Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
Trump’s call for a complete lifting of the debt ceiling, new Fed regulations approved by the Senate and the Treasury Department’s statements on digital asset markets are shaping the economic agenda. At the same time, with Semler Scientific’s purchase of Bitcoin, there is also activity on the institutional investment front. The interplay between crypto markets and financial regulations is becoming more visible with the decisions made in Washington. Today, Fed members Kugler and Harker as well as US unemployment claims will be followed in the data set.
When we look at the technical outlook with the latest developments, BTC broke the trend bottom line downwards within the rising minor trend structure and pinned the 104,000 level. As we have emphasized in previous analyses, BTC price, as a result of its movements towards liquidity zones, reacted from the 104,000 level and managed to move above the 105,000 level again in a short time, but could not provide permanence in this region. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around 104,500, with the wave trend oscillator maintaining its sell signal and the squeeze momentum indicator starting to weaken. While the price is currently trading in a sideways and slightly bearish direction, liquidity data suggests that buying positions are concentrated above the 103,000 level. This suggests that BTC may rebound in this area if the selling pressure deepens. On the other hand, the lack of catalysts on the fundamental side in upward movements stands out as a factor limiting the price’s willingness to go up. Nevertheless, in a bullish scenario, the 107,000 – 108,000 band will be followed as the first important resistance zone. In technical indicators, Alligator and Supertrend indicators also confirm the minor downward trend within the major uptrend. Therefore, while the price is likely to collect liquidity at 104,000 and below in the short term, both an improvement in the technical structure and a strong fundamental supportive development are needed for an upward breakout to occur.
Supports 104,000 – 103,300 – 102,350
Resistances 105,000 – 106,000 – 107,300
ETH/USDT
After closing above the Kumo cloud, a key component of the Ichimoku indicator, yesterday evening, ETH quickly lost this level, forming a classic bull trap pattern. Although the price briefly broke above the cloud and seemed to create a buying appetite, it returned back to the boundaries of the Kumo cloud without sustained momentum. Although it attempted to break this zone to the upside again, it was met with a strong rejection and continued its downward movement. While this structure shakes the confidence of market participants, it reveals that the price has encountered technical resistance and this level has not yet been permanently exceeded.
Technical indicators are also generating negative signals in support of price movements. The downward acceleration of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator in the negative territory indicates that the money entering the market is decreasing and fund outflows are accelerating, which indicates that selling pressure on the market is increasing. The withdrawal of liquidity from the market limits the potential for the price to move upwards, suggesting that caution should be exercised in buying.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also remains weak and has fallen to the 50 threshold level. This decline in the RSI indicates that the market is approaching the neutral zone and the upside momentum is waning, which could also herald a potential trend reversal.
In the light of this technical data, there is a strong possibility that the Ethereum price will continue its decline during the day and especially in the evening hours, retreating to $2,533. This area can be monitored as short-term support both psychologically and technically. However, if the price rises above the Kumo cloud again and closes in this region for several consecutive hours, this could invalidate the current downtrend and herald a new upward acceleration. Therefore, the key level to watch carefully in the short term is the price action above the Kumo cloud as this area is critical to the direction of the trend.
Top of Form
Below the Form
Supports 2,533 – 2,254 – 2,130
Resistances 2,736 – 3,062- 3,246
XRP/USDT
XRP moved in line with the selling pressure observed in the cryptocurrency market in general yesterday evening, breaking the critically important $2.21 support level downwards. After the loss of this level, the price made several upward attempts to regain the area, but these attempts failed as buyers failed to provide sufficient volume and the price continued its downward movement. The transformation of the support level into resistance indicates that the short-term technical weakness is deepening.
Technical indicators also confirm this bearish trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator’s sharp transition into negative territory indicates that there is a massive outflow of liquidity from the market and that the selling pressure is stronger than that of buyers. Negative divergences, especially on this scale, suggest that confidence in the market is waning and investors are risk averse.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also continues its negative trend and highlights the weakening momentum in price action. This outlook of the RSI suggests that the market’s upside recovery potential is limited at this stage.
In terms of the Ichimoku indicator, the picture is also turning negative. The fact that the price has dipped below both Tenkan and Kijun levels indicates that the trend is downward, while the slope of the Kumo cloud is also negative, supporting the current bearish structure. The fact that the price is positioned inside the cloud indicates that the overall trend has not changed yet, but the pressure continues.
In light of this technical data, if XRP fails to break above the $2.21 level during the day and in the evening, it is likely that the downtrend will continue and the price will fall to the $2.08 support level with the break of the lower band of the Kumo cloud. On the other hand, if the price regains the $2.21 level and makes stable closes above this zone, the current negative outlook may weaken, and a potential uptrend may be paved. Therefore, in the short term, the $2.21 level should be followed as a critical threshold in both technical and psychological terms.
Supports 2.0841 – 2.0402- 1.6309
Resistances 2.2154 – 2.3928 – 2.4765
SOL/USDT
Web3 healthcare firm CUDIS launches Solana-based token to power its decentralized healthcare platform.
SOL price experienced a decline. The asset tested the $163.80 level with the 200 EMA (Black Line) as a strong resistance but failed to break it. The price also tested the base level of the downside pennant pattern as support and continued its retreat by breaking it to the downside. If the retracement continues, the $138.73 level may be triggered.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the bearish trend may continue in the medium term. At the same time, the fact that the price is below both moving averages suggests that the market is currently bearish in the short term. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) crossed into negative territory; in addition, an increase in daily inflows may move CMF back into positive territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) continues to be in negative territory. At the same time, the uptrend that started on May 31 has been broken to the downside. This may lead to a continuation of the pullback. In case of an uptrend on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem, the $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $150.67 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 150.67 – 144.35 – 138.73
Resistances 163.80 – 171.82 – 181.75
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price continued to depreciate. The asset, which tested the base level of the downward pennant pattern as support, continued its decline by breaking it downwards. If the retracement continues , the $0.16686 level may be triggered. If the upward acceleration starts, it may test the base level of the downward pennant pattern as resistance.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the asset is bearish in the medium term. The fact that the price remains below the two moving averages suggests that the downtrend may continue in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) indicator is at a neutral level. In addition, positive money inflows may move CMF into positive territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) continues to be in negative territory. At the same time, it has broken the downward uptrend that started on May 31. This may increase the pullback. The $0.19909 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the event of a rally in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.16686 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.18566 – 0.17766 – 0.16686
Resistances 0.19909 – 0.21154 – 0.22632
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