MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Asset | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 89,530.20 | +3.46% | 59.36% | 1.77 T |
| ETH | 3,196.59 | +1.84% | 12.89% | 384.96 B |
| SOLANA | 217.42 | +6.56% | 3.44% | 102.62 B |
| DOGE | 0.3885 | +6.43% | 1.93% | 57.53 B |
| XRP | 0.6877 | +5.72% | 1.32% | 39.43 B |
| CARDANO | 0.5726 | +8.92% | 0.68% | 20.15 B |
| TRX | 0.1791 | +2.05% | 0.52% | 15.47 B |
| SHIB | 0.00002581 | +8.16% | 0.51% | 15.30 B |
| AVAX | 33.43 | +5.40% | 0.46% | 13.68 B |
| LINK | 13.47 | +2.07% | 0.28% | 8.44 B |
| DOT | 5.073 | +1.20% | 0.26% | 7.70 B |
*Prepared on 11.14.2024 at 06:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
BTC Dominance Hits Record
Bitcoin dominance reached 61.39%, the highest level since March 2021. Ethereum lost most of the value it gained against Bitcoin after the US election day. Bitcoin’s rising dominance has accelerated on the back of institutional interest and technical improvements. Altcoins are struggling to gain value as BTC Dominance rises.
US Seizes $16 Million from Bankman-Fried
The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is seeking to seize a $16 million Binance account linked to FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried. The account contains crypto assets such as ICP, AVAX, XRP, ADA and SOL. The DOJ alleges that Bankman-Fried paid a $40 million bribe to Chinese authorities in 2021. After the collapse of FTX, the DOJ filed multiple lawsuits aimed at recovering a total of $3 billion in lost assets.
Bloomberg: UK government emphasizes regulation
Bloomberg reported that the British government will unveil a regulatory plan for the cryptocurrency industry this month, according to Bloomberg, aiming to combat the Trump-led United States’ appeal to the sector and trying to reassure companies about its development prospects in the UK.
Tether Treasury prints additional 2 billion USDT
According to Whale Alert, Tether Treasury reported that it printed 2 billion USDT. Among them, 1 billion USDT was minted on the TRON network and 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network.
HashKey Xiao Feng: Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies could push China back into the digital asset market
According to the South China Morning Post, it reported that Xiao Feng, chairman and CEO of HashKey Group, said in an interview: “If the US Congress and the new President Trump clarify the cryptocurrency policy, continue to legalize and promote the development of the industry, this will definitely be a driving force for China to accept (cryptocurrency).”
BlackRock’s BUIDL fund expands to Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, OP and Polygon chains
BlackRock’s US dollar institutional digital liquidity fund (BUIDL) will launch new share categories on multiple blockchains, including Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism’s OP mainnet and Polygon, Securitize announced. The fund was first launched on the Ethereum network in March 2024 and tokenized by Securitize.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oasis (ROSE) Event | Afternoon TEE Party | – | – |
| 13:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 224K | 221K |
| 13:30 | US Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 13:30 | US PPI (MoM) (Oct) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14:00 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | – | – |
| 20:00 | US FED Chair Powell Speaks | – | – |
| 21:10 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
MARKET COMPASS
Global markets, which have been following the US macro indicators and the statements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, will be following a similar agenda today. Following yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be under scrutiny today. In addition, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments will be closely monitored.
Powell on Stage Again
Throughout the week, we have heard and will continue to hear from many Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials at various events. Among them, Fed Chair Powell’s speech stands out and he will deliver remarks today at 8:00 P.M. (UTC Time). He is speaking on a panel titled “Global Perspectives”. Although we don’t expect him to take a different stance than he did on November 7, a Fed chairman’s remarks are always important and can have an impact on the markets.
After the FOMC’s 25 bps rate cut, Powell stepped behind the lectern and refrained from addressing the agenda regarding Trump’s election as the new US President and what the Fed thinks about the fiscal policies of the new era. Underlining that the FED will continue to make data-driven decisions, Powell left the impression that they should be cautious about the course of interest rate cuts (by slightly increasing the dose).
The President will take the microphone at today’s event and his assessments on inflation and the labor market will be important, following yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. We will be watching carefully how he will interpret the latest data. We think that if the President gives messages that will point to the continuation of interest rate cuts, the rise in digital assets may be supported. However, Powell’s more cautious stance (about interest rate cuts) compared to his previous speeches may reduce risk appetite, which may be an excuse for a correction in cryptocurrencies.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump, one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our forecasts. The continuation of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and the inflows into BTC ETFs, indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, Microsoft starting to consider a purchase…), support our upside forecast for the big picture for now.
In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see some respite or pullbacks in digital assets from time to time. At this point, it is worth reiterating that fundamental dynamics remain bullish. While the continued extension of record highs by Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, may encourage buyers to take new, upside positions, we will watch this group struggle with the masses who may be looking for profit realizations. Volatility is likely to increase during this struggle.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
High volatility continues in Bitcoin following the release of US inflation data. This is leading to more aggressive price action in Bitcoin as market dynamics become clearer. As we approach the end of the year, a total of $11.8 billion worth of options that can affect prices will expire in December. Of these options, $7.9 billion are call options and $92 billion are put options. Between $90,000 and $100,000, $4.52 billion worth of call options make up a $4.45 billion spread against only $74 million worth of put options.
When we look at the BTC technical outlook in the light of all this data, it is seen that the price is trying to settle above the 90,000 level. In the previous analysis, we stated that the 90,000 level acts as a psychological resistance and if it is crossed, the upward momentum can be supported. As a matter of fact, with the exceeding of the 90,000 level, BTC broke the ATH record again and reached 93,434. BTC, which has not been able to stay at these levels for now with the sales pressure it has faced, is currently pricing at 89,800. This level, which has appeared as a resistance level several times before, is currently working as a support level. In case of a breakout, it appears as the region between 85,000 and 90,000 levels where the price consolidates, but the lack of frequent price movements makes it difficult to determine support zones.
Supports 85,000 – 83,000 – 80,000
Resistances 90,000 – 93,000 – 95,000
ETH/USDT
ETH continues to lose value against Bitcoin. This resistance level remains critical for ETH, which broke the 3,246 resistance with yesterday’s rise and then quickly fell back below this level. When the Ichimoku indicator is analyzed, the intersection between the tenkan and kijun levels seems to have created a sell signal. The price staying below both levels can be considered as another negative factor. Although Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is at positive valuation, it continues to move downwards. After the decline in the ETH/BTC pair, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) value came out of the oversold zone and the positive divergence on CMF indicates that ETH may perform better than Bitcoin during the day. If the 3,246 level is broken, we can see rises up to 3,353. However, the area indicated as a blue box on the chart is the most important support zone, and the price below this level may cause deeper declines.
Supports 3,045 – 2,925 – 2,819
Resistances 3,246 – 3,353 – 3,534
XRP/USDT
XRP cannot maintain above the 0.6937 level. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also neutral for XRP, which continues to move sideways after yesterday’s rise. With the decline in momentum, a slight horizontal movement can be expected to continue during the day. The first support we face is the 0.6655 level and its breakout may bring declines to the 0.6049 region. Exceeding the 0.6937 level may start an attack to the 0.7430 region again.
Supports 0.6655 – 0.6433 – 0.6049
Resistances 0.7430 – 0.8005 – 0.8816
SOL/USDT
Today, FED chairman Powell’s speech and PPI data from the US can be followed. In the Solana ecosystem, the meme coin launch platform Pumpfun sold another 36,400 SOL tokens worth approximately $6.77 million. On the other hand, on Wednesday morning, Solana’s MEV infrastructure protocol Jito suffered a significant outage, leading to a massive increase in base fees on the Layer 1 blockchain. SOL’s Open Interest data increased aggressively, with trader participation surging to $4.46 billion. This suggests that whales are becoming more active and momentum could be on the upside. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This may mean that the uptrend will continue. However, the gap between the two averages has widened a lot, creating a difference of 12.12%. This may cause pullbacks. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, inflows are positive, but inflows have started to decrease. The price was up by about 9.02% with support from the 50 EMA. The 222.61 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. SOL, which tested here, has lost its momentum and has broken the downward trend that has formed since November 5. If it starts rising again and rises above the 222.61 level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, support levels of 193.78 and 181.75 may be triggered again. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 209.93 – 200.00 – 193.78
Resistances 222.61 – 233.06 – 237.53
DOGE/USDT
Today, FED chairman Powell’s speech and PPI data from the US can be followed. Dogecoin has increased by a massive 159.6% this month. For a rally similar to 2021 levels, memecoin needs to hold the $0.35 support level. IntoTheBlock data indicates a surge in large trades, and this is at its highest point of the year. In the last 24 hours, there were 6.13K large trades, which is the same as a week ago and reflects a notable increase in trading volume. This increase indicates an increase in activity from larger players in the market, which could be institutional investors or other major players. Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This may mean that the rise will continue. However, the gap between the two averages has widened too much, creating a difference of 49.45%. This could cause pullbacks. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in overbought territory. This may bring profit sales. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, money inflows are positive, but inflows have started to decrease again. On the other hand, the flag pennant pattern is noteworthy. This could push DOGE to a new all-time high. The 0.42456 level is a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE, which tested here, maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the support levels of 0.33668 and 0.28164 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164
Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954
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