MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 99,822.32 | -0.73% | 55.07% | 1,98 T |
| ETH | 3,895.12 | -1.01% | 13.08% | 469,81 B |
| XRP | 2.314 | -4.90% | 3.69% | 132,49 B |
| SOLANA | 224.51 | -2.45% | 3.00% | 107,64 B |
| DOGE | 0.4034 | -3.43% | 1.66% | 59,47 B |
| CARDANO | 1.0890 | -6.47% | 1.07% | 38,32 B |
| TRX | 0.2867 | -2.60% | 0.69% | 24,79 B |
| AVAX | 51.74 | 2.56% | 0.59% | 21,20 B |
| LINK | 29.07 | 0.75% | 0.51% | 18,28 B |
| SHIB | 0.0000277 | -5.53% | 0.46% | 16,35 B |
| DOT | 8.870 | -6.01% | 0.38% | 13,58 B |
*Prepared on 12.13.2024 at 07:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Trump’s Cryptocurrency Comment
US President-elect Donald Trump said that “great things” will happen in the crypto space. Trump also plans to reduce corporate tax to 15% for economic growth.
Ukraine, Crypto Legalization Plan
Ukraine plans to legalize cryptocurrencies in early 2025, but does not intend to offer tax incentives. Crypto earnings will be taxed when converting to fiat money.
BTC and ETH Options Expire
Today, $2.1 billion worth of BTC and $640 million worth of ETH options will expire. The maximum pain point for Bitcoin was set at $98,000.
Texas, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill The
Texas House of Representatives has introduced a bill that would require the state to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by accepting taxes and donations in the form of Bitcoin. The bill proposes that the state hold this reserve for at least five years.
French Hill Named Chairman of the US Financial Services Commission
Crypto supporter French Hill has been elected chairman of the US Financial Services Commission. Hill prioritized stablecoin and market structure laws.
Google Unveils Gemini 2.0 AI Model
Google has launched Gemini 2.0, a next-generation AI model that supports multimodal inputs and outputs. The model is capable of processing text, images, audio and video.
Alipay Does Not Support Cryptocurrency Purchases
Alipay has denied claims that it supports cryptocurrency purchases. The company announced in an official statement that such claims are false.
Oddo BHF Develops Euro Stablecoin
French financial company Oddo BHF has started work to develop a euro-backed stablecoin. The token is expected to launch in 2025 after regulatory approval.
BlackRock Rejects Altcoin ETFs for Now
BlackRock announced that it prefers to focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The company stated that there are currently no plans for altcoin ETFs.
AMP Buys $27 Million Worth of Bitcoin
Australian asset manager AMP bought $27 million worth of Bitcoin. The company manages a total of $56 billion in assets.
Grayscale Announces Lido and Optimism Trusts
Grayscale has launched two new trust funds offering investment in the Lido DAO and Optimism ecosystems. This step aims to give investors access to the DeFi ecosystem.
BlackRock: Bitcoin Allocation May Be Limited to 2%
BlackRock stated that it is reasonable to allocate 1-2% of portfolios to Bitcoin. The company believes that Bitcoin’s low correlation can reduce overall investment risk.
UK to Require Companies to Disclose Crypto Risk The
Bank of England has demanded that companies disclose their crypto risks by March 2025. The regulator wants crypto policies to be clarified with the Basel Framework.
Satoshi Action Fund to Introduce New Bill
Satoshi Action Fund announced that it will introduce a new version of its “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” bill next week. The bill includes strategic regulations regarding Bitcoin reserves.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Axie Infinity (AXS): 815.63K Token Unlock. | – | – |
| – | Maker (MKR): Sky Executive Vote. | – | – |
| – | Livepeer (LPT): Event featuring Co-founder Eric Tang. | – | – |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
MARKET COMPASS
After Wall Street indices fell yesterday, mainly due to the decline in the stocks of technology companies, this morning Asian stock markets are also on a downward trend. Markets want to hear more details from the Chinese government soon on the incentives expected to be implemented next year. European indices are expected to start the day flat.
Among the indicators released for the US yesterday, November producer price index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims were realized above the forecasts. Markets did not see these figures as an obstacle for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting next week, but it was noteworthy that the rate cut course for January and next year would be slower. Accordingly, the rise in Wall Street indices hit the brakes yesterday. Technology stocks, which are sensitive to the interest rate issue, stood out in the declines.
Although we do not see a clear reaction on the digital assets front to this rasp in risk appetite, it seems that the search for new catalysts for further upside will continue. In the absence of this, it would not be surprising to see a horizontal course.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the expectations of increased regulation of the crypto ecosystem in the US continued to take place in our equation as a positive variable. Although Powell gave cautious messages in his last speech, the continuation of the FED’s interest rate cut cycle and the volume in BTC ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options started trading…) support our upward forecast for the big picture for now.
In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that the fundamental dynamics continue to support the rise.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
US Bitcoin spot ETFs continued their 11-day positive inflow trend with net inflows of $598 million on December 12. The BlackRock ETF IBIT had the largest single-day inflow at $432 million, while the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $112.546 billion. Today, 21,000 BTC options worth $2.1 billion will expire with a maximum pain point of $98,000. With the approach of Christmas, investors readjusting their positions and the increase in annual closures stand out as other factors that will add to the market in the coming period.
When we look at the technical outlook with all these developments, BTC, which broke the minor trend channel and came to six-digit levels, seems to be in an effort to hold here. As of yesterday, the price, which tested the 102,500 level, could not hold here and retreated towards the upper line of the falling trend channel we mentioned earlier. In BTC, which is currently trading at 100,000, technical oscillators give a sell signal on the hourly chart, while the weakening momentum indicator draws attention. Reaction from the 50-day SMA line could bring a downside breakout if the price retests this line and the 100-day SMA level of 97,600 comes back on the agenda. In case of consecutive closing candles at six-digit levels, we can expect the upward momentum to regain strength.
Supports 99,140 – 97,200 – 95,000
Resistances 102,450 – 103,500 – 104,000
ETH/USDT
Ethereum has managed to hold above the critical level of 3,893, continuing yesterday’s bullish move and showing a positive outlook in the markets. Staying above this level indicates that buyers are keeping pressure on the market and the uptrend may continue. Technical indicators also support this. According to the Ichimoku indicator, the price staying above the Kumo cloud and the intersection of the Tenkan and Kijun lines indicate a strong buy signal. This technical structure suggests that the price may continue its upward movement.
Buyers continue to dominate the spot market. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric confirms this buying pressure, while the funding rate remains balanced, suggesting that the uptrend is based on a healthy foundation. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending positive at 55, indicating that momentum could be maintained. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator reveals that capital inflows to the market continue, supporting price action.
The 3,893 level stands out as a critical threshold in the short term. If it holds above this level, the price can be expected to move towards 3,903 and then 4,000 levels, which is a psychological resistance. However, if the 3,893 level is broken downwards, there is a risk that the price may retreat to 3,793 levels. Further down, 3,670 and 3,534 levels are seen as strong support points. Although the current technical structure and market conditions provide a favorable backdrop for Ethereum to continue its uptrend, it is important to carefully monitor the movement at critical levels.
Supports 3,893 – 3,793 – 3,670
Resistances 4,093 – 4,299 – 4,440
XRP/USDT
After yesterday’s rally, XRP seems to have hit the 2.47 resistance level and started a retracement with selling pressure. According to the Ichimoku indicator, a short-term downtrend may begin as the price falls below the cloud boundary. Holding at the lower boundary of the cloud is considered as a critical threshold for the price to rebound. The Tenkan (blue) and Kijun (red) lines are trending downwards, indicating continued pressure in the short term. Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dipped below the neutral zone, falling to 45. This indicates that buyers’ momentum is waning. On the other hand, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in positive territory at 0.12, indicating that capital inflows are still continuing.
The cloud level is very important and if it remains below this level, the price can be expected to retreat to 2.27 and 2.17 support levels respectively. Above, 2.47 resistance stands out as the first target to be overcome in the short term. A move above this level could take the price to 2.53 and 2.65 resistances.
Supports 2.2750 – 1.1703- 1.8955
Resistances 2.4710 – 2.5398 – 2.6567
SOL/USDT
Solana recently announced that Definitive, the DeFi protocol on the X platform, has become part of the Solana ecosystem. Definitive is known for its advanced features such as multi-pool routing, gasless clearing and automated TWAP/limit orders. This integration is expected to enhance the capabilities of the Solana network, providing users with more efficient and cost-effective decentralized finance solutions. Sol Strategies, on the other hand, is planning a Nasdaq listing on the Canadian stock exchange following a 2,336% share increase since July.
Solana seems to have lost its bullish momentum again. SOL is in the middle of a wide channel. Volume remains low, which means that neither buyers nor sellers are ready for a sharp move. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). Although there is an upward acceleration from the support level, the volume started to fall again, making the 200 EMA support and the 50 EMA resistance. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is seen that although money inflows are positive, the decline has started. This can be shown as a downward signal. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in the neutral zone. The 237.53 level stands out as a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, support levels 189.54 and 181.75 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 222.61 – 209.93 – 200.00
Resistances 237.53 – 247.53 – 259.13
DOGE/USDT
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has opened an investigation into Elon Musk’s Neuralink, reviving an investigation into security allegations. Musk’s lawyer Alex Spiro announced that the SEC had given a 48-hour ultimatum for a monetary settlement. Musk targeted Gensler by asking Grok AI to draw a picture of the SEC Chairman as a snail in a business suit. On the other hand, he bought 210 million DOGE during the last price correction. This move shows that large investors use correction periods as an opportunity to accumulate. At the same time, DOGE’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio reached 0.69%, moving from negative to positive territory. This ratio is an important measure to understand whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued.
DOGE successfully unwound from overbought levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 on the chart returned to the neutral 50 zone. This suggests that the token has relieved the overbought pressure and paved the way for another potential leg upwards. When we look at the chart, the asset, which has been in an uptrend since November 11, has started to move by breaking the trend downwards due to the usual pullback in the market, but the uptrend seems to have started again. Since this move was strong, it tested the 0.42456 level and hit resistance from both this level and the 50 EMA (Blue Line) and lost some momentum. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). On the other hand, when we look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 indicator, it is deployed at a neutral level. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it maintains its neutrality even though there are a few money outflows. The 0.50954 level stands out as a very strong resistance place in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible retracements due to macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.33668 support level is an important support level. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164
Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
