Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
US President Donald Trump’s announcement that new tariffs will be introduced in 2-3 weeks may bring a cautious attitude on the markets again. Trump’s words that “it is not possible to negotiate with each country individually” are considered as a signal of a comprehensive and automatic tariff policy. At the same time, his statements that “a lot of good things will happen in the next month” reflect his inconsistent personality. On the other hand, Fed official Raphael Bostic stated that they anticipate only one interest rate cut during the year. On the crypto front, $2.76 billion worth of BTC options expired today. While Bitcoin maintained its gains in the last analysis of the week, Trump’s possible statements will be followed at the weekend.
Looking at the technical outlook, as we highlighted in this morning’s analysis, BTC tested the 104,000 resistance level but has yet to break through it. Although there is a favorable technical backdrop, the current lack of catalysts and the lack of support from momentum indicators are hindering the upside breakout. BTC continues to hold its gains on the eighth day of consolidation within the horizontal band range. Technical indicators continue to support the uptrend, with the Wave trend oscillator maintaining its buy signal, while the Williams Trailing Stop and Alligator indicators continue to support the uptrend. However, the squeeze momentum indicator has not yet crossed into positive territory. This suggests that the current move is weak in terms of momentum. Hourly closes above 104,000 stand out as the critical threshold for a new rally. If this level is exceeded, selling positions at 106,000, which stand out in liquidation data, can be considered as the first target. On the other hand, the 102,350 level remains important as a minor support point in a possible selling pressure. In case this level is broken down, the 101,400 level will play a critical role both in terms of the formation of the triple bottom pattern and as the last support level in the horizontal band range. If this level is lost, the possibility of deterioration of the consolidation structure and deepening of selling pressure will increase.
Supports 102,350 -101,400 -100,000
Resistances 104,200 – 106,000 – 107,000
ETH/USDT
ETH moved upwards with the strong reaction it received from the $2,533 level yesterday evening and climbed up to $2,650 with gradual increases during the day. However, the $2,650 level created selling pressure on the price due to the fact that it is technically a horizontal resistance zone and profit realizations came into play. As a result of this pressure, ETH retreated a little in the short term and fell to the $2,600 level.
Technical indicators provide a clearer picture of market dynamics at this point. In particular, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains in the positive territory and continues to trend upwards, indicating that there is still a strong inflow of money in the spot market and investors are predominantly buying. This suggests that buyers are still active in the market and raises the possibility that the price could easily rebound from the levels where it found support. On the other hand, the data from the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator reveals that selling pressure is prevailing in the futures market. Despite the inflows observed in the spot market, the dominance of selling in the derivatives markets, where leveraged transactions are effective, suggests that the market has not yet entered a strong uptrend and volatility may continue in the short term. The negative divergence in CVD, especially when liquidity gaps narrow, may cause the selling pressure to deepen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also generates remarkable signals. The downward movement of the RSI along with the price indicates that momentum-based buying is weakening in the market and raises questions about the sustainability of the current uptrend in the short term. This trend of the RSI reveals that buyers are starting to lose strength and the upward movement of the price lacks momentum.
When evaluated in the light of all these technical data, the $2,600 level stands out as a decisive threshold in terms of short-term direction. In case of persistence above this region, ETH may make an attack towards the $2,650 level again. When this level is exceeded, the $2,780 levels may come to the fore as potential resistance points that can be targeted in the short term. However, in case of a stay below the $2,600 level or a downward breakout from this region, the possibility of the price retreating back to the main support line at the $2,533 level will remain on the table with the increase in selling pressure.
Supports 2,533 – 2,254 – 2,029
Resistances 2,799 – 3,062- 3,246
XRP/USDT
Although XRP once again broke the support at the $2.39 level downwards during the day, it gave a limited recovery signal by rising above $2.39 again with the reaction it received from this region. This movement shows that this support is still valued by market participants and buyers are gradually activated at this level. However, the weak recovery reveals that the short-term outlook remains uncertain and the direction is not yet clear.
On the technical indicators, the first thing to notice is the classic sell signal on the ichimoku indicator when the Tenkan level crosses the Kijun level to the downside. This intersection usually means weakening price momentum in the short term and an increased probability of a decline. Also, the fact that the price is currently hovering around the kumo cloud levels suggests that uncertainty and directionlessness prevail. If the price continues to stay within this zone, it may result in increased volatility and weak trend direction due to the nature of movements within the cloud. The risk of a new bearish signal being confirmed in the short term increases, especially if the price persists within the kumo cloud. In this case, the probability of the price retracing towards the lower boundary of the kumo cloud increases and technically, a deepening of the bearish move may be on the agenda. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator also provides important data supporting the price action. As the downward trend in CMF continues, the indicator is close to the zero line. This indicates that money outflows continue in the market, meaning that the sell side is still dominant. A CMF crossover from positive to negative territory is often considered a leading signal of further selling pressure. This suggests that the technical environment for XRP remains risky and upside movements may remain limited.
As a result, whether the price can hold above the $2.39 level in the short term is critical in terms of determining the direction. If persistence is achieved below this level, the possibility that the selling pressure will increase further and the price will retreat to $2.21 levels becomes stronger. The $2.21 level technically stands out as an important support point. A decline to this region may bring a deeper correction process for XRP investors. On the other hand, if the price makes an upward breakout and the $2.47 level is exceeded in volume, the current negative technical outlook may weaken. In this scenario, it becomes possible for the market to enter the recovery process again and the short-term uptrend to continue.
Supports 2.3928 – 2.2154 – 2.0841
Resistances 2.4765 – 2.5900 – 2.8347
SOL/USDT
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SOL price continued its sideways trend during the day. The asset tested the base level of the uptrend, which is a place of strong resistance, and failed to hold there and continued to retreat. The price, which is currently supported by the 50 EMA (Blue Line), managed to hold here and is above the $171.82 level. If the retracements continue, the 200 EMA (Black Line) should be followed. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to hold above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the uptrend may continue in the medium term. Also, the fact that the price is above both moving averages suggests that the overall market has strong upside potential. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) has crossed into positive territory; in addition, an increase in daily inflows may move CMF to the middle of the positive zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is neutral and below the downtrend that started on May 9, indicating that selling pressure is likely. The $181.75 level stands out as a strong point of resistance in the event of a rally on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $163.80 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 171.82 – 163.80 – 150.67
Resistances 181.75 – 189.54 – 200.00
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price moved sideways during the day. The asset continues to be in the downtrend that started on May 11. Testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line), the price accelerated from there and broke the strong resistance at $0.22632 and is set to test the ceiling of the downtrend. This downtrend has also formed a flag formation. If it breaks to the upside, a rise of about 45% could occur. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is above both moving averages suggests that the asset has a bullish bias in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) indicator is in positive territory. In addition, an increase in money inflows may move CMF to the upper level of the positive zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is at a neutral level. The $0.25025 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the case of possible rises in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.21154 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.22632 – 0.21154 – 0.19909
Resistances .25025 – 0.28164 – 0.30545
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