Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 92,741.0 | -0.95% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 3,258.00 | -1.14% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | -243.20M | Net Outflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | +114.70M | Net Inflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,590.8 | -0.22% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,944.83 | +0.62% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,584.6 | +0.25% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.260 | +0.02% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 14.75 | -1.01% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.17274 | +0.27% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 60.396 | -0.78% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,457.68 | -0.82% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 79.819 | -1.55% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.44 am”
Today’s Key Events
- President Trump to Sign Executive Order
- US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (December)
- US ISM Services PMI (December)
- US JOLTS Job Openings (November)
- FOMC Member Bowman to Speak
- Eurozone Inflation Data to be Monitored
Venezuela’s Interim Government Signals Oil-Focused Alignment with the US
Venezuela’s interim government has begun working on demands such as direct oil compensation payments to the US and changes to export routes. The general trend is seen as being in line with US interests, with Washington exerting strong control over the interim administration. This situation increases the possibility of a peaceful transition in the country and could strengthen the appetite of US oil companies to invest in Venezuela in 2026. Trump stated on Truth Social that Venezuela would transfer 30-50 million barrels of oil to the US. It was stated that the oil would be sold at market prices and the revenues would be under US control.
US-Venezuela Oil Talks Could Shift Supply from China to the US
According to Reuters, US and Venezuelan officials are discussing the export of Venezuelan crude oil to US refineries. It is noted that a potential agreement could shift oil supply from China to the US. This step could prevent a steeper decline in PDVSA production. The talks show that Venezuela is forced to choose between opening up to US oil companies or facing tougher US pressure. The process is seen as part of the Trump administration’s strategy to increase influence through energy.
Delcy Rodríguez’s Chances of Remaining in Power at 45%
According to market pricing, Delcy Rodríguez’s chances of remaining in power until the end of 2026 are seen as approximately 45%. Her pro-oil stance and current role as Minister of Petroleum and Hydrocarbons make her prominent in the eyes of the US. Circles close to Trump find Rodríguez more pragmatic than opposition leader Machado in terms of public and private sector coordination. Her ability to work closely with the US oil industry is seen as a significant advantage for investors. This approach could bring short-term stability to Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy.
More Expansionist Foreign Policy Messages from Trump
White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Trump had clearly stated that acquiring Greenland was a national security priority for the US. While it was stated that Trump did not rule out the use of military force, it was reported that Secretary of State Rubio had conveyed that the administration was evaluating the option of purchasing Greenland. These statements somewhat alleviated concerns about short-term military intervention. However, the rhetoric indicates that the Trump administration is shifting toward a more aggressive foreign policy line. These developments are increasing geopolitical tension in the Arctic region.
Warning to Trump from Europe about Greenland
European leaders called on Trump to respect Greenland’s borders and status. A joint statement emphasized that the Arctic region is critical for European and transatlantic security. It was reiterated that Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark and falls under NATO’s collective defense umbrella. Europe wants the US to act in concert with its allies in the region rather than taking unilateral steps. The statements were interpreted as a sign of growing sensitivity within NATO.
Disagreements Deepen at the Fed
- Richmond Fed President Barkin said interest rates are currently in a neutral range and that policy requires fine-tuning. He emphasized that unemployment is starting to rise and inflation risks remain high.
- Fed President Milan argued that policy is clearly restrictive and is suppressing growth. Milan indicated that interest rate cuts of over 100 basis points may be necessary in 2026. The disagreement suggests that the Fed may struggle to find a clear direction in the coming period.
US Supreme Court Approaches Critical Decision on Tariffs
The US Supreme Court may announce its decision on tariffs imposed during the Trump administration this Friday. The court said the decision could be announced starting at 10:00 a.m. Washington time. If the tariffs are found to be illegal, the U.S. government could be forced to refund more than $133.5 billion to importers. This could create a major disruption in trade policy. Markets are closely watching the decision.
China Restricts Dual-Use Product Exports to Japan
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it has banned exports of dual-use products to Japanese military end-users. The new regulation tightens license reviews for medium and heavy rare earth elements. Chemicals, electronics, and aviation equipment are also included. The move could increase tensions in China-Japan relations. The decision has brought geopolitical and supply chain risks back to the forefront.
“Mini NATO”-Like Security Model in Russia-Ukraine Talks
In the Russia-Ukraine talks, Europe and Ukraine reached an agreement on military bases and troop deployment. Although Ukraine’s NATO membership has not been approved, the proposed security guarantees resemble a “mini-NATO” structure. The US has agreed to support the deployment of European forces and the monitoring of the ceasefire. The territorial issue remains the biggest obstacle. The Ukrainian delegation continues to stay in Paris for the talks.
UK and France Commit to Send Troops to Ukraine
The UK and France have signed a letter of intent to send troops to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached. The multinational force is intended to support the restructuring of the Ukrainian army. The deployment of weapons and equipment in the country is planned after the ceasefire. The establishment of military centers for defense purposes is also envisaged. This step indicates that Europe will take a more active role in Ukraine’s security.
Gold May Have Surpassed US Treasuries in Official Reserves
The sharp rise in gold prices over the past year and heavy purchases by central banks may have pushed gold ahead of US Treasuries in official reserves. According to World Gold Council data, official gold reserves outside the US exceeded 900 million troy ounces, reaching $3.82 trillion at November 30 prices. During the same period, the total value of US bonds held by foreign governments was approximately $3.88 trillion. If gold reserves are maintained until the end of the year, their value is estimated to reach $3.93 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasuries. This situation points to a structural change in reserve preferences.
Crypto Market Structure Bill Reaches Critical Stage in U.S. Senate
A revision meeting for the bill aimed at regulating the crypto market will be held on January 15 in the U.S. Senate. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott confirmed that the bill will be voted on in a public session on that date. Bipartisan support for the bill has not yet been clarified. Nevertheless, the committee appears determined to speed up the process and proceed to a vote.
U.S. Community Banks Oppose the Stablecoin Provision in the GENIUS Act
U.S. community banks have called on the Senate to close the loophole in the GENIUS Act that allows indirect interest payments. Banks are demanding that stablecoin issuers or business partners be prohibited from providing indirect returns to users. It is noted that some exchanges continue to offer rewards to stablecoin holders. The banking sector warns that this could lead to deposit outflows.
MSCI Will Not Remove Digital Asset Treasury Companies from Indexes for Now
MSCI has decided not to implement the proposal to remove Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its indexes. The current status of these companies will be maintained in the February 2026 index review. While DATCOs currently included in the index will be allowed to remain, share increases and inclusion factors will be postponed. Additionally, scale-based new additions and adjustments have been postponed to a later date. MSCI plans to initiate a broader consultation process.
Ethereum Releases 2025 Ecosystem Data
Ethereum has published an official report summarizing ecosystem developments for 2025. DeFi TVL on Ethereum exceeded $99 billion, while stablecoin settlement volume reached $18.8 trillion. L2 transaction fees fell below $0.01, while the rollup average TPS reached 5,600 for the first time. ETFs and strategic reserves held more than $35 billion in $ETH, while the on-chain RWA volume exceeded $12 billion.
BPO2 Upgrade Deployed on Ethereum Mainnet
Ethereum Foundation researcher Alex Stokes announced that the BPO2 upgrade has been activated on the mainnet. With this update, the target number of Blobs per block has been increased to 14, and the maximum capacity to 21. The BPO mechanism offers a lightweight upgrade focused solely on Blob parameters, unlike traditional hard forks. This allows the network to enable faster optimizations without disrupting the consensus structure.
Ripple Reiterates No IPO Plans
Ripple President Monica Long stated that the company has no plans for an initial public offering at this stage and will remain private. Noting that Ripple has a strong financial structure, Long said growth will continue through product development and acquisitions. The announcement came after Ripple completed a $500 million funding round in 2025 with a $40 billion valuation. It was reported that the company made strategic acquisitions worth approximately $4 billion in the recent period and that its total payment volume exceeded $95 billion.
WLFI Strategic Reserve Converted $15 Million in WBTC to WETH
The WLFI Strategic Reserve address converted its entire $WBTC holdings, worth approximately $15.07 million, to $WETH. This completely closed the address’s $WBTC position. According to tracking data, the WBTC in question was purchased at an average price of $104,710 at the beginning of 2024. This transaction resulted in a realized loss of approximately $1.98 million. The average cost of the total 4,611.65 WETH obtained by the address was calculated as $3,260.
SharpLink Increases Total Staking Rewards to 10,657 ETH
SharpLink announced that it earned 438 ETH in rewards from its Ethereum staking activities last week. This brings the company’s total staking rewards to 10,657 ETH. The latest weekly rewards are worth approximately $1.4 million at current prices. SharpLink reiterated that it has allocated all its assets to ETH and maintains a 100% staking strategy.
Dragonfly: Uniswap’s Annual Loss Could Reach $100 Million
Dragonfly investor Omar stated that despite the opening of Uniswap’s fee lock, it is still trading at a high valuation. It was stated that the protocol generated $23 million in annual operating revenue against a fully diluted valuation of approximately $5.4 billion. Supporting 20 million $UNI throughout 2025 is estimated to cost $123 million at current prices. This scenario indicates that Uniswap could post a loss of approximately $100 million by the end of the year.
