TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Recent developments in Bitcoin, which is attracting increasing institutional interest, show that the digital asset is no longer only on corporate balance sheets, but also in public treasuries. New Hampshire broke new ground in the US by adopting the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” law and recognized Bitcoin as a reserve asset at the state level. With this development, BlackRock purchased another 5,613 BTC, bringing its holdings to over 620,000. On the other hand, new bond issuances and purchases by companies such as Metaplanet and KULR Technology show how strong this trend is in the private sector. Today, as you can see in the calendar, the focus of the market will be on Powell’s statements after the Fed rate decision.
Looking at the technical outlook, after the sell signal in the previous analysis, BTC tested the 93,300 level, which is the SMA 100 line, and turned its direction upwards with the purchases from here. Breaking the 95,000 resistance, which we mentioned as the reference level, BTC gained strong momentum by rising to 97,800. However, with the selling pressure it encountered at this level, it is currently trading at 96,500. When technical indicators are analyzed, it is observed that the wave trend oscillator continues its buy signal, while the momentum indicator has moved back into positive territory. Although this technical outlook paints a positive picture in terms of the continuation of the uptrend, we are in a day that should be followed carefully and volatility may increase. When we look at the liquidation data, it is seen that especially with yesterday’s upward movement, selling positions have been largely cleared, while buying positions have accumulated again during the decline. On the spot ETF side, there was a negative close yesterday. While the weak start of the month has been noteworthy recently, the fact that BTC started May by maintaining its gains may be a positive signal in terms of investor sentiment. This suggests that optimism may be maintained for the rest of the month. Today’s Fed meeting is a critical turning point for the medium-term direction. If Powell gives dovish statements on interest rate cuts, BTC can be expected to move back to six-digit levels. However, in the opposite scenario, that is, if a hawkish tone is encountered, the 95,000 level will be followed as support again. Closures below this level may cause the correction to deepen.
Supports 95,000 – 94,000 – 92,800
Resistances 97,000 – 98,000 – 99,100
ETH/USDT
ETH started an upward move yesterday evening, taking strength from the main support at $1,756, in line with technical expectations. This rise continued up to the $1,798 level, which is the lower band of the kumo cloud in the ichimoku indicator in the first place. Although there was a short-term pause at this level, the price managed to advance to the resistance level of $ 1,826 with the continuation of the buying pressure. Although there is a loss of momentum in the short term after reaching this resistance level, the price’s effort to hold in this region indicates that the market is in search of direction.
On the technical indicators side, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator crossed into positive territory for the first time in a long time. This showed that there was a liquidity inflow to the market, albeit short-lived, and that the buy side came into play. However, the fact that CMF could not stay in this zone and moved back to the negative area reveals that selling pressure is still effective and short-term purchases are not strong enough. On the other hand, Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen rapidly since its recent low. The fact that this rise is not supported by any negative divergence creates a positive outlook in terms of momentum and technically supports the upward movement of the price.
In terms of the Ichimoku indicator, the price rising above the kumo cloud and the tenkan level cutting the kijun level upwards can be considered as a technical buy signal. While this intersection indicates that the short-term direction is up, it is predicted that buying pressure may increase if the price continues its movement above the cloud. As a result, ETH price’s persistence above the $1,829 level during the day could be the beginning of a new uptrend towards higher levels. However, pricing below this level and especially the loss of the kumo cloud level again may bring the bearish scenario back to the agenda.
Top of Form
Below the Form
Supports 1,756 – 1,686 – 1,632
Resistances 1,829 – 1,925 – 2,131
XRP/USDT
XRP began testing short-term resistances yesterday evening, breaking through the $2.12 level, and continued its ascent, breaking above the kijun line, an important level on the ichimoku indicator. In the continuation of this movement, the price managed to rise to the level of $2.17. However, in this region, the price turned down again as buyers could not maintain enough strength and selling pressure came into play. With this pullback, XRP is trying to stabilize at the level of $2.13 for the moment, hanging below the kijun level.
On the technical indicators side, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is particularly noteworthy. Although CMF showed a short-term recovery trend with the recent rise, it remained in the negative zone and turned down again, unable to maintain its upward movement. This indicates that capital flows in the market remain weak and liquidity outflows continue. This outlook, which indicates that buyers have not yet taken control of the market and that the rises remain limited, raises questions about the permanence of the rises. Signs of weakness are also observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With the recent pullback, the RSI has fallen below the 50 threshold level. This development suggests that market momentum is weakening and the buying pressure is being replaced by a neutral or sellers’ bias. This trend in the RSI supports the technical mismatches that prices may be pressured to the downside.
In general terms, the weakness in technical indicators and the failure of the price to hold above important levels suggest that a downward movement may continue in the short term. The possibility of XRP falling back to the $2.12 level during the day is on the table. If this level is broken downwards, technically, the possibility of deepening sales may increase and the price may start testing lower support zones.
Supports 2.1204 – 2.0201 – 1.8932
Resistances 2.2154 – 2.3928 – 2.4765
SOL/USDT
SOL Strategies purchased 122,524 Solana tokens at $148.96 each, using a $20 million tranche of a $500 million ATW facility. DeFi Development Corp acquired an additional $11.2 million in Solana, bringing its total holdings to 400,091 SOLs
SOL price was bullish, experiencing a value increase of about 3%. The asset continues to be in the middle levels of the downtrend that started on April 25. After testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line), the price retreated and managed to hold above the strong support at $144.35. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) remained above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the uptrend may continue in the medium term. However, the fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the overall market is in the decision phase. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) remains neutral, but a decline in daily inflows may cause CMF to move into negative territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI14) is at neutral levels. It has also broken the downtrend that started on April 25. This could be a bullish signal. The $150.67 level stands out as a strong resistance point in case of a bullish breakout on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $138.73 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 144.35 – 138.73 – 133.74
Resistances 150.67 – 163.80 – 171.82
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price kept pace with the crypto market and rallied. The asset continues to be priced below the downtrend that started on March 6. The asset, which is currently testing the 200 EMA (Black Line) as resistance, is experiencing a slight pullback from here. If the declines continue, the $0.15680 level, which is a strong support, may be tested. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is below both moving averages indicates that downward momentum is strong in the medium term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) indicator is in negative territory. At the same time, an increase in money outflows may move CMF deeper into the negative zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI14), on the other hand, tested the downtrend that started on May 1 as resistance and broke it and positioned at the neutral level. But selling pressure continues. The $0.17766 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the case of possible rises in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.15680 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.16686 – 0.15680 – 0.14952
Resistances 0.17766 – 0.18566 – 0.19909
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