Darkex Morning Analysis – October 22, 2024

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

*Prepared on 10.22.2024 at 06:00 (UTC)

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

Bitcoin Futures

According to CoinGlass data, the size of open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has now reached exactly $40.5 billion. This marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that it has crossed the $40 billion threshold and is considered a turning point in the market.

Bitcoin Options Traders

Bitcoin options traders are increasingly bullish in the wake of the US election and the Fed’s interest rate decision. Traders are targeting strike prices above $80,000 for options expiring in mid to late November.
Tokenization by a British Company

The investment arm of Legal & General, one of the world’s largest financial services and insurance companies, has begun research into fund tokenization. The company, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets, has previously made positive statements on this issue and described this field as a “revolution”.

Crypto Funds

Crypto funds received a net investment of $2.2 billion last week, their largest inflows since July. As the prospect of Trump’s election victory grows ever stronger, inflows into Ether, Solana and Litecoin funds have not gone unnoticed.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Important Economic Calender Data

INFORMATION

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.

MARKET COMPASS

In the first days of the new week in global markets, the upcoming US presidential election and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course are driving prices. With the latest statements indicating that interest rates may not fall as fast as expected, sales in bond markets attracted attention. The growing belief that former President Trump, known for his proximity to crypto assets, could win the race is effective in keeping the rises on the dollar front. While digital assets are breathing after their recent rises, gains are still largely maintained.

The Fed Governors (Daly, Jeffrey Schmid, Neel Kashkari and Laurie Logan) made statements yesterday, suggesting that a rapid rate cut may not be necessary in light of recent macro indicators. Among the Chairmen, Daly differed slightly with his statements that interest rate cuts should continue. In parallel with this, yields rose with the sales on the bond front. Markets considered taking some money off the table with these shifts in the weight of the dynamics of the equation. On the other hand, according to Polymarket data, the increasing likelihood of Trump’s victory in the presidential race keeps the expectations alive that the dollar will remain strong with the policies to be implemented by the new potential president.

In an environment where geopolitical risks are ignored for the time being, expectations regarding monetary policy changes have an impact on prices, while Trump’s lead in the race supports the demand for digital assets in the long term. In addition to this factor, which is one of the dynamics supporting our long-term bullish expectation, we monitored the impact of the recent statements from FED officials with the price changes we monitored yesterday within the framework of our assessment that there may be intermediate corrections and respites. The rise of digital assets, which last started on October 10, continues with intermediate “rest” movements and we think that this trend will continue as long as there is no difference in the main variables.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

ETH/USDT

Ethereum has fallen to 2,600 levels with negative divergences on Relative Strength Index (RSI), Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Money Flow Index (MFI), but after the reaction, it has come back to the 2,650 band. Looking at the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), it is seen that this decline came from the futures channel. It is also seen that open positions increased again with the reaction. RSI and CMF are about to turn positive again. However, especially considering the fact that CMF is still in the negative area and the weakness in momentum, slightly negative horizontal movements can be expected during the day. Gain of 2,669 level is important for the continuation of the positive trend, while a break of 2,571 level may deepen the decline.

Supports 2,571 – 2,521 – 2,440

Resistances 2,669 – 2,700 – 2,815

LINK/USDT

Although LINK retreated to 11.64, it is trying to exceed 12.04 resistance again with the reaction it received from here. However, this rise has created a negative divergence on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). The weakness in momentum is also noticeable. With this data, it can be said that if 12.04 cannot be passed, a decline may come again. This decline may continue until 11.64 and then 11.36 levels. If the 12.04 level is passed, the 12.25 level can come quickly.

Supports 11.64 – 11.36 – 11.15

Resistances 12.04 – 12.25 – 12.71

SOL/USDT

In the Solana ecosystem, Pump fun sold 40,000 SOLs, totaling over 500,000 SOLs, fueling speculation about the Solana market. At the same time, will the price of Solana, which is preparing to unlock 524,030 tokens, be affected in the short term? On the other hand, according to an AMBCrypto analysis of data from Santiment, whale activity has increased significantly and wallets holding more than 5 million Solana now hold 57% of the supply. In another data, a $13.94 million buy position accumulated at 165.55 was liquidated this morning. We can consider this as a bullish signal. Also, Robinhood initiated transfers for Solana. This seems to increase the growing interest around Solana ETF products. Looking at the chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line) on the 4-hour timeframe. This could mean that the uptrend will continue. The price broke an important resistance level of 163.80 on volume, ensuring the continuation of the uptrend that started on October 10. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator is in the overbought zone. This could bring profit sales. This gives us the meaning that the SOL price may fall. The 181.75 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. If it rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible profit sales, support levels of 163.80 – 161.63 should be followed. If the price comes to these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise.

Supports 163.80 – 161.63 – 155.11

Resistances 167.96 – 171.50 – 178.06

ADA/USDT

Key indicators of ADA’s bullish momentum in the Cardano ecosystem, such as Open Interest and Funding Rate, have seen significant increases, signaling a potential upside price move. At the time of writing, Open Interest has reached $245.62 million. This increase indicates a continuation of the bullish momentum that has historically been associated with upward price trends. Funding Rate was 0.0105%, indicating a buyer’s advantage. Despite all this data, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) 20 indicator remains neutral. This could complicate the upside momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the price is pricing above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. At the same time, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to hover below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This supports that the trend is bearish. At the same time, ADA, which tested the ceiling level of the ascending triangle pattern for the second time, may test the resistance level of 0.3905 if it breaks this level. Continued decline in money flow may signal a potential decline towards the 0.3514 support zone. If this happens, 0.3514 is a strong support level and can be followed as a good place to buy.

Supports 0.3514 – 0.3469 – 0.3393

Resistances 0.3651 – 0.3735 – 0.3809

AVAX/USDT

AVAX, which opened yesterday at 28.97, fell by about 4% during the day and closed the day at 27.75. Today, there is no planned data to be announced especially by the US and expected to affect the market. For this reason, it may be a low-volume day where we may see limited movements. News flows from the Middle East will be important for the market.

AVAX, currently trading at 28.17, is moving within the bullish channel on the 4-hour chart. It is in the middle band of the bullish channel and with a Relative Strength Index value of 51, it can be expected to move a little higher from here and move to the upper band. In such a case, it may test the 28.55 resistance. On the other hand, sales may increase in case of news of increasing tension in the Middle East. In such a case, it may test 27.20 support. As long as it stays above 25.00 support during the day, the desire to rise may continue. With the break of 25.00 support, sales may increase.

Supports 28.00 – 27.20 – 26.54

Resistances 28.55 – 29.37 – 29.87

TRX/USDT

TRX, which started yesterday at 0.1568, rose 1% during the day and closed the day at 0.1584. There is no scheduled data for the market today. The market will be closely following the news flows regarding the tension in the Middle East.
TRX, currently trading at 0.1591, is at the upper band of the bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index value has approached the overbought zone with 60 and can be expected to decline slightly from its current level. In such a case, it may move to the trend midband and test the 0.1575 support. However, if it cannot close the candle under 0.1575 support, it may test 0.1603 resistance with the buying reaction that may occur. As long as TRX stays above 0.1482 support, the desire to rise may continue. If this support is broken downwards, sales can be expected to increase.

Supports 0.1575 – 0.1550 – 0.1532

Resistances 0.1603 – 0.1626 – 0.1640

XRP/USDT

In the 4-hour analysis, XRP fell after selling at the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA200) level in its rise last week. XRP, which was traded in a horizontal band between 0.53 and 0.55 levels with its decline, started the day with a decline in the 4-hour analysis yesterday and then started to rise. Yesterday’s daily close in XRP was realized at 0.5483. XRP, which started the day with a decline, is currently trading at 0.5476. While the crypto market is bullish across the board, XRP continues to move in a horizontal band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is in the neutral zone and XRP may move in a horizontal band. If it starts to rise with positive developments, it may test the 0.5515 resistance level and then the EMA200 level. With the break of these levels on the rise, it may test the resistance levels of 0.5628-0.5723 in the continuation of the rise. On the contrary, in case of negative developments, it may test the EMA20 and EMA50 and 0.5431 support levels in its decline. If these levels are broken on the decline, the decline may deepen and test the 0.5351-0.5231 support levels.
XRP may decline on its rise with possible sales at the EMA200 level and may offer a short trading opportunity. In its decline, purchases that may come at the 0.5431 level may rise and offer a long trading opportunity.

EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)

Supports 0.5431 – 0.5351 – 0.5231

Resistances 0.5515 – 0.5628 – 0.5723

DOGE/USDT

DOGE is moving in line with the uptrend seen across the crypto market, and DOGE, which rose before the close in the 4-hour analysis yesterday, continued to rise today and is currently trading at 0.1483 with an increase of approximately 4.5%. The data currently looks positive for DOGE and it is predicted that the uptrend may continue. The fact that it is located above the exponential moving average (EMA) levels has a positive effect on increasing the purchase volume. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is at the border of the overbought zone, so there may be a correctional decline in its rise. In the 4-hour analysis, we mentioned the flag pattern formed last week and the flag pattern continues. DOGE may test the resistance levels of 0.1510-0.1547-0.1594 with its rise within the uptrend. In the scenario where the rise is replaced by a decline, it may test the support levels of 0.1467-0.1423-0.1384 with its decline.

EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)

Supports 0.1467 – 0.1423 – 0.1384

Resistances 0.1510 – 0.1547 – 0.1594

DOT/USDT

When we examine the Polkadot (DOT) chart, it seems that the price has maintained above the 4,380 support band. When we examine the Williams %R oscillator, we see that the Williams %R line is rising towards the -20 level. In this context, the price may rise towards the 4.510 resistance level with the reaction from the 4.380 level. On the other hand, with the downward break of the -20 band on the Williams %R oscillator, the price may want to test the 4,380 support level again. If the 4,380 level is lost, the price may retreat to the 4,250 support band.

Supports 4.380 – 4.250 – 4.150

Resistances 4.510 – 4.655 – 4.785

SHIB/USDT

In response to the rise of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in the Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem, marketing leader Lucie announced an aggressive strategy. Lucie stated that it has identified and blocked 20 social media accounts that spread panic and negative information in the community. He suggested that these accounts were created in 2023 and 2024, and therefore could have been created with the intention of spreading FUD. He also emphasized that genuine community members who have long-term investments in SHIB projects are not susceptible to such suspicions.

When we examine the SHIB chart, the price seems to have reacted 2 times from the 0.00001810 band, which is our support level. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) oscillator, we see that the selling pressure is stronger despite the increase in buyer pressure. In this context, the price may retest the 0.00001810 level. On the other hand, if the buying pressure continues to increase, the price may want to break the selling pressure at the 0.00001900 resistance level.

Supports 0.00001810 – 0.00001765 – 0.00001720

Resistances 0.00001900 – 0.00001970 – 0.00002020

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.