Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
While uncertainties continue on the economic front in the US, crypto investments continue to gain momentum. Treasury Secretary Bessant said that the debt ceiling crisis will be resolved by mid-July, while Elon Musk stated that he does not want to be held fully responsible for government policies. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick announced that tariffs will not be lifted. On the other hand, Michael Saylor’s new BTC purchase signal and Metaplanet’s 1,088 Bitcoin investment showed that institutional buying in the markets continued strongly. Today, the statements of Fed Chairman Powell, who is rumored to resign along with Fed members, will be at the center of the market, and the details of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases will be followed.
When we look at the first technical outlook of the week, it is seen that the downtrend structure that BTC started from the ATH point at 111,970 tested the upper trend line from time to time but failed to break this line. BTC, which is expected to react at the 105,000 level, the bottom line of the trend, fell to 103,300 as a result of the selling pressure coming from Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs. Although the price, which tried to recover during the weekend, managed to move above the 105,000 level, it could not provide permanence in this area and consolidated within the 104,000 – 105,000 band. At the time of writing, BTC is back above 105,000 resistance and technical oscillators are giving a buy signal. In case the weakening momentum indicators recover, it is possible that the price could surpass the 106,000 level and continue its minor uptrend. Another factor that supports this scenario is the presence of a short position of around $12 billion above the 110,000 level in the liquidation data. The potential liquidity target in this region makes the upward movement technically favorable. On the other hand, in a possible selling pressure, the 105,000 level stands out as the first support, while below this level, the 103,300 regions will be followed as the next support point.
Supports 105,000 – 104,400 – 103,300
Resistances 106,000 – 107,300 – 109,000
ETH/USDT
ETH continued its downtrend by dipping below the kumo cloud level last Friday. This technical development signaled continued downward pressure in the short-term outlook, while the price retested the $2,533 level by the end of the week. However, as a result of the selling pressure encountered in this region, the price turned down and retreated to around $2,490. This move shows that the resistance zone is still working strongly and buyers are having a hard time breaking through this level.
On the technical indicators side, the first thing that attracted attention was the upward movement in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator. The fact that CMF remained in positive territory suggests that despite the price pullback, liquidity flows, especially in the spot market, continued. This outlook suggests that despite the selling pressure, market participants’ appetite for ETH has not completely disappeared and is an important preliminary signal for possible bullish scenarios. The Ichimoku indicator continues to paint a negative picture for the overall outlook as the price remains below the tenkan, kijun and kumo cloud. This structure suggests that the market is still pricing below short, medium and long-term resistances and that the critical levels for a strong change in direction have not yet been overcome. However, if the price crosses the tenkan level upwards during the day, a short-term recovery signal may be received. This could potentially lead to another test of the $2,533 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, on the other hand, reveals that the momentum has weakened by moving down again after the reaction from the $2,533 level. This weakening in the RSI shows that there is not yet enough buying power for bullish attempts to be permanent.
While technical indicators show a weak picture in the overall outlook, the fact that CMF remains in the positive zone produces a promising signal in the short term. In this context, the upward movement in CMF has the potential to push the price back to the $2.533 level during the day. If this level is clearly exceeded and permanent closes above it, the upward momentum in price movements can be recaptured despite the loss of momentum in the RSI. On the other hand, it should be kept in mind that if the $2,533 level cannot be exceeded once again and the intermediate support of $2,465 is lost, the decline may deepen further and the price is more likely to head towards a lower support zone.
Top of Form
Below the Form
Supports 2,254 – 2,130- 2,029
Resistances 2,533 6 – 2,736 – 3,062
XRP/USDT
After losing its support at the $2.21 level, XRP retreated to the $2.08 level, one of the strongest support zones, as expected. With the support from this region, the price rebounded and started an upward movement and managed to rise above the tenkan level, which is monitored as short-term resistance. This reaction is considered an important technical turn signal, especially in terms of the price’s sensitive response to the support zone.
Technical indicators suggest that the price regained the tenkan level on the Ichimoku indicator, which is a positive short-term signal, but the fact that the price is still pricing below the kumo cloud and hovering between kijun and tenkan levels does not provide a clear directional confirmation. This suggests that the market is still in an indecisive state and more technical confirmation is needed for upside moves to turn into a strong trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, on the other hand, remains in positive territory, indicating that capital flows remain strong and the market is generally supported by buying liquidity. The positive trend of CMF suggests that the demand for XRP in the spot market continues and that there is a ground that may pave the way for upward price movements in the short term. On the other hand, the negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is noteworthy. Such a negative divergence indicates that caution should be exercised, especially in short-term investment decisions.
As a result, the combination of both positive and negative signals among technical indicators shows that the price remains in an unstable and directionless area. At this point, regaining the $2.21 level stands out as a critical threshold in terms of confirming bullish scenarios. Persistence above this level may constitute an important support for the price to continue its upward movement despite the inconsistencies between technical indicators. In the opposite scenario, if the $2.08 support is broken downwards, the possibility of increased selling pressure and a more drastic continuation of the decline may be seriously on the agenda. Therefore, the pricing of the price between these two key levels will be decisive for the direction of the market in the coming period.
Supports 2.0841 – 2.0402 – 1.9276
Resistances 2.2154 – 2. 3928 – 2. 4765
SOL/USDT
Pump.fun sent another 156k SOLs to a centralized exchange, equivalent to two weeks of fees. The probability of approval of the Solana spot ETF rose above 80%.
SOL price continued to decline. The asset continued its retreat, breaking the strong support at $163.80 and the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average. The asset then tested the strong support at $150.67, from where it accelerated to the upside and rallied by around 3.56%. If the bullish momentum continues, the 200 EMA moving average may be triggered again. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to remain above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the uptrend may continue in the medium term. However, the fact that the price is below both moving averages suggests that the market is currently bearish in the short term. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) is at a neutral level; in addition, a decline in daily inflows could push CMF back into negative territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) remained in negative territory. However, it broke the downtrend that started on May 23 to the upside. This could be bullish. The $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point in the event of a bullish outcome on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $150.67 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 150.67 – 144.35 – 138.73
Resistances 163.80 – 171.82 – 181.75
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price continued to depreciate. The asset broke the long-held $0.25025 to $0.21154 band on the downside and started to move below its 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average. As of now, it tested the $0.18566 level and accelerated slightly upwards from there. At the same time, a bearish pennant pattern has formed. This could trigger the $0.16686 level. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) has started to move below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the asset is bearish in the medium term. The fact that the price remains below the two moving averages suggests that the downtrend may continue in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) indicator moved into negative territory. In addition, negative inflows may take CMF deeper into the negative zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) continues to be in negative territory. At the same time, it remained below the downtrend that started on May 23. The $0.19909 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in case of a possible rise in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.16686 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.18566 – 0.17766 – 0.16686
Resistances 0.19909 – 0.21154 – 0.22632
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