MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 97,713.35 | 0.27% | 55.81% | 1,93 T |
| ETH | 3,675.29 | -1.77% | 12.78% | 442,90 B |
| XRP | 2.330 | 5.04% | 3.84% | 133,19 B |
| SOLANA | 220.01 | 0.75% | 3.03% | 104,93 B |
| DOGE | 0.3924 | -4.68% | 1.67% | 57,83 B |
| CARDANO | 1.0115 | -0.25% | 1.02% | 35,52 B |
| TRX | 0.2719 | 3.53% | 0.68% | 23,46 B |
| AVAX | 44.37 | -2.65% | 0.52% | 18,17 B |
| SHIB | 0.00002702 | 0.20% | 0.46% | 15,92 B |
| LINK | 22.30 | -3.88% | 0.40% | 13,98 B |
| DOT | 8.359 | -3.04% | 0.37% | 12,77 B |
*Prepared on 12.10.2024 at 14:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Trump: Accelerated Approval for Bitcoin Target and Large Investors
Donald Trump allegedly stated that he thought Bitcoin could exceed $150,000 during his presidency. According to Axios, Trump is very optimistic about this issue, considering cryptocurrencies as “another stock market”. Trump also announced that companies investing $1 billion or more in the US will benefit from accelerated approval and permitting processes. It was stated that this strategy aims to attract more investment to America.
Eric Trump: Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million
Speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Abu Dhabi, Eric Trump said that people’s crypto awareness will increase after Bitcoin reaches $1 million. He also added that he was proud of his father’s title of “Crypto President”.
El Salvador and Argentina Sign Crypto Cooperation Agreement
El Salvador, under the leadership of Juan Carlos Reyes, President of the National Digital Assets Commission, reached a cooperation agreement with Argentine regulators to develop the crypto sector.
Italy to Withdraw Crypto Capital Gains Tax
Italy is withdrawing its plan for a tax hike on crypto gains amid controversy among economy ministers and industry criticism.
Microsoft Shareholders Reject Bitcoin Investment
Microsoft shareholders voted against a proposal to invest 1% of the company’s total assets in Bitcoin. Although MicroStrategy President Michael Saylor tried to convince the shareholders, the proposal was rejected.
Goldman Sachs CEO: Crypto Trading Needs Regulation
David Solomon said that changes in regulations are needed for Goldman Sachs to get involved in crypto trading. Currently, the bank is able to move limited in this market due to regulatory restrictions.
Ripple Receives Final Approval from NYDFS for Stablecoin RLUSD
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on the X platform that the company has received final approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) for its RLUSD stablecoin.
MARA Holdings Buys Another 11,774 BTC
MARA Holdings bought approximately $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total reserves to 40,435 BTC. This purchase yielded a 47.6% annualized return on Bitcoin’s spot price.
Riot Platforms Receives Another 705 BTC
Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms has purchased 705 BTC ($68.45 million) in the last three hours. The company reportedly raised funds for these purchases through convertible bonds.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aptos (APT): AIP Community Review | – | – |
| – | io.net: 2.11MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| – | Aptos: 11.31MM Token Unlock | – | – |
| 13:30 | US Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 13:30 | US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 13:30 | US CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 13:30 | US CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.7% | 2.6% |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
MARKET COMPASS
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) new interest rate decision to be announced next week, global markets turned their attention to the US inflation indicators to be released today. Ahead of this, we see that there is no clear direction in Asian stock markets. Central Economic Work Conference started in China. The Politburo had previously signaled that it would adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance and a “more proactive” approach to fiscal stimulus next year. The South Korean stock market is positive after the political volatility of the past few days. European and US index futures are also in the green zone. The dollar index is close to flat. Digital assets caught the necessary news flows to recover after falling to levels seen during the turbulence on Monday. Forecasts for the Bitcoin price from the US and Trump agenda fronts provided a basis for investors to take some risk after recent losses.
Final CPI Data Ahead of the FOMC
The FOMC’s main task is to achieve price stability and keep inflation around the desired level of 2%. In this sense, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is as important as employment data.
Source: Bloomberg
On an annual basis, the increase in the consumer price index, which showed a significant decline until mid-2023, followed a relatively more volatile course after this period. We have seen that the increase in prices continued to decelerate after March this year, albeit at a relatively more reasonable pace. However, the 2.6% increase in October, following the 2.4% increase in September, raised questions about whether the decline in the inflation rate has stopped.
In fact, the markets were already expecting to see a 2.6% reading. Still, this was enough to keep the markets on their toes. Because a potential figure that would indicate that the rise in this rate continued faster than expected in November could cause the FED to pause interest rate cuts.
We think that a higher-than-expected CPI data set may reduce the risk appetite in the markets, thus bringing a decline in digital assets. In the opposite case, there may be grounds for new rises.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the expectations of increased regulation of the crypto ecosystem in the US continued to take place in our equation as a positive variable. Although Powell gave cautious messages in his last speech, the continuation of the FED’s interest rate cut cycle and the volume in BTC ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, Microsoft’s start to evaluate the purchase issue, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options started trading…) support our upward forecast for the big picture for now.
In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish. We continue to evaluate the recent declines in major crypto assets within this framework.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Microsoft, one of the leading companies in the US, refused to invest in Bitcoin, while Goldman Sachs emphasized the importance of regulations on crypto investments. On the other hand, President Donald Trump continues to maintain his optimistic attitude towards crypto markets. While Trump allegedly emphasized that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 during his presidency, it was learned that his son Eric Trump stated at a conference that Bitcoin could reach $1 million.
When we look at the technical outlook with all these developments, BTC, which formed the descending triangle formation we mentioned in the previous analysis, broke down with the Microsoft news and fell to 94,200. Then, with the market dynamics pointing to the bull period, it quickly recovered and reached the 97,600 level again. With the volatile movements, the descending triangle pattern was replaced by a falling trend channel. In BTC, which is currently trading at 97,680 between the 50 and 100-day SMA lines, technical oscillators give a buy signal on hourly charts, while the momentum indicator continues to weaken. In BTC, which is in search of direction, eyes will be on US inflation data before the FED interest rate meeting today.
Supports 95,000 – 92,750 – 90,000
Resistances 97,200 – 99,140 – 100,000
ETH/USDT
Ethereum (ETH), which fell to 3,534 support with the sharp decline in the evening hours yesterday, managed to rise above 3,670 with the support it received from this level. Despite the decline, the positive ETH ETF series that has been going on for the last 12 days attracts the attention of the market.
Technical indicators also point to a positive outlook on ETH. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed a double bottom in oversold territory, indicating that buyers are gaining strength. Similarly, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator re-entered the positive territory, indicating that the positive momentum on ETH continues.
Looking at the Ichimoku indicator, although ETH lost the kumo cloud level, it regained the tenkan level by holding above 3,670. On the other hand, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data showed a recovery in the spot market, while the futures side continued to be bearish.
In light of this data, if ETH manages to hold above the 3,670 level, rises up to 3,772 can be observed during the day. However, closes below the 3,670 level may cause the price to fall back to the 3,534 level.
Supports 3,670 – 3,534 – 3,426
Resistances 3,772 – 3,893 – 4,093
XRP/USDT
Ripple Labs has reached an important milestone by receiving official approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) for its RLUSD stablecoin. CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed this development on December 10th and announced that they will soon announce their list of cryptocurrency exchanges and strategic partners for RLUSD. This news is considered a major source of momentum for the Ripple ecosystem.
With this positive development, XRP, which quickly recovered from the effects of yesterday’s decline, managed to rise to the 2.4 resistance level. However, with the selling pressure coming from this level, it is observed that XRP still continues its movement within the boundaries of the kumo cloud.
Looking at the technical indicators; the rebound on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) comes with a negative mismatch. This could signal a potential downside pressure on the price. CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), on the other hand, has started to move sideways in positive territory, indicating that market liquidity is neutral or slightly positive.
It can be said that if XRP breaks through the kumo cloud, the uptrend could gain momentum and move towards new resistance levels. However, it should be noted that if the negative mismatch in the RSI works, the price may experience a pullback to 2.15 levels.
The combination of news flow and technical indicators will be decisive for XRP’s near-term direction. Especially critical points such as kumo cloud and RSI mismatch need to be carefully monitored.
Supports 2.1982 – 1. 8758- 1. 6160
SOL/USDT
In a wave of $1.6 billion in liquidations, the asset was one of the most resilient tokens to the market downturn. Data from Coinglass showed that total liquidations for leveraged long positions in Solana reached $57 million on December 10. This marks the highest volume of SOL long liquidations in more than five months.
Since November 22, the downtrending asset has kept pace with the market’s depreciation, causing the price to hit the support level of the channel. Amid high investor activity, where trading volume surged 154% to $9.62 billion in the last 24 hours, increased volatility is likely to support Solana’s next move. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). Although there is an upward momentum from the support level, volume has started to fall again. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is seen that there is an increase in money inflows. This can be shown as an upward signal. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 has accelerated towards the neutral zone. On the other hand, the gap between the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA closed. This could push the asset’s value lower. The 237.53 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the support levels of 189.54 and 181.75 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 209.93 – 200.00 – 189.54
Resistances 222.61 – 237.53 – 247.53
DOGE/USDT
When we look at the chart, the asset, which has been in an uptrend since November 11, has started to move by breaking the trend downwards due to the usual pullback in the market. Since this movement was strong, it triggered the 0.36600 level and received support from both this level and the 200 EMA (Black Line) and started to rise. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). On the other hand, when we look at the RSI 14 indicator, it has accelerated from the overbought zone to the neutral level. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it maintains its neutrality, albeit with a small amount of money inflows. The 0.50954 level appears as a very strong resistance level in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible retracements due to macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.33668 support level is an important support level. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164
Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
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