Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 70,678.0 | +0.40% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,073.37 | -0.72% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | +330.70M | Net Inflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | -21.30M | Net Outflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,043.7 | +0.11% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,932.31 | +1.97% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,668.1 | -0.43% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.062 | -0.32% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 17.76 | -18.42% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.2135 | +0.25% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 67.750 | -1.02% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 5,004.44 | +0.89% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 81.142 | +4.69% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.40 am”
Today’s Key Events
- US SEC Commissioner Uyeda to Speak
- FOMC Members Waller and Bostic to Speak
- Strategy BTC and Bitmine ETH Purchase Details to be Monitored
US Consumer Survey
- The U.S. February University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary Data Showed a Level of 57.3, Exceeding Expectations of 55.0.
- The Index Reached Its Highest Level in the Last Six Months, Partly Due to the Impact of High-Income Households Benefiting from the Stock Market Rally. However, the level remains below that of a year ago, reflecting concerns about the outlook and the risk of rising unemployment.
- While inflation signals were mixed, the 1-year inflation expectation fell to 3.5%, its lowest level since January 2025. However, the 5–10-year inflation expectation rose to 3.4%, increasing for the second consecutive month.
Fed Officials’ Message
Fed Officials Generally Continued to Maintain the View That There Should Be No Rush to Cut Interest Rates.
- Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he saw no urgency for a short-term interest rate cut, noting that the economy was strong and that 2026 growth could be around 2.2%. Jefferson emphasized that inflation remains above 2% but that the impact of tariffs will largely be one-off.
- SF Fed President Daly pointed to downside risks in the labor market, noting that workers are more pessimistic than firms.
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic said clearer signals of interest rate cuts could emerge in April or May.
Trump’s Dow Comment
Trump predicted that the Dow Jones Index could reach 100,000 before the end of his term. Recalling that 50,000 was previously seen as an extraordinary target for the end of his term, Trump said this level was reached three years early. Trump linked the new record highs in the index to his tariff policies, arguing that these policies support economic strength. The statements reignited discussions in the markets about the risk of rhetoric ahead of the election.
Japan Election Results
The ruling coalition led by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in Sunday’s elections. Shortly after the polls closed, the LDP comfortably surpassed the 233-seat threshold needed for a majority. According to the final results, the LDP and its coalition partner won 352 of the 465 seats in the lower house. The LDP won 316 seats, while the Ishin Party won 36 seats. The results signaled that current economic and monetary policies would continue.
US-Iran Talks
The US and Iran completed two rounds of indirect talks in Oman, but no concrete progress was made on key demands. While the parties did not meet directly, messages were conveyed through the Omani Foreign Minister. Iran refused to halt uranium enrichment but stated it was open to continuing negotiations. Trump signed an executive order immediately imposing tariffs on countries trading with Iran but did not specify the rate. Talks are expected to resume next week.
Ukraine War Developments
The US aims to end the Russia-Ukraine war this summer, but no progress has been made on critical issues such as territory and nuclear power plants. President Zelensky said the US could pressure the parties on this timeline and that new talks could begin in about a week. US officials are considering a scenario of a peace agreement in March and snap elections in May. Meanwhile, Russia continued its large-scale missile and drone attacks targeting Ukraine’s power grid. After the attacks, a large part of western Ukraine faced power, heating, and water outages.
Powell Process Debate
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation hearing be held concurrently with the investigation into current chair Jerome Powell. Republican Senator Thom Tillis had previously stated that the Justice Department planned to delay the selection of a new Fed chair until the Powell investigation was complete. Tillis reiterated that, despite supporting Warsh’s nomination, he would block the process as a member of the Senate Banking Committee until the Fed’s independence is clarified. The debate reinforced perceptions of political pressure on the Fed’s institutional independence.
White House Crypto Meeting
Stablecoin returns will be the main agenda item at the cryptocurrency conference to be held at the White House on Tuesday. Although CEOs will not attend the working-level meeting, policy experts from many major banks have been invited for the first time. Participation is expected from institutions such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and PNC Bank. While banks worry that paying interest on stablecoins will accelerate deposit outflows, crypto companies argue that this will stifle competition and innovation. The discussions are progressing in direct connection with the CLARITY Act process.
Bitcoin Quantum Risk
CoinShares stated that Bitcoin’s quantum security risk is manageable at this stage. It was emphasized that the risk is essentially limited to old P2PK addresses, which constitute approximately 8% of the supply. The fact that modern address structures keep public keys hidden until spending further reduces the risk. According to the analysis, the technology required for a practical quantum attack is at least 10 years away, and there is no need for panic in the short term.
Consensus Hong Kong 2026
Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will kick off with a policy and regulation-focused agenda. Hong Kong Chief Executive John KC Lee will open the event, with stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and ETFs among the main topics. Regulators, politicians, and industry representatives will discuss the future of crypto from different perspectives. The event coincides with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins’ busy schedule in Congress.
Bukele Approval Record
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s approval rating has risen to 91.9%. Security policies and a sharp drop in crime rates have garnered strong public support. 62.8% of respondents strongly support Bukele, while strong opposition stands at only 1.8%. Despite Bitcoin being a legal tender, its use among the public remains limited.
Whales Accumulating BTC
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin whales achieved their highest daily accumulation since 2022 on February 6, with 66,940 BTC. Seeing the price drop as an opportunity, large investors withdrew their assets from exchanges and moved them to cold wallets. During the same period, new large investors were also observed entering the market. This trend indicates that supply pressure may decrease in the medium term.
Arthur Hayes Bet
Arthur Hayes claimed that the HYPE token will outperform all “shitcoins” with a market value above $1 billion in the next six months. Responding to structural criticism of Hyperliquid, Hayes challenged this view with a $100,000 charity bet. The bet covers price performance between February 10, 2026, and July 31, 2026. Hayes’ statement has reignited speculative interest in high-risk tokens in the market.
Vitalik’s Emphasis on Stablecoins
Vitalik Buterin stated that algorithmic stablecoins are one of the fundamental building blocks of true DeFi. According to Buterin, high-quality ETH-collateralized algorithmic stablecoins can enhance user security by transferring counterparty risk to market makers. He noted that partially RWA-backed models could also improve the risk profile if they are over-collateralized and well-diversified. Arguing that ETH-collateralized structures should be prioritized, Buterin emphasized the need to transition from dollar-pegged models to broader index-based systems in the long term.
Kalshi App Surge
Kalshi rose to second place on the US Apple App Store’s free apps list, behind ChatGPT. The Super Bowl effect is considered to be a decisive factor in the app’s rise. Trading volume on Polymarket’s “Super Bowl Champion” prediction market exceeded $700 million, with Seattle’s championship odds priced at 75%. The growing interest shows that prediction markets are rapidly gaining traction among mainstream users.
Based Tokenomics Explanation
Based announced that the total supply of its native token, BASED, will be 1 billion. 36% of the supply is allocated to the community, 23.64% to ecosystem rewards, 20.36% to investors, and 20% to the core team. A significant portion of the community share will be distributed through season-based point events and to NFT holders. BASED tokens will be unlocked and claimable in March 2026.
Tron TRX Purchase
Tron Inc. purchased approximately 179,000 TRX, increasing its total reserves to over 680.7 million TRX. The purchases were made at an average price of $0.28. The company plans to continue growing its TRX reserves to increase long-term shareholder value. The move demonstrates continued interest in corporate crypto balance sheets.
