TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
While markets are cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, Bitcoin is attracting attention by reinforcing its safe-haven status. BTC has outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 index in the last month, showing that investors are turning to alternative stores of value. At today’s meeting, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the GDP contraction, coupled with strong employment data, increases uncertainty about medium-term policy steps. Despite President Trump’s calls for a rate cut, the Fed is likely to maintain its cautious stance. On the other hand, a new chapter in economic relations between the US and China may be opened. The talks that will start this week in Switzerland could be the first constructive step to improve the trade balance between the two countries.
When we look at the technical outlook with all these developments, BTC continues to maintain its strong stance within the uptrend. BTC, which moved the band range to 97,000-98,000 levels before the interest rate meeting, has a dish structure, while the wave trend oscillator maintains its buy signal and momentum indicators also give positive signals. This suggests a healthy ground for the continuation of the uptrend from a technical point of view. The positive trend in US futures and the positive opening of crypto and technology companies reflect the high risk appetite in the market in general. In this context, BTC price is likely to continue its uptrend and retest the six-digit levels. However, the heavy short positions accumulated in the 98,000-99,000 band make this area a strong resistance area. Therefore, selling pressure may be seen at these levels in a possible rise. Although interest rate cut expectations are cautious, Powell’s indirect emphasis on the crypto market in his previous statements attracted attention. A similar rhetoric at today’s meeting could serve as a strong catalyst for BTC and provide the driving force that could take the price to the 100,000 level. In the opposite scenario, that is, in case of a hawkish stance or messages that will create uncertainty in the market, the 95,000 level will again be followed as the main reference support point.
Supports 95,000 – 94,000 – 92,800
Resistances 97,000 – 98,000 – 99,100
ETH/USDT
One of Ethereum’s most important network updates, the Pectra upgrade, has been activated on the mainnet as of today. While this development is considered a critical milestone in terms of network performance and scalability, it has also started to have an impact on market pricing. During the day, Ethereum struggled to hold above the $1,829 level and continues to be priced at these levels. However, we are in a day when not only technical indicators, but also macroeconomic developments will be decisive in determining the direction of short-term price movements. In this context, the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, which will be announced today evening, have the potential to create high volatility not only in traditional financial markets but also in cryptocurrency markets. Especially for high market capitalization assets such as Ethereum, such developments can be extremely critical in determining short-term direction.
On the technical indicators side, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator moved back into positive territory, indicating an acceleration of liquidity inflows into the market and an increase in buyer appetite. This indicates that investors’ confidence in Ethereum has increased and buying activity has intensified. On the other hand, the Ichimoku indicator also gives important signals. The fact that the price is back above the kumo cloud suggests that the current price action is not just a correction, but also the beginning of a new uptrend. This technical structure reveals that the upside potential for investors is gaining strength.
However, despite the positive picture presented by technical indicators, the main focus of the market today will be on the Fed decision and Powell’s statements. If Ethereum holds above the $1,829 level and exceeds the $1,900 level in the short term, confirming this level as a support zone, it may make it possible for the technically expected bullish movement to materialize. However, this scenario will be valid if macro developments are market friendly. In the opposite case, that is, if the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance or Powell’s statements reduce the risk appetite in the markets, the Ethereum price may see downward pressure again. In this context, the $1,798 level, which forms the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, stands out as an important short-term support point. Daily closes below this level may cause the price to retreat back to the $1,756 level.
Supports 1,756 – 1,686 – 1,632
Resistances 1,829 – 1,925 – 2,131
XRP/USDT
Although XRP moved upwards during the day and rose up to the Kijun line, which is an important level in the short term, it retreated towards the $2.13 levels again with the effect of the weaknesses highlighted in the technical evaluations made in the morning. While the current price action confirms the continued weakness in technical indicators, the main developments that will determine the general direction of the markets will be the interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in the evening and the speech of Chairman Jerome Powell. These announcements are highly important not only for traditional markets but also for the pricing of crypto assets. Such macro developments, which can directly affect risk appetite, may cause XRP’s short-term technical outlook to be reshaped according to market psychology.
When technical indicators are analyzed, it is seen that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continues to remain in the negative zone and selling pressure has increased again after the recent short-term rise. This indicates that market players’ demand for XRP is weak and capital flows are negative. In addition, the fact that momentum indicators continue their downward trend to support this outlook stands out as another factor that makes it difficult for short-term recoveries to provide permanence. On the Ichimoku indicator, the price fluctuated between the Tenkan and Kijun levels and is currently heading towards the Tenkan line again. This indicates that XRP has entered a downward correction in the short term and the current technical structure is weak. If this bearish trend continues and a downside break of the $2.12 level materializes, the probability that the technical decline will deepen further and the price will head towards a lower support zone will increase.
On the other hand, if Fed Chairman Powell’s speech is perceived in a “dovish” tone by the markets, it may be possible to experience a positive pricing in the cryptocurrency markets, as in risky assets. In such a scenario, it can be considered as a technically possible target for XRP to turn its direction upwards again with support from current levels and exhibit an increase up to $2.21 levels.
Supports 2.0201 – 1.8932 – 1.6309
Resistances 2.1204 – 2.2154 – 2.3938
SOL/USDT
Solana Name Service launched the SNS token, aligning incentives with .sol domain user needs and future ecosystem growth.
The SOL price moved sideways during the day. The asset continues to be in the middle levels of the downtrend that started on April 25. The price tested the 50 EMA (Blue Line) as resistance and managed to stay above the moving average, making it a support. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to hold above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the bullish trend may continue in the medium term. At the same time, the fact that the price is above both moving averages indicates that the upside potential of the overall market is strong. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) is hovering in positive territory near the neutral level; in addition, an increase in daily inflows could push CMF above the positive zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI14) has risen into positive territory. It also managed to stay above the downtrend that started on April 25. The $150.67 level stands out as a strong resistance point in the event of a rally on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $138.73 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 144.35 – 138.73 – 133.74
Resistances 150.67 – 163.80 – 171.82
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price moved sideways during the day. The asset continues to be priced below the downtrend that started on March 6. It is currently testing the 200 EMA (Black Line) as support and the 50 EMA (Blue Line) as resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to hold above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the asset is in the decision phase in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) indicator is in negative territory. At the same time, an increase in money outflows may move CMF deeper into the negative zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI14), on the other hand, tested the downtrend that started on May 1 as resistance and broke it and positioned at the neutral level. But selling pressure continues. The $0.17766 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the case of possible rises in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.15680 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.16686 – 0.15680 – 0.14952
Resistances 0.17766 – 0.18566 – 0.19909
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