Darkex Morning Analysis – December 18, 2024

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

US Treasury Department Intervenes in North Korea’s Cryptocurrency Network
The US has shut down a cryptocurrency money laundering network that supported North Korea’s nuclear program. The sanctions targeted the network’s operations in countries such as the United Arab Emirates and China.

Bitcoin Reserve Sounds Rising in the European Union
Member of the European Parliament Sarah Knafo argued that the European Union should invest in Bitcoin to create strategic national Bitcoin reserves and opposed the European Central Bank’s (ECB) plan to develop a digital euro. In her speech, Knafo cited El Salvador’s success with Bitcoin investments and stated that Bitcoin supports individual financial freedom.

Payment Process Begins for Creditors of Bankrupt Crypto Exchange FTX
Users affected by the collapse of crypto exchange FTX will be able to receive distributions through Kraken and BitGo under the bankruptcy plan that will take effect on January 3, 2025. The first distribution is expected to cover 15-20 percent of assets, and this process is considered a rebuilding of trust in the industry.

Quantum Computers Threaten Bitcoin
Scientists predict that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s encryption technology within five years. It was emphasized that a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s cryptographic infrastructure is needed.

Ohio Moves Bitcoin Reserve Bill to the House
Ohio Representative Derek Merrin has introduced a bill to use Bitcoin as a state reserve. Merrin emphasized that Bitcoin is a safe alternative to the depreciation of the dollar.

TRON Chain Breaks Record
TRON reached its historic peak in November 2024 with $240 million in fee revenue and 15 million active users. This growth was attributed to the expansion of TRON’s DeFi and dApp ecosystem.

Stacks Launches sBTC on Its Main Network
Stacks has launched sBTC, which provides support for the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. sBTC increases on-chain security, with more features coming in 2025.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Important Economic Calender Data

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.

The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.

MARKET COMPASS

Preparing for one of the most critical days of the month, global markets are eagerly awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s last interest rate decision of the year. Ahead of this, we witnessed a depreciation session triggered by rising negative expectations for the Brazilian economy, which spread to other emerging market currencies. Ahead of the critical FED announcements, the risk-off mode of investors looking to take some money off the table was also felt on the digital assets front. By the way, Asian indices are generally on the positive side amid expectations for the incentives expected to be announced by China in the coming periods. European and US futures contracts are also pointing to positive openings.

In the rest of the day, the decisions of the FED, which will guide prices and determine short-term pricing behavior, will be closely monitored. Click here to review our evaluations on this subject.

From the short term to the big picture.

The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the expectations of increased regulation of the crypto ecosystem in the US continued to take place in our equation as a positive variable. Although Powell gave cautious messages in his last speech, the continuation of the FED’s interest rate cut cycle and the volume in BTC ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options started trading…) support our upward forecast for the big picture for now.

In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $494 million as of yesterday, while uninterrupted fund inflows continued for 14 consecutive days. The BlackRock ETF IBIT attracted attention with a net inflow of $ 741 million in a single day. The intense interest of institutional investors continues to contribute to Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $108,350.

When we look at the technical outlook with the latest developments, as we stated in the previous analysis, we stated that the price could enter the correction after the new ATH level attempt. As a matter of fact, the price, which tested the 108,350 level as of yesterday, turned its direction down. The price, which broke the 104,500 level, which is the lower line in the rising trend channel, fell to 103,250 levels. In BTC, which is currently trading at 103,400, technical oscillators continue to signal in the direction of sales, while the momentum indicator continues to weaken in the positive zone. If the retracement deepens, the 102,900 level appears as a support zone. In case of a possible recovery, we will follow the price to come back into the trend channel. Today, eyes will be on the FED interest rate meeting and a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain. We expect volatility to increase after Powell’s statements that will take place before and after the interest rate decision.

Supports 102,900 – 101,400 – 100,000

Resistances 104,500 – 106,600 – 108,350

ETH/USDT

Ethereum fell sharply yesterday, losing 3,893 as Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) and retreated. This move was further accelerated by the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH sell-off during the day, which was negatively received by the market. Technical analysis indicators also support this pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains negative, falling as low as 40. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a positive divergence despite being in negative territory. This may indicate that buyers have started to enter the market despite the selling pressure. On the Ichimoku indicator, a sell signal is formed as the Tenkan-sen line crosses the Kijun-sen line to the downside. However, it seems that the price managed to hold on to the cloud (Kumo) support. This cloud support, which corresponds to the 3.793 level, stands out as a critical support level. A close below this level may cause the decline to deepen.

Current technical indicators point to the possibility that the price may rise by taking a reaction in these regions. However, for this scenario to materialize, a significant increase in the volume of buyers must be seen. In particular, maintaining the 3,793 level may support the expectation of a recovery in the short term.

Supports 3,793 – 3,670 – 3,510

Resistances 3,893 – 4,093 – 4,299

XRP/USDT

The news that Ripple’s stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) will be listed on global exchanges as of December 17 triggered a strong rise in XRP. However, with the effect of the decline in Bitcoin, XRP retreated to 2.46 and managed to rise above 2.50 again with the reaction it received from this point.

After the pullback, downward movements were observed in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicators, while momentum seems to have weakened. In this process, the 2.47 level stands out as a critical reversal point. Maintaining this region is very important for the continuation of positive price movements on XRP. Especially as long as it stays above this level, XRP’s recovery potential seems high with the effect of positive news flows. However, it should be kept in mind that if 2.47 support is lost, the decline may deepen and selling pressure may increase. Market dynamics and news flows should be carefully monitored.

Supports 2.4710 – 2.2741- 1.1484

Resistances 2.5398 – 2.6567 – 2.8456

SOL/USDT

Today’s US interest rate decision may cause fluctuations in the market. According to the data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 95.4%.

SOL has turned bearish, keeping pace with the market’s decline. The asset, which is in the middle of a broad downtrend, is moving towards the bottom of the trend as volume declines. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) coincided with the 200 EMA (Black Line). Will this end the bull in this asset? This is a matter of general market direction and how investors and traders will act going forward, but the metrics do not point to a definite direction at the moment. Although there is downward momentum from the resistance level, the asset continues to be priced within the downtrend. When we analyze the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, the increase in money outflows increases selling pressure. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is moving from the neutral zone to the oversold zone. The 237.53 level stands out as a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the support levels of 189.54 and 181.75 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 209.93 – 200.00 – 189.54

Resistances 222.61 – 237.53 – 247.53

DOGE/USDT

Today’s US interest rate decision may cause fluctuations in the market. According to the data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 95.4%.

5.8 billion Dogecoin tokens were transferred in 24 hours. Dogecoin is in the accumulation phase; eyes are on the possible upward movement. Will this signal the resumption of the bull run? Recent metrics reveal increased on-chain activity, with increased trading volumes as well as the re-emergence of dormant tokens. Long-time Dogecoin holders have seen large increases.

BTC, which has been in a downtrend since December 8, moved horizontally by changing the downtrend due to the usual rises in the market, but could not prevent it from breaking the 0.42456 level downwards. The price is currently testing the 200 EMA (Black Line) as support. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, there are money outflows and suppressing the price. The 0.50954 level stands out as a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible retracements due to macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.33668 support level is an important support level. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164

Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.