TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Recent statements from US Federal Reserve officials have reshaped market expectations for a rate cut. Vice President Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic all agreed that a rate cut is unlikely in June and July. Officials are taking a more cautious stance due to inflationary pressures and the lack of clarity on the impact of trade tariffs. These statements seem to have lowered expectations for a potential summer bull period for the time being. US futures were mixed for the rest of the day.
Looking at another technical analysis of the day, it is seen that after BTC tested the 106,400 level, it could not maintain this level and protect its gains. BTC, which closed the previous candle at the support level of 105,000, is currently below this level. The price’s inability to hold its second top at 107,000 suggests that upside momentum remains weak and the market continues to lack impetus. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the SMA 50 and SMA 100 moving averages are quite close to each other. While this indicates continued indecision in the short term, on the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is close to crossing the 200-day moving average upwards, indicating a potential “golden cross”. Although this structure strengthens the medium-term bullish expectation, the technical indicators have reached a saturation point, raising the possibility of a correction in the short term. As a matter of fact, the wave trend oscillator generates a sell signal while momentum indicators remain weak. Technically, hourly closes below 105,000 could pull the price towards 104,000, which coincides with the SMA 50, and then towards 102,350 support. In the scenario that the uptrend continues without correction, the liquidation zone at 107,000 could be tested for the third time, which could weaken resistance and bring a move towards the ATH level.
Supports 105,000 – 104,200 – 102,350
Resistances 106,000 – 107,000 – 109,400
ETH/USDT
Following the selling pressure at the $2,570 levels, which is the resistance of the kumo cloud during the day, ETH has fallen back below the $2,533 support level and is currently priced around $2,480. While this pullback has led to a retest of technically important levels, indicator dynamics along with price behavior are generating remarkable signals.
A detailed analysis of the technical indicators reveals that despite the decline, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remained flat, indicating that there has not yet been a clear liquidity outflow from the market. This suggests that despite the selling pressure, there has not been a strong outflow on the spot side, so the selling may remain limited. On the other hand, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data shows that the bearish move was mainly driven by the futures market. This suggests that the decline is mainly fueled by speculative positions and there is no panic mood on the spot investor side yet. Relative Strength Index (RSI), on the other hand, points to a weakening momentum structure in parallel with the bearish move. This suggests that upside reactions may remain limited in the short term and buyers are struggling to gain strength. However, in terms of the ichimoku indicator, the upward movement of the tenkan level and the fact that the price still remains within the kumo cloud suggest that the positive structure in the overall outlook has not completely deteriorated. The fact that the price is moving in the cloud does not yet confirm that the trend has turned down, indicating that the possibility of recovery has not completely disappeared.
As a result, the tenkan level of $2,467 stands out as the critical level to watch in the evening hours. In the event that there are no closures below this level, the possibility of an upward reaction of the price is preserved. However, closes below $2,467 may pave the way for a deterioration in the ichimoku structure and some deepening of the decline with momentum weakness. For this reason, the support level in the continuation of the day is critical for both short-term direction determination and evaluating possible new pricing behaviors.
Supports 2,254 – 2,131 – 2,029
Resistances 2,533 – 2,799 – 3,062
XRP/USDT
XRP continued its decline in line with the weaknesses in technical indicators during the day, retreating to around $2.33. This movement is both in line with expectations and a reflection of the fragility in the current market structure. In particular, the fact that the price continues its downward movement by reacting to the kumo cloud shows that the negative structure is still valid in technical terms and the selling pressure continues.
Analyzing the indicators, it is observed that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has moved into negative territory and maintained its downward trend. This outlook indicates that a significant amount of liquidity continues to flow out of the market, while there is no support for buying on the spot side. This structure of CMF suggests that sellers are dominating the market and buyers have yet to gain strength. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator continues its downward trend, confirming the weakness in momentum. The weak course of the RSI limits the potential for a strong reaction in the short term and suggests that bearish pricing may continue. Along with these indicators, the rejection of the price above the kumo cloud in the ichimoku indicator stands out as an important detail pointing to the continuation of the negative trend in the overall technical outlook.
As a result, in order for XRP’s technical outlook to improve, the price first needs to maintain above the $2.39 level. Unless this level is exceeded, the weakness indicated by the current indicators may continue and the price may continue its downward movement and the possibility of retracing towards lower support zones may gain strength. In particular, the persistence below the $2.33 level should be monitored as a risk factor that could pave the way for deepening sales.
Supports 2.2154 – 2.0841 – 2.0402
Resistances 2.3928 – 2.4765 – 2.5900
SOL/USDT
SOL price experienced a slight decrease. The asset remained within the downtrend that started on May 13. Testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line) as support, the price broke it and continued to retreat, raising the possibility of testing the $163.80 level as support. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to hold above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the bullish trend may continue in the medium term. Also, the fact that the price is between both moving averages indicates that the market is in the decision phase. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) is at a neutral level; in addition, an increase in daily inflows may move CMF to the middle of the positive zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is at neutral levels and has broken above the downtrend that started on May 9 to the upside. This indicates an increase in buying pressure. The $181.75 level stands out as a strong resistance point in case of an uptrend on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $150.67 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 163.80 – 150.67 – 144.35
Resistances 171.82 – 181.75 – 189.54
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price was slightly lower during the day. The asset continued to be inside the descending triangle pattern that started on May 11. The price retreated from the ceiling level of the descending triangle pattern and started to fall below the 50 EMA (Blue Line), showing a downward trend. If this pullback continues, it may test the base level of the triangle. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the asset is in the decision phase in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) indicator is in neutral territory. In addition, a decline in money inflows may move CMF into negative territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) has moved into the negative zone. This indicates an increase in selling pressure. The $0.25025 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the event of a rally in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.19909 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.21154 – 0.19909 – 0.18566
Resistances 0.22632 – 0.25025 – 0.28164
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
