Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 68,138.0 | +0.09% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,058.85 | +0.06% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | +506.60M | Net Inflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | +157.20M | Net Inflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,293.1 | -0.46% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,946.12 | +0.81% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,666.2 | +0.21% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.306 | -0.02% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 17.93 | -8.29% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.04841 | +0.32% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 71.294 | +0.01% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 5,186.09 | +0.43% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 88.266 | -0.86% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.39 am”
Today’s Key Events
- ECB President Lagarde to Speak
- US-Iran Talks to Take Place in Geneva
- US Weekly Jobless Claims
Trump Delivers First State of the Union Address
President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address since returning to the White House; the speech lasted 1 hour and 48 minutes, making it his longest speech to date. Positioning tariffs as a long-term structural tool, Trump defended the “mirror retaliation” approach and suggested that tariffs on foreign countries could replace income tax. While indicating openness to diplomacy in Iran, he emphasized that nuclear weapons would absolutely not be permitted. On artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure, he argued that technology companies should bear their own energy costs and called on Congress to invest in infrastructure.
Nvidia Meets Expectations in Fourth Quarter
Nvidia’s fourth-quarter results met market expectations, while projections for the next quarter were strong. CEO Jensen Huang reiterated the “computing = revenue” mantra, stating that they expect the gross profit margin to remain at around 75%. The stock rose as much as 3.8% in after-hours trading and held onto its gains. New strategic details were limited in the announcements.
Tariff Message from US Trade Representative
US Trade Representative Greer said that the current 10% tariffs for some countries could be raised to 15% or higher. It was noted that the White House is preparing a statement to increase temporary tariffs were deemed appropriate. It was stated that the issue of overcapacity was raised in contacts with China, but that no new increase in Chinese tariffs was planned before Trump’s visit.
Third Round of US-Iran Talks in Geneva
The US and Iran will hold a third round of indirect talks in Geneva on February 26. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead the delegation, while the US side reiterated that they are hopeful about diplomacy but will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s enrichment capacity and the status of its current uranium stockpile will be key topics in the talks. It is reported that the parties are discussing a permanent and open-ended agreement framework.
Trump Meets with Zelensky
President Trump held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Zelensky said that trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine could take place early next month and that this could pave the way for a leaders’ summit. It was also stated that the exchange of prisoners of war would be discussed during the contacts in Geneva. The intensification of diplomatic contacts is leading to close monitoring of military risks on the ground.
Fed Officials Emphasize Inflation and Independence
- Fed Chairman Schmid said inflation remains a fundamental problem that needs to be solved but did not provide clear guidance on monetary policy. He noted that mortgage rates could be 75-100 basis points lower than they should be due to mortgage-backed securities on the Fed’s balance sheet.
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic warned that the tension between the Fed and the White House could undermine public confidence in the institution’s independence. This is seen as one of the most explicit assessments of central bank independence in recent times.
According to market pricing, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%; the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 98%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut in April is 15.9%; the probability of a 25 basis point cut by June is calculated at 39.5%.
10% Global Tariff in Effect
Trump’s 10% global tariff has come into effect; the timeline for the 15% rate remains unclear. Many companies, including FedEx, L’Oréal, Dyson, and Bausch + Lomb, have filed lawsuits against the administration seeking refunds. China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that it is evaluating the US’s new regulations and will adjust its steps regarding fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs at the appropriate time.
Circle Shows Strong Performance in Fourth Quarter
Circle’s fourth-quarter revenue exceeded expectations at $0.77 billion, while net profit rose to $0.133 billion. Earnings per share came in at $0.43, well above forecasts; shares rose more than 35%. Reserve interest income reached $0.733 billion, while the amount of USDC in circulation rose to $75.3 billion. The company maintains its strong growth outlook for 2026 and expects the RLDC margin to remain in the 38-40% range.
US Officials Discuss Israel-First Scenario
According to Politico, some US officials prefer Israel to act first in the event of potential tensions with Iran. Allegedly, in this scenario, it is believed that US intervention would find more public support after Iran’s retaliation. Sources indicate that the most likely scenario is still a joint US-Israel operation. Recent polls show that Americans support regime change in Iran to a certain extent but are not keen on putting US troops at risk.
ETHZilla Rebrands as Forum Markets
ETHZilla, formerly known for its “Ethereum treasury” concept, announced it will rebrand as Forum Markets. The company plans to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol FRMM as of March 2. With this strategic shift, the balance sheet will transition from an ETH holding model to a structure focused on tokenized real-world assets (RWA). Although the stock rose 13.3% in one day after the rebranding news, it continues to suffer significant losses compared to last year’s peak.
OCC Publishes Draft Rule for GENIUS Act
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has published a proposed draft rule for the implementation of the GENIUS Act and has requested public comment. The draft covers licensed stablecoin issuers, foreign payment stablecoin providers, and custodial activities under OCC supervision. It was noted that complementary regulations regarding BSA/AML and OFAC sanctions will proceed in coordination with the Treasury Department.
WLFI Management Staking Proposal
The WLFI project, linked to the Trump family, published its “Management Staking System Establishment” proposal. According to the draft, users will need to stake with a minimum lock-up period of 180 days to participate in management. Incentives such as USD1 access are envisaged for long-term participants, and a mechanism is planned to prioritize projects that actively collaborate with the ecosystem.
CFTC Intervenes in Prediction Markets
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it has full oversight authority over illegal activities in prediction markets. This announcement came after the Kalshi platform reported two cases of insider trading to the agency. As prediction markets grow, regulatory oversight and state-level initiatives are also increasing.
