ichimoku indicator mentioned in the morning analysis generating a sell signal, declines may come down to the areas indicated by the blue rectangle on the chart. It can be said that this area, which should be paid attention to, can cause deep price declines if lost. However, it seems very likely that ETH will react from this area, which is seen as a strong support zone in the short term, with positive divergences that may occur on the RSI. If the price breaks through the 3,256 tenkan resistance, it could disrupt the negative scenario and bring rapid rises to 3,353 levels.
Supports 3,045 – 2,925 – 2,819
Resistances 3,256 – 3,353 – 3,534
XRP/USDT
XRP gained the 0.6937 level during the day and rose to 0.7430 resistance again. It is clearly seen that it is in the decision-making zone for XRP, which was rejected again from here. Exceeding the 0.7430 resistance may bring upward hard candles. However, the return from this region and the loss of the 0.6937 level may cause it to fall back to the region between 0.6655 and 0.6433. On the other hand, negative divergences on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that the bearish scenario is more likely to materialize.
Supports 0.6655 – 0.6433 – 0.6049
Resistances 0.7430 – 0.8005 – 0.8816
SOL/USDT
October PPI came in line with expectations with 0.2%, showing us that inflation on the producer side is stable. In addition, unemployment claims fell to 217k, the labor market remains strong. In the Sol ecosystem, according to DeFiLlama data, SOL DEX daily trading volume exceeded $5 billion for three consecutive days. The data confirmed that Raydium led the SOL DEX trading volume with about 62.07%. SOL DEX’s trading volume has already reached $25.94 billion in the current week, an increase of 122.88%. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean that the uptrend will continue. However, the gap between the two averages has widened too much to a difference of 12.12%. This may cause pullbacks. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, inflows are positive, but inflows have started to decrease. The price was up by about 9.02% with support from the 50 EMA. The 222.61 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. SOL, which tested here, has lost its momentum and has broken the downward trend that has formed since November 5. If it starts rising again and rises above the 222.61 level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, support levels of 193.78 and 181.75 may be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 209.93 – 200.00 – 193.78
Resistances 222.61 – 233.06 – 237.53
DOGE/USDT
October PPI came in line with expectations with 0.2%, showing us that inflation on the producer side is stable. In addition, unemployment claims fell to 217 thousand, the labor market continues to remain strong. In the ecosystem, as of the time of writing, the memecoin index fell to -16% in the last 24 hours. The Sharpe ratio index showed DOGE as having the highest risk for entry due to its volatility. On the other hand, the crypto community has rekindled excitement for the cryptocurrency with Elon Musk’s recent tweet about Dogecoin. The community celebrates Musk’s presence and continued support after years of fluctuating interest. Musk’s response to Melissa Chen’s tweet about “DOGE” emphasizes the social impact of cryptocurrencies and meme culture. Technically, DOGE has moved sideways since our analysis in the morning. In the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This could mean that the uptrend will continue. However, the gap between the two averages has widened a lot, creating a difference of 52.15%. This could cause pullbacks. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in the overbought zone. This could bring profit sales. Also, there is a discrepancy between the chart and the RSI. This is a bearish signal. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, money inflows look positive. On the other hand, the flag pennant pattern draws attention. This pattern could take DOGE to a new all-time high. The 0.42456 level appears to be a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE, which tested here, maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the support levels of 0.33668 and 0.28164 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164
Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
