Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
The Trump administration’s decision to postpone the 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9th helped ease tensions in global trade, but sent the message that disagreements between the parties continue. Michael Saylor shared a new update on Bitcoin investments on his social media account, pointing to new Bitcoin purchases. As the Bitcoin 2025 Conference opens its doors tomorrow in Las Vegas, US Vice President JD Vance, Trump family members and Michael Saylor will take part in the event. Today, US stock markets are closed and the impact of news flow and institutional purchases on the market will be monitored.
In the first technical outlook of the week, it is seen that BTC could not hold on after the news flow at 111,960, where BTC peaked, and retreated to 106,500. With this decline, it is noteworthy that BTC lost the horizontal band range at 109,000 and the price formed a bowl structure. However, while some of the liquidation cleaning seems to have been completed after this pullback, the continuation of the buying positions at the 105,800 level is quite remarkable. At the time of writing, BTC has settled above 109,000 again, and closes above this level, with the wave trend oscillator giving a buy signal in line with the technical structure, enable a scenario where the price can target the ATH level again. However, in order for this move to continue, momentum indicators need to support the price by gaining an upward momentum. If the price moves back towards the 111,960 level, the possibility of BTC testing new highs with the completion of the bowl pattern will also gain strength. On the other hand, the 109,000 level stands out as a short-term minor support point in a possible pullback, while the 107,300 level will be an important threshold if this level is broken. A decline below this level may invalidate the bowl pattern and deepen the selling pressure.
Supports 109,000 – 107,300 – 105,800
Resistances 110,000 – 111,960 – 115,000
ETH/USDT
ETH experienced a slight pullback over the weekend, dipping below the $2,533 level and finding support from the lower band of the kumo cloud according to the ichimoku indicator. As of Sunday night, the price managed to rise above the $2,533 region again and gained an upward momentum as it gained this level. However, some technical and on-chain indicators are giving mixed signals on how healthy the uptrend is in the current outlook.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data suggest that there was no strong buyer interest in both spot and futures markets. This weak buying volume on the spot side indicates a cautious stance despite the market’s upward movement. This inactivity in CVD is also in line with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator. The fact that CMF continues to move in a horizontal band confirms that there is no meaningful capital inflow to the market yet, which raises questions about the persistence of the upward movement. On the other hand, the funding rate decline observed in futures markets stands out as a remarkable factor. This may indicate that overheated long positions are being cleared and the market is settling on a healthier footing. Likewise, the decline in the long-short ratio as the price moves upwards suggests that the uptrend is being supported by short positions in the market, raising the possibility of a potential short squeeze. This may be considered as a supportive factor for the current price action. Although it is considered a positive technical development that the price has settled above the kumo cloud again according to the Ichimoku indicator, the tenkan level is still below the kijun level, suggesting that this rise does not mean a strong and confirmed trend change. This structure suggests that the price is still moving in an ambiguous zone and a complete transition to an uptrend is yet to take place. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upwards, accompanying the price action. This positive structure in the RSI implies that market momentum is increasing and internal dynamics are starting to form to support the upward movement of the price. This can be interpreted as a bullish development on the technical side.
In terms of the overall assessment, although there is a certain degree of contradiction between the technical indicators, from a price action perspective, it seems likely that the bullish movement will continue if ETH continues to stay above the $2,533 level. In this scenario, the $2,600 area, where the kijun level crossed, should be monitored as an important intermediate resistance point for the continuation of the upward movement. On the other hand, if the $2,533 level is broken again and a permanent pricing occurs below this level, the risk of sharp declines may come to the fore.
Top of Form
Below the Form
Supports 2,533 – 2,254 – 2,029
Resistances 2,799 – 3,062- 3,246
XRP/USDT
XRP fell as low as $2.26 with selling pressure over the weekend. However, as it entered the new week, it managed to reach the $2.34 level again with the purchases in the morning hours. Although this upward movement gives the impression of a short-term recovery, technical indicators raise some questions about how sustainable this rise is.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continued to decline instead of moving in line with the price rally. This suggests that there has not been a strong inflow of capital into the market and that the rise is mostly due to positions opened in the futures market. Since the likelihood of such a rise being permanent is relatively low, it presents a picture that requires caution. The lack of spot market support suggests that the rise is not on a healthy and organic basis. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has managed to settle above the based MA, with a limited rebound from the recent price action. This development suggests that momentum is picking up again, albeit weakly, and buying pressure is gradually returning. As for the Ichimoku indicator, the price is still pricing below the kumo cloud. The fact that the price is positioned between both tenkan and kijun levels suggests that the market is still not clear about the direction and is trading in the uncertainty zone. This structure makes it clear that a strong uptrend is yet to be confirmed.
Overall, the dominant negative structure in technical indicators is still intact. However, as there is a general mood of optimism in the cryptocurrency market, this technical negativity could be largely invalidated if XRP closes above the sand cloud lower band at $2.37 and the horizontal resistance zone around $2.39 during the day. In such a scenario, a new bullish wave could be initiated as market participants’ confidence grows. In the opposite case, that is, if this resistance zone cannot be overcome, the possibility of the price entering a slight downward correction again will be at the forefront due to the current weak technical outlook.
Supports 2.2154 – 2.0841 – 2.0402
Resistances 2.3928 – 2.4765 – 2.5900
SOL/USDT
Kalshi, a US-based prediction market platform, has introduced support for deposits using the Solana (SOL) cryptocurrency. TradFi chose Solana for on-chain asset tokenization. Major banks and R3 partner with Solana to tokenize billions of real-world assets, marking a significant shift in digital finance and blockchain adoption. The Solana Foundation launched the Solana Attestation Service (SAS), a decentralized identity protocol.
The SOL price continued its sideways trend. The asset continues to accumulate in the $163.80 and $181.75 band. The price remained at the upper level of the band, supported by the strong support level at $171.82 and the 50 EMA (Blue Line). If it breaks the $181.75 level to the upside, the uptrend may continue. For closes below the $171.82 level, the $163.80 level can be followed. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to remain above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates that the upward trend may continue in the medium term. Also, the fact that the price is above both moving averages suggests that the market is currently bullish. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) is in positive territory; in addition, large decreases in daily inflows could move CMF into negative territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is in positive territory and broke the downtrend that started on May 23rd to the upside and moved to the middle of the positive zone. This suggests that buying pressure may reappear. The $181.75 level stands out as a strong resistance point in the event of a rally on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $163.80 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 171.82 – 163.80 – 150.67
Resistances 181.75 – 189.54 – 200.00
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price continued its sideways trend. The asset broke the uptrend that started on May 17 to the downside and lost its bullish momentum. It is currently testing the uptrend and the 50 EMA (Blue Line) as resistance. If it breaks here, the $0.25025 level can be followed. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price remains between both moving averages shows us that the asset is in the decision phase in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) indicator is in neutral territory. In addition, a slight positive showing of money inflows may bring CMF to the positive zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) rose to neutral from negative territory. The $0.25025 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the case of possible rises in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.21154 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.22632 – 0.22632- 0.19909
Resistances 0.25025 – 0.28164 – 0.30545
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